DV 2016 Winners Meet Here
- Thread starter n.n.
- Start date
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yes, you entered the 2017 draw - but results are released on MAY 3, 2016.
jamiechabs
Member
It's really interesting with what am seeing here. EU numbers and OC shown are not existing and if at all AF is heading into numbers where the density is low I think big jumps will come in guys I prefer just waiting onto our fate than speculating cos it has already shown that no one is accurate with these numbers
Guarapa
Member
Good philosophy. Best is to wait for the upcoming Visa Bulletins. If it is meant for you, it will certainly come to you, no matter what. Keep calm and be prepared. Best of luck!
Ham64112
Member
Guarapa that's is relay a good enragement although its had to keep calm since its what some one is thinking about most of the time he/she is by himself and for Jamiechabs said he is thinking AF meant have a big jump since the numbers are not accurate ' the biggest jump so far has been 5k do you guys think they can jump with 10k and if they do don't you think they would pass 50k visas as planned and yet they cant pass 50000
MONTH OUT ADDED VISAS CURRENT MONTH INTERVIEW
OCT 9100 9100 OCT
OCT 3900 13000 NOV
NOV 1500 14500 DEC
DEC 1000 15500 JAN
JAN 1700 17200 FEB
FEB 1500 18700 MAR
MAR 5100 23800 APRIL
ARLP 4500 28300 MAY
MAY COMING SOON JUN
hope my table is right
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Guarapa that's is relay a good enragement although its had to keep calm since its what some one is thinking about most of the time he/she is by himself and for Jamiechabs said he is thinking AF meant have a big jump since the numbers are not accurate ' the biggest jump so far has been 5k do you guys think they can jump with 10k and if they do don't you think they would pass 50k visas as planned and yet they cant pass 50000
MONTH OUT ADDED VISAS CURRENT MONTH INTERVIEW
OCT 9100 9100 OCT
OCT 3900 13000 NOV
NOV 1500 14500 DEC
DEC 1000 15500 JAN
JAN 1700 17200 FEB
FEB 1500 18700 MAR
MAR 5100 23800 APRIL
ARLP 4500 28300 MAY
MAY COMING SOON JUN
hope my table is right
The density drops after 30k (which helps pace) and the backlog is a decreasing burden. There are 4 VBs left, so there is more than enough time to get to 50k. However, the pace and the quota are two different things....
The last case number for Europe was 24517, right? How can this be explained?
Is the first post of this forum...
Britsimon
Super Moderator
N.N. Please update us about your friend. As pointed out above, there are no EU numbers showing in CEAC above 24517, so you friends case seems "odd". Was there a misunderstanding? Is it actually a lower number or an AF region case?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
No news yet.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yup, I have manually tested all numbers in that range
LOL Susie - I could have saved you the trouble. I'm checking the 24500 to 28000 range every day - but its nice to not be the lone voice in the wilderness.
By the way - I suppose what I haven't made clear is that the 24517 number actually makes sense. Before the CEAC data was calculated I I had originally speculated the highest EU number would be in the 25 to 26k range (based on the announced selectee number of 27011, and CEAC data from last year). However, we can do a common sense check on whether we have all the cases for 27011 people in the file based on the derivative rate for the region. We know that derivative rates vary somewhat by country, but we can use a regional average for a broad picture. So - if we take the EU regional number at 1.8, that would give an expectation like this 27011/1.8 = 15006 cases. On the first day of getting the CEAC data I noted we actually had 14915 cases (with a max of 24517). So - that is pretty close.
Furthermore, the latest CEAC file shows we have 8510 cases at NVC or in transit. Each of those cases only has one person since the family data for those cases is not in CEAC yet. The EU cases that are assigned to embassies is 6405 cases with a total family headcount of 14607. That means the derivative rate for those that have responded and been scheduled is 2.28. That is a large increase from the 1.8 - but it is as I have predicted. The growth is due to births, marriages and so on.
So - if we applied the 1.8 and 2.28 rates to the 8510 cases not yet scheduled that would mean we would have between 15318 to 19402 family on those unscheduled cases. Adding those numbers to the family we know about (14607) gives us a total of between 29925 and 34009. Both are higher that the 27011 originally named as winners.
So - I think it is safe to assume we are not missing any cases for our original 27011 - and the derivative growth rate goes to validate what I had previously explained on my blog.
Here is the link where I explained that concept in early January.
http://britsimonsays.com/2016-analysis-derivative-growth-rate/
Hypochondriac
Member
I recently moved to NYC on DV program. Great city and very interesting to be here. It's very expensive though to start a life here without family, relatives or friends and very hard to find a proper job unless you know somebody or have any links to somebody so I decided to be homeless here until I can be certain that I am up on my feet and I have a constant income. Is staying in a city shelter viewed as becoming a public charge ? The thing is that if you are homeless, they passed a new law here that you cannot remain on the street once the temperature drops below 33F or something and everybody has to go to a city shelter. There are also places where you can get free meals and nobody will die of hunger here but is this what they call becoming a public charge ?
What did I just read? No, no. I do not think this i a good idea. I suggest move to a smaller, cheaper city until you get back on your feet and later move to New York. Why di you move to New York in the first place? And what about affidavit of support?
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure about the public charge angle (because I don't know who actually funds those shelters) but it's probably going to be very difficult to get a job providing a steady income if you're homeless. What you gonna do when it's above 33F, no-one is obliged to take you in and you can't shower in time for your job interview? What you gonna do with your stuff, take it with you to the interview in a shopping cart, or leave it behind somewhere to get stolen? Etc.
Also most people are not homeless "by choice", most are homeless either because they have mental health issues or drug dependency issues. If you are obviously homeless when you go for an interview, it is likely your potential employer will decide you fall into one of these two groups which will heavily disadvantage your chances of a job offer.
Aldo gave a suggestion about a cheaper city. But if you wanna stay in one of the most expensive cities in the US anyway, I'd suggest finding a very cheap place to stay (does the YMCA still do stuff like that?) and get a minimum wage job, that will get you on your feet.
Being homeless by choice is a pretty good start to being homeless not-by-choice, I reckon. Apart from it's unsafe, etc.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Aldo! You just got your 2NL??