2018OC1678 here. Any hope?
- Thread starter DV4ROGER
- Start date
One thing I can not understand. Why did they select so many people from Europe? Last year (DV2017), they seleceted 27000 people, and they gave 20500 visas, 2000 over quota. In DV2018 they selected over 40000 people. They knew that 27000 people is more than enough and still they decided to select over 40000 people, 50% more than previous year. I can't see any logical explenation for that.
The question is that the KCC will focus on result-oriented or on progress (ap & ready clutter) oriented? I mean that if they want to give 50K visas, existing Africa and Asia pace will not help 50K quota. KCC trust ap and ready clutter and know or calculate maximum risk . Imagine that Africa will see 20K, Asia 5K and Others 2K. Rest of visas are around 22-23K. But there is no hope for extreme jump for next visa bulletin.
The May Monthly still shows strong demand from U2. Ukraine is already at an all-time record and still going (became current just in May). Uzbekistan is going fast, too, with an expected wave of AP clearances looming. The demand from the rest of Europe is growing with CP visa density now at 550/1000.
Not knowing when the AP clearances claim visa numbers from VO and the still open question regarding redistribution mean that I can't call 2018EU248## a safe number. For now, 2018EU248## is still in the ballpark — comfortably so.
Yes, everything DV4Roger predicted for EU was wrong. Please, stop giving false hope to people. This is playing with their emotions and dreams.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
In Roger’s defense, it was a PREDICTION. He never claimed it was a fact. We’ve also had people yell at and insult posters here before when being realistic about chances. It’s all guesswork and you should treat it as such.
It’s both these extremes of responses that to me makes it not worth it even bothering to get into the numbers debate tbh.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Woah! That's an over the top comment!
DV4Roger has put in extensive time in helping to get under the covers of the laws that control the lottery. He has calculated the quotas and explained the method of that calculation. He expressed an opinion on this thread - as anyone is entitled to do - and also on this thread there is a measure of caution expressed. Everyone who wins the lottery is supposed to be an adult, with at least a high school education. So - everyone should be able to understand the difference between speculation and certain fact. Roger himself pointed out this would be a test of the theory. THAT is only spreading false hope if you choose to cherrypick comments without listening to the whole point or conversation.