DV 2015 Oceania winners
- Thread starter Kellie
- Start date
Hahaha Emily. I have packed my entire life into 3 suitcases, a backpack and a lap top bag. All my books are on my Ipad and I have about 8 pairs of shoes that I actually wear, and that includes my ugg boot slippers lol. I have decided to ship the one bag because it is too heavy to lift @ 30kgs. I am sending with Send My Bag. It is $379 from my door to my US door, that includes a $50 extra because I am not in the city here. It seems about the best deal from what I can see, and I just ring up and it's done. I am just buying all new when I get there. I will be going for the minimalist look as I have a houseful of stuff here I don't use and have decided I can live without it all.
I like that approach. We kinda figured we'd do the same.
As it is with flights it looks like we can take 2x 22kg each. That seems like a lot of stuff, 4x 22kg bags plus carry-on.
Hershal
Active Member
God. My wife would be exactly the same. So much stuff to take
Yeah 22kgs is a pretty decent amount. If you fly with Southwest Airlines in the US then they have the same amount included in their fares. So I find that super helpful. I am not taking too much as I figure that I don't really know where I might end up, and I don't want to be moving stuff constantly. If I end up buying a house I will get some of my treasures sent over. For now I am making do with photos on a hard drive and a few of my favourite little things to remind me of home, and I mean little. The big things have to stay. I have never been so ruthless lol
And @EmilyW how can anyone wear 200 pairs of shoes???? Not being a shoe person I find that fascinating
And @EmilyW how can anyone wear 200 pairs of shoes???? Not being a shoe person I find that fascinating
EmilyW
Well-Known Member
I can't part with my shoes @cj27!
I bought these in Amarillo Texas two years ago. By far my favourite pair of shoes / boots. I intend to be buried in them!
@Deb7a, I have shoes that I've since I was 20. So the collection has built up over the years. It has the basics (pumps, boots, sandals etc) but is also has some 'specials' in it like the Old Gringo, Manolos, Jimmy Choo. I literally have a shoe for any occasion. I wear a FCUK blue striped frock and have the Nine West blue patent leather heels to match. I'm very very shallow, just in case it ain't obvious LOL.
I bought these in Amarillo Texas two years ago. By far my favourite pair of shoes / boots. I intend to be buried in them!
@Deb7a, I have shoes that I've since I was 20. So the collection has built up over the years. It has the basics (pumps, boots, sandals etc) but is also has some 'specials' in it like the Old Gringo, Manolos, Jimmy Choo. I literally have a shoe for any occasion. I wear a FCUK blue striped frock and have the Nine West blue patent leather heels to match. I'm very very shallow, just in case it ain't obvious LOL.
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Hershal
Active Member
Mine has gone to optmized straight away, My Wife just says accepted,
alwaysrose123
Member
Emily....Hun... those are killer legs!!! did you wear those in your interview... I would have issued you the visa just by looking at your legs... hehehehe... sorry I had to say that... sexy legs...!!! go well my friend with your shoes and all..
did you wear those in your interview... I would have issued you the visa just by looking at your legs... hehehehe... sorry I had to say that... sexy legs...!!! go well my friend with your shoes and all..
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Hi all,
I am a New Zealander selected for DV2015 with case number 22xx. I've been trying to work out the likelihood of my number being called. I'm not counting on it, but it's interesting to speculate.
I made up this graph which shows the past trends:
Hopefully DV2014 was the exception we are now back to the previous trend of all numbers going current. Does anyone else have any insights into this?
I am a New Zealander selected for DV2015 with case number 22xx. I've been trying to work out the likelihood of my number being called. I'm not counting on it, but it's interesting to speculate.
I made up this graph which shows the past trends:
Hopefully DV2014 was the exception we are now back to the previous trend of all numbers going current. Does anyone else have any insights into this?
CBDK
Active Member
Congrats on 'winning' the lottery. I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news but your number is in the 'pretty unlikely' range. According to all predictions we are on a similar trajectory to DV2014 and so should end up in a similar spot. The thinking now is that rather than DV2014 being a debacle, it is actually going to be the norm. Anyway, @Britsimon knows a lot more than I do so it might be worth you checking out his blog at http://britsimonsays.com/ which explains everything about the DV process.
Good luck anyway - there are a few people on here who we are collectively willing to get over the line
P.S. I love a good graph being the visual learner that I am - thanks!
guestgulkan
Well-Known Member
Are these the ones as your facebook photo?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I'm sorry to say, you have no chance. The highest OC number this year is 2306. That case would be for the 3499th selectee. You are a few cases less than that, but we already know enough to see that numbers cannot go as high as you need. As of a few days ago, OC had issued 285. We can expect that to rise over 300 by the end of this month, and once you add in AP cases that get approved, AoS cases, and cases from the first 875 that had late submission of the DS260, we can be pretty confident that the first 875 will have yielded about 400 issuances or more about half the quota. So, based on how things are going, the number will cut off at a little more than last year, but not enough to keep your hope alive.
I'm sorry. I hope you applied for DV2016...
connectedspace
Active Member
Nice graph! But those up-shooting tails at the end are an issue.
We can't look for precedent in previous years going 'current'. The reason is that in 2013 and before, the number of selectees was low enough that there were visas for everyone. This is no longer the case.
It's more instructive to look for precedent in the number of visas issued per case number in previous years. In this way, if we know OC's quota of visas, we can predict what the end-of-year cutoff will be.
So looking at previous years, we see the following:
FY 2014: 0.526 visas/cn
FY 2013: 0.514 visas/cn
Looking back over the years, your graph usefully shows that this ratio is more-or-less the same each year.
Now let's be conservative and take the higher density, 2014 number as representative. That means we'll have roughly the same number of visas issued per case number as last year. If your number is 2250, then we will need a quota of at least 1184 visas to reach your case number by the end of the year. The best quota estimates on this site have been made by user DV4ROGER, who puts the OC figure at 831.
A quota of 831 means an e-o-y cutoff of 1580.
Unfortunately, DV4ROGER's number is looking closer to the mark than a quota of 1184 at this stage: if we were to reach a CN of 2250, we'd need increases of 294 case numbers per month until the end of the year. Up until now, we've been seeing increases of 100 CN per month.
So your number will almost certainly not be reached. By 'almost certainly not', consider the chance of the Greens winning next week's NSW election. That, I'm sorry to say, approximates your chances of being called up.
EmilyW
Well-Known Member
@guestgulkan, they ARE the ones in my Facebook photo. Love those boots like I love cheese.
@CBDK, I remember my husband dropping me off at Cavenders saying 'So, I'm guessing I won't see much change from $1000'. And he was right. But I had been hankering for a pair of Old Gringos for YEARS. I wasn't about to leave Amarillo without a pair.
@alwaysrose123, thanks for the compliment. I won't be wearing those at the interview. At this point, I'll be wearing far more conservative pumps. I want to make a good impression and all.
@CBDK, I remember my husband dropping me off at Cavenders saying 'So, I'm guessing I won't see much change from $1000'. And he was right. But I had been hankering for a pair of Old Gringos for YEARS. I wasn't about to leave Amarillo without a pair.
@alwaysrose123, thanks for the compliment.
I won't be wearing those at the interview. At this point, I'll be wearing far more conservative pumps. I want to make a good impression and all.Good luck anyway - there are a few people on here who we are collectively willing to get over the line
Thanks, I appreciate it.
@Britsimon yep I applied for DV 2016 too, so fingers crossed for May 5!
It's more instructive to look for precedent in the number of visas issued per case number in previous years. In this way, if we know OC's quota of visas, we can predict what the end-of-year cutoff will be.
So looking at previous years, we see the following:
FY 2014: 0.526 visas/cn
FY 2013: 0.514 visas/cn
Looking back over the years, your graph usefully shows that this ratio is more-or-less the same each year.
Thanks for the info. Just curious what your source is for those ratios. So do we know what the total case numbers issued and visas issued were for OC DV2013 and OC DV2014?
connectedspace
Active Member
Thanks, I appreciate it.
@Britsimon yep I applied for DV 2016 too, so fingers crossed for May 5!
Thanks for the info. Just curious what your source is for those ratios. So do we know what the total case numbers issued and visas issued were for OC DV2013 and OC DV2014?
Sure, here you go:
1. Source of number of visas issued in each year: here
2. Source for 2014 max CN is at Britsimon's site, here. That data was extracted by a script that mines the Department of State's CEAC website. The highest called CN in 2014 was 1448
3. The 2013 max CN is trickier. You'll find it if you search for 2013 DV CEAC data on google and do some sifting. It was, however, very close to 1630.
Good luck! And if you are drawn in DV 2016, you want your number to be below 1400. I'm praying for this very thing to happen to me!
usken go
Well-Known Member
lively thread there guys, shoes ,how they fit and so on.
Our own 'Warren Buffet" is known to posses four good but modestly priced suits at any one time and he drives a 1500cc mitsubishi lancer. A new one int he wardrobe= one out to some needy guy.
Ilike the graph By Tom Thumb.
Our own 'Warren Buffet" is known to posses four good but modestly priced suits at any one time and he drives a 1500cc mitsubishi lancer. A new one int he wardrobe= one out to some needy guy.
Ilike the graph By Tom Thumb.