vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Haha now I know how he looks like nice and ugly. thank franky
Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2013
- Thread starter Rayme
- Start date
Haha now I know how he looks like nice and ugly. thank franky
and Europe ?
Have you seen the new visa bulletin archive? It's sexaaay!
http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin.html
http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin.html
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
I have a spreadsheet of AF numbers going back about 8 years. While movement is very slow this year, it's not as slow as the cutoff years. But given the extra selectees, I am thinking it probably will be cut off in Sept, albeit at a pretty high number. Last year cutoff was around 81K in August before going current in September, so I would guess a cutoff in Sept in the high 90s based on that - but this is just a guess subject to all sorts of mitigating or exacerbating factors 
I don't have data on record for other regions to compare.
I don't have data on record for other regions to compare.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I have a spreadsheet of AF numbers going back about 8 years. While movement is very slow this year, it's not as slow as the cutoff years. But given the extra selectees, I am thinking it probably will be cut off in Sept, albeit at a pretty high number. Last year cutoff was around 81K in August before going current in September, so I would guess a cutoff in Sept in the high 90s based on that - but this is just a guess subject to all sorts of mitigating or exacerbating factors
I don't have data on record for other regions to compare.
Careful Susie, you'll get dragged in to the endless prediction/guessing threads.
Sloner
Active Member
Subject
Can somebody change the subject of this topic to "Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2014" please
PS: I'm reading this forum almost everyday, and even if I don't make enough posts I would say thanks very much for all your efforts, thanks to britsimon, your posts decrease much stresses.
Best regards.
Can somebody change the subject of this topic to "Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2014" please
PS: I'm reading this forum almost everyday, and even if I don't make enough posts I would say thanks very much for all your efforts, thanks to britsimon, your posts decrease much stresses.
Best regards.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
samolaniyi
Registered Users (C)
Yes. In July many may not like It's sexaaay!
That's true
franko
Well-Known Member
Yes. In July many may not like It's sexaaay!
Slon'man! What are you trying to say? I thought you were trying to convince us that everybody will be current this year? Have you changed your mind and are saying that in July a lot of people will be upset because September won't be current?
franko
Well-Known Member
I was thinking the same thing Franko.... Wasnt Sloner the one saying that we would all be current.
Just like Sandy Claws ...
Although I do not dine there, if I won't get current I will demand KFC bucket from Sloner to cover moral damages that he caused
Britsimon
Super Moderator
:d
although i do not dine there, if i won't get current i will demand kfc bucket from sloner to cover moral damages that he caused
lolol
OnTheGo
Registered Users (C)
Now it is time to make predictions for the March bulletin
My wife has been pretty good at predicting the numbers for EU for the past 3 months:
January 13687 (13200 in VB issued in Nov)
February 16750 (16700 in VB issued in Dec)
March 20250 (20050 in VB issued in Jan)
Her predictions for next months:
April 28560
May 34375
June 38750
July 41250
August 41250+
September 41250+
Hope the Oracle from Brussels is right, and that the last 2 months of the FY will continue to see an increase in the cutoff numbers
That would be super awesome, as it would mean we will be current by June (one to two months earlier than I expect).
However, that would be a huge jump from March to April by over 8,500 ... slowing down to roughly 6k to 4k to 3k.
Why the expectation of such a massive jump betw. those two months specifically?
What date will the March visa bulletin be published (showing April cutoffs)?
I find her prediction a little optimistic, especially for April but i have little words to say given the predictions she had for the 3 past months
The reason for the big jump in April is it should follow a similar pattern than for dv13 and high entry countries, such as Uzbekistan, continue to have a slower progression of their cutoff, enabling other CN to progress more rapidly. The high progression is for the upcoming 2-3 months. Then the cutoff will progress less rapidly, reaching an asymptote, where DOS just allow the last winning entries to fill the quota. They do this at a lower pace at the end, not to invite unecessarily people to interviews. She believes the progression will follow an S-shaped curve.
OnTheGo
Registered Users (C)
I find her prediction a little optimistic, especially for April but i have little words to say given the predictions she had for the 3 past months
The reason for the big jump in April is it should follow a similar pattern than for dv13 and high entry countries, such as Uzbekistan, continue to have a slower progression of their cutoff, enabling other CN to progress more rapidly. The high progression is for the upcoming 2-3 months. Then the cutoff will progress less rapidly, reaching an asymptote, where DOS just allow the last winning entries to fill the quota. They do this at a lower pace at the end, not to invite unecessarily people to interviews. She believes the progression will follow an S-shaped curve.
Hm, interesting. In DV13 it was about a 6,500 jump between those months, whereas DV14 has already reached a higher cutoff for Feb and March than in the corresponding months of DV13. So I am not sure about the 8k increase, but I have no idea about any Uzbekistan factor. Personally, I still think the jump from Mar to Apr will only be a max of 6k, perhaps even under resulting in April cutoff for EU: 26250 (just a sporadic wild guess...lol)