Why the CN processing were so slow this year?
- Thread starter scusyxx
- Start date
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I suspect you have compared this year (DV2013) to last year (DV2012). The process in DV2012 was not at all normal due to a screw up that meant they released flawed results, revoked those results a few weeks later then restarted. You can't compare this year to that year and in general the pace this year seems, to me, similar to other recent years.
Yes,
britsimom, yes comparing DV2012 and DV2013.
I've got very good offer from a company in US and they asked me to start in December 1st. My case # is EU10XXX. I am worried that my number will be current in November when I look at the previous year. Do you have any estimate of my CN for this year?
Thanks
britsimom, yes comparing DV2012 and DV2013.
I've got very good offer from a company in US and they asked me to start in December 1st. My case # is EU10XXX. I am worried that my number will be current in November when I look at the previous year. Do you have any estimate of my CN for this year?
Thanks
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Truthfully, we won't know for sure until the first few VBs have been published for DV2014. However, in 2013 your number would have been in January, so it will likely be current in December earliest, more likely January. So if you have a way to start work on December 1st on a non immigrant visa you could swap to Adjustment of Status while in the States. However, if you need the GC to start work with the US company you can't really be sure you'll have that until sometime in December or more likely January.
I am in H1B currently but it is a nonprofit organization so I can't transfer it to profit company. So I sent my documents asking for CP for faster processing instead of AOS. The company specifically asked for GC to start working and they said the offer is contingent upon permanent residency and they asked me to secure it by Dec 1st. I think I should explain to them my situation better.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Whether it was because of the issue with the redraw, or worried about the economy, or whatever, visa issuance was very low last year - only around 40000 were issued, whereas it is usually much closer to the 50000 limit. I guess that's why regions went current so early, but that was unusual vs previous years as britsimon says. You also had - reported both here and on my home country forum - instances where KCC actually emailed successful applicants who hadn't sent their documents in to chase up. I don't know for sure, but i don't think that's normal. For the guy whose case I'm familiar with, he got the "reminder" email sometime during July (after all numbers for our region, and I think for all of them) were current, and had his DV by early September. Judging by the progress of numbers this year they are seeing a lot more take-up than last year, though of course we will only know for sure when the final numbers are released. A somewhat better US economy may be part reason, possibly the exclusion of Bangladesh (reported to have had a very high number of rejections in the past) also a factor in that Asia would have had a higher % of successfuk interviews as a resuit of that. For my region, processing was the slowest it had been for a few years (I don't have the numbers to hand at the moment) if you judge it by the progression of case number per month.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
CP will require you (along with family if you have them) going back to the country where you'll be processed for a significant amount of time. For CP you have to have the medicals, do the interview and wait for your passport. That can't happen in a few days so you will need to be able to take some length of time to do that. AOS is longer, but can be done while you carry on working.
I am 98% sure you won't be able to get your GC by Dec 1, and you cannot afford to be out of status (as that could jeopardise your DV situation). If the new employer won't delay, then you should probably pass on that job and look for another opportunity later.
You can apply for AOS as soon as you number is announced current in VB (if it is announced current for January 1st, that will be before mid November), but anyway not earlier than October 1st. Together with application for AOS you also apply for EAD. If EAD is not ready within 60 days, you get into USCIS office and get interim EAD. You can start working right away with EAD or interim EAD.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Raevsky, given that his H1-B was cap exempt (and the new one would not be cap exempt) what is the basis for the EAD application. I know nothing about that, so I'm unclear about the EAD in particular. Does it given permission to stay and work even without the H1-B being valid?
I-765 (EAD application) could accompany any kind of AOS application (I-485), including DV based AOS application. Moreover, current fee for AOS already includes fee for I-765.
Pending I-485 application gives permission to stay until there is a decision on I-485. It does not give permission to work. He could still continue working on his current employer though as long as his H-1B status is valid.
At the same time approved (not pending) EAD gives permission to work for ANY employer (but does not give permission to stay). Expiration date of the EAD could be slightly longer than date of I-485 decision.
A the same time switching the employer on EAD would invalidate H-1B status (but he would still be in pending for AOS status; that might create problem for dependents if they do not apply for AOS with him), and would create problems with travel before GC until he gets Advance Parole, for which he also needs to apply (but fee is included).
Pending I-485 application gives permission to stay until there is a decision on I-485. It does not give permission to work. He could still continue working on his current employer though as long as his H-1B status is valid.
At the same time approved (not pending) EAD gives permission to work for ANY employer (but does not give permission to stay). Expiration date of the EAD could be slightly longer than date of I-485 decision.
A the same time switching the employer on EAD would invalidate H-1B status (but he would still be in pending for AOS status; that might create problem for dependents if they do not apply for AOS with him), and would create problems with travel before GC until he gets Advance Parole, for which he also needs to apply (but fee is included).
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
Excellent - thank you Raevsky - that sounds like a possible option - but with pros and cons.
Thanks for replies guys. I have one more question, for EU region the October numbers are usually high, then every month they increase it another ~2K and so on. Why don't they add another 7-8K each month since we know that they are capable of processing that amount of people in October?
The problem is with quotas. They cannot issue more visas than allowed by law.
DV 12 was a big mess, and was really underfilled. DV13 had started before the final stats for DV12 were available to DOS. Would that explain why they did things differently (125,000 selectees, higher CN numbers) only for DV14? DV13 looks really like DV10 and DV11. DV14 looks on the other hand very different.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The speed of processing depends I would guess on several factors.
1. The administrative resources at KCC to perform checking and setting up the appointments at the consuls.
2. The administrative resources/appointments at the consular offices to perform the interviews, manage the paperwork and issue visas.
3. The need to slow the processing down to ensure the various limits are not being met from the in process applications.
4. The number of people who do not submit the 122/230.
5. Disqualifications and denials.
On month 1 (October) each year a fairly large group of CNs are released. At the beginning only factor 4 is an issue. Factors 1 and 2 aren't a big deal yet because they are starting with a clean slate.
By month 2 factors 1, 2, are impacting the process and KCC are beginning to confirm their assumptions re factor 5. There may be some month 1 work remaining for consular offices and KCC So, the additional CNs released shouldn't be as high as in month 1.
By month 3 there is work left over from months 1 and 2, factors 1 and 2 are becoming an issue and there is lots of lost productivity for Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year. Happy holidays, but additional CNs will be low.
Month 4, 5 and 6 similar to month 3.
Month 7, 8, 9 all the factors playing their part including factor 3.
By month 10 and 11 there is pressure to get to CURRENT to give the AOS people a chance and to begin to wind down the year. However, I don't see how the massive backlog of remaining entries can be handled because of factors 1, 2 and 3. Factors 4 and 5 are much more known by now, but I believe there is still a bottleneck around factors 1 and 2.
Month 12 is rushing to finish and get the final few applications done with a very careful eye on factor 3.
Europe in DV2013 got around 33k done in 10 months - 3300 per month. I think that is pretty close to the processing abilities determined by factors 1 and 2. That suggests to me that 40k in a year is roughly the limit for processing - and whilst they could stretch that a tad it would depend on the other factors. Previous years work out similar (excluding 2012), and in fact the highest number before current is often lower than 33k - so I am comfortable saying the capacity of the system (factors 1 and 2) is around 3k to 3.5k per month.
Happy to receive feedback on these thoughts...
1. The administrative resources at KCC to perform checking and setting up the appointments at the consuls.
2. The administrative resources/appointments at the consular offices to perform the interviews, manage the paperwork and issue visas.
3. The need to slow the processing down to ensure the various limits are not being met from the in process applications.
4. The number of people who do not submit the 122/230.
5. Disqualifications and denials.
On month 1 (October) each year a fairly large group of CNs are released. At the beginning only factor 4 is an issue. Factors 1 and 2 aren't a big deal yet because they are starting with a clean slate.
By month 2 factors 1, 2, are impacting the process and KCC are beginning to confirm their assumptions re factor 5. There may be some month 1 work remaining for consular offices and KCC So, the additional CNs released shouldn't be as high as in month 1.
By month 3 there is work left over from months 1 and 2, factors 1 and 2 are becoming an issue and there is lots of lost productivity for Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year. Happy holidays, but additional CNs will be low.
Month 4, 5 and 6 similar to month 3.
Month 7, 8, 9 all the factors playing their part including factor 3.
By month 10 and 11 there is pressure to get to CURRENT to give the AOS people a chance and to begin to wind down the year. However, I don't see how the massive backlog of remaining entries can be handled because of factors 1, 2 and 3. Factors 4 and 5 are much more known by now, but I believe there is still a bottleneck around factors 1 and 2.
Month 12 is rushing to finish and get the final few applications done with a very careful eye on factor 3.
Europe in DV2013 got around 33k done in 10 months - 3300 per month. I think that is pretty close to the processing abilities determined by factors 1 and 2. That suggests to me that 40k in a year is roughly the limit for processing - and whilst they could stretch that a tad it would depend on the other factors. Previous years work out similar (excluding 2012), and in fact the highest number before current is often lower than 33k - so I am comfortable saying the capacity of the system (factors 1 and 2) is around 3k to 3.5k per month.
Happy to receive feedback on these thoughts...
I believe in your analysis.
For factors 1 and 2, the burden is probably more on the consular posts than on KCC, who just send by mail the forms after they arrange for an interview with each consulate (I doubt they do this over the phone, but probably use an electronic system such as something like MS Outlook calendar). This burden is spread between the different consular posts. 3300 interviews per month for EU would mean around 200 interviews per working day. Does not seem a lot given the number of consular posts. I am sure they can beat that. Some posts obviously will get more interviews (Russia, Poland) than others (Lichenstein, Vatican City,...), but they should be staffed accordingly. I believe more on factors 3, 4 and 5 as the limiting factors for the CN processing.