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Dv 2014 european winers here

Britisimon, let's count. In 2012-2013 he was appointed in Warsaw 1058 interview. 1058-786 = 272 missing interviews in CEAC. KCC in DV2013 worked perfectly. Do you think it makes a mistake in 2014? I think not.

These data can be used for interest. Make predictions on them lead to error.
 
Sloner said:
Britisimon, let's count. In 2012-2013 he was appointed in Warsaw 1058 interview. 1058-786 = 272 missing interviews in CEAC. KCC in DV2013 worked perfectly. Do you think it makes a mistake in 2014? I think not.

These data can be used for interest. Make predictions on them lead to error.
Click to expand...

Errr, that was kind of my point about you using 2012 data.... but OK!
 
another high case number

Hi there!

Here's another high case number (from myself): 2014EU00050XXX
AUSTRIA

Hope we make it!

Cheers, acl
 
Will the higher numbers ever be current?

What do you all think?

With the January numbers released, do you think the CNs on the higher end (anything above 50k) will ever be current?

Looking at the January numbers, I am starting to lose any little hope that I have.

Also, am I doing the math correctly here?
The interviews started in October 2013. By the end of February 2014 (in 5 months), they will have gone through about 16500 numbers (3300/month). From this, would it be correct to infer that at the end of FY14, only numbers upto about 40k will be processed? (assuming they do not run out earlier)

NOTE: My CN is 54k
 
theTurk said:
What do you all think?

With the January numbers released, do you think the CNs on the higher end (anything above 50k) will ever be current?

Looking at the January numbers, I am starting to lose any little hope that I have.

Also, am I doing the math correctly here?
The interviews started in October 2013. By the end of February 2014 (in 5 months), they will have gone through about 16500 numbers (3300/month). From this, would it be correct to infer that at the end of FY14, only numbers upto about 40k will be processed? (assuming they do not run out earlier)

NOTE: My CN is 54k
Click to expand...

Your maths is correct. For numbers higher than 40k to get interviews the pace has to be increased. Typically the pace does go up and down from month to month and the first three months are usually the slowest.

However, in my honest opinion EU54k has a very small chance because there are many more selectees this year than a normal year (about 30% more). I'm sorry.
 
I have lost my hope...The interview for february are low...

I don't think to get one interview ..

CN: EU 36***

Good Luck!
 
Elona said:
I have lost my hope...The interview for february are low...

I don't think to get one interview ..

CN: EU 36***

Good Luck!
Click to expand...

No worries, I guess you won't have a problem to get an interview. From all I recognized during the last months it might be a little bit risky for cn above the mid 40k for Europe. Press thumbs that I'll be wrong and the cn will climp to max selected....

Best regards
Mike
 
mikettl said:
No worries, I guess you won't have a problem to get an interview. From all I recognized during the last months it might be a little bit risky for cn above the mid 40k for Europe. Press thumbs that I'll be wrong and the cn will climp to max selected....

Best regards
Mike
Click to expand...


Thank you!

Best regards
Elona
 
Sloner said:
It is likely in April.
Click to expand...



on april for my case number (CN286xx) ??
no, please, too soon....
and I don't guess that in the next 2 months there will be so a big jump
having the inteview on may/june let's me make the first entry on october 2014, it would be good for us.
 
Sloner said:
It is likely in April.
Click to expand...

deutmark said:
on april for my case number (CN286xx) ??
no, please, too soon....
and I don't guess that in the next 2 months there will be so a big jump
having the inteview on may/june let's me make the first entry on october 2014, it would be good for us.
Click to expand...

That would be a very nice big jump - and not ridiculous. I think it is possible for April, but May is more likely.
 
deutmark said:
on april for my case number (CN286xx) ??
no, please, too soon....
and I don't guess that in the next 2 months there will be so a big jump
having the inteview on may/june let's me make the first entry on october 2014, it would be good for us.
Click to expand...

There will be a big jump from march actualy its a jumb comparitively to the slow move that we
Experienced in these last three months.
But I still think simon is right may is more probably for u to get an interview.
 
These are the highest published CNs as per Visa bulletin going back to 2008:

Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Oct 6600 9100 9600 8500 5700 8000
Nov 11000 9500 12500 11000 7000 9800
Dec 12900 12400 13600 13500 9250 12500
Jan 15400 19750 15400 16500 10950 13200
Feb 17100 22400 17600 22000 13400 Feb?
Mar 19800 24700 20450 26500 16200 Mar?
Apr 20800 26300 23200 32000 22850 Apr?
May 24900 29250 27800 40000 27500 May?
Jun 28000 31000 29450 Current 31000 Jun?
Jul Current 32000 33000 Current 33000 Jul?
Aug Current Current Current Current Current Aug?
Sep Current Current Current Current Current Sep?


Going by our number (35xxx) and looking at the ACTUAL HISTORIC numbers (!), I still feel pretty "borderline" and an interview *might* come late in the financial year, but you never know. In fact NONE OF US will know, it's all speculation.
One thing that is certain: That we will only find out towards the very end, and that is pretty nerve wrecking.
Anybody below the 33k CN mark...I would feel rather "safe"...as I believe in facts based on history more than in fiction based on speculation (lol).
 
OnTheGo said:
These are the highest published CNs as per Visa bulletin going back to 2008:

Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Oct 6600 9100 9600 8500 5700 8000
Nov 11000 9500 12500 11000 7000 9800
Dec 12900 12400 13600 13500 9250 12500
Jan 15400 19750 15400 16500 10950 13200
Feb 17100 22400 17600 22000 13400 Feb?
Mar 19800 24700 20450 26500 16200 Mar?
Apr 20800 26300 23200 32000 22850 Apr?
May 24900 29250 27800 40000 27500 May?
Jun 28000 31000 29450 Current 31000 Jun?
Jul Current 32000 33000 Current 33000 Jul?
Aug Current Current Current Current Current Aug?
Sep Current Current Current Current Current Sep?


Going by our number (35xxx) and looking at the ACTUAL HISTORIC numbers (!), I still feel pretty "borderline" and an interview *might* come late in the financial year, but you never know. In fact NONE OF US will know, it's all speculation.
One thing that is certain: That we will only find out towards the very end, and that is pretty nerve wrecking.
Anybody below the 33k CN mark...I would feel rather "safe"...as I believe in facts based on history more than in fiction based on speculation (lol).
Click to expand...

OTG you are correct to look at history, but you have only posted a fraction of the story.

In addition to the above, you need to understand the regional quotas and also the global number of visas issued. If you take a look at the table below you will see how EU only took around 14k visas in 2008 & 2009 AND those two years were dramatically underfilled globally. 2010 & 2011 were more "normal" with just over 16k visas and total numbers just over the 50k mark (but still below the 55k) total excluding NACARA. However, I believe we will see an EU visas issued of >17k this year and if EU stays ahead of other regions (as is it currently) then we could see EU numbers quite a bit higher than that.

Furthermore, the historical data shows the VBs going current for the last month or two. That won't happen this year (in my opinion), so we will continue to see cutoff numbers in August and possibly September.


http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
 
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