• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

Immigrant NumberVisa Issuances in the Diversity Immigrant

That is because of the lawsuit against DOS for erroneous initial results of DV-2012.
First, a number of winners did not know there was a substitute lottery. So, they did not proceed with the visas.
Secondly, because of the court proceedings DOS did not want to release second batch of hidden winners, what usually happens in case the amount of visa applications is low.
 
Are you asking if there is going to be another lawsuit this year? Up to this moment, there was no reason for it published.
Or do you want to know if there is going to be a different problem this year leading to the same result? Up to this moment, there was no reason for it published.
 
Aren't they supposed to select the "second batch" around October? It already passed. So they must be sure that they will give 50K visa numbers this year.
 
raevsky said:
Are you asking if there is going to be another lawsuit this year? Up to this moment, there was no reason for it published.
Or do you want to know if there is going to be a different problem this year leading to the same result? Up to this moment, there was no reason for it published.
Click to expand...

no am asking for ur second point, thanks for answering, but i just find it weired that the visa for my country "morocco" decreased so much in 2012 comparing to the previous years, how can u explain that ?
 
Princedriss said:
no am asking for ur second point, thanks for answering, but i just find it weired that the visa for my country "morocco" decreased so much in 2012 comparing to the previous years, how can u explain that ?
Click to expand...

Morocco selected issued %
2010 3124 1782 57%
2011 2003 987 49%
2012 1890 376 20%
2013 2068

The same numbers were %46, %47, %27 for Africa, %50 %51 %34 for all regions, same trend. 2012 was messy.
 
aos13 said:
Morocco selected issued %
2010 3124 1782 57%
2011 2003 987 49%
2012 1890 376 20%
2013 2068

The same numbers were %46, %47, %27 for Africa, %50 %51 %34 for all regions, same trend. 2012 was messy.
Click to expand...

so why it has dropped so much in 2012 ? it has a relation with what raevsky said about the false draw ?
 
Princedriss said:
so why it has dropped so much in 2012 ? it has a relation with what raevsky said about the false draw ?
Click to expand...

I don't know for a fact but what he said makes sense. Some people may have not been aware of the second draw so they didn't apply for a visa even though they have been selected. Also, due to the lawsuit, DoS may not have done the extra selection in case they are not filling the 50K quota. Or for some odd reason a lot more people were disqualified in 2012 but that is not very likely. At any rate it shouldn't matter for 2013.
 
Princedriss said:
so why it has dropped so much in 2012 ? it has a relation with what raevsky said about the false draw ?
Click to expand...

People checked on May 1st, saw that they were not selected but probably missed the email from KCC that instructed participants to recheck on the 15th. They got selected but did not know about it

The drop:

[table="width: 500, class: grid, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Region[/td]
[td]2011[/td]
[td]2012[/td]
[td]%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Africa[/td]
[td]24,015[/td]
[td]13,582[/td]
[td]-43%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Asia[/td]
[td]9,167[/td]
[td]6,481[/td]
[td]-29%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Europe[/td]
[td]16,378[/td]
[td]13,093[/td]
[td]-20%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]N.A[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]3[/td]
[td]+50%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Oceania[/td]
[td]578[/td]
[td]562[/td]
[td]-3%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]S.A[/td]
[td]978[/td]
[td]742[/td]
[td]-24%[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
 
aos13 said:
Morocco selected issued %
2010 3124 1782 57%
2011 2003 987 49%
2012 1890 376 20%
2013 2068

The same numbers were %46, %47, %27 for Africa, %50 %51 %34 for all regions, same trend. 2012 was messy.
Click to expand...
It is even more than that.
1,890 is the number of entries that were selected, without family members. With family members that would be around 2,290. 376 is the number of visas issued, with dependents. That is all because of two reasons mentioned
 
raevsky said:
It is even more than that.
1,890 is the number of entries that were selected, without family members.
Click to expand...
I know but that does not matter. Point is they have selected this many people for further processing. Looking at the totals, they select around 100K people every year, so the fundamentals did not magically change in 2012. That was my point.
 
They did. In case numbers are in low demand, they usually release second batch of winners. Like in 2003 and 2007. In 2003 for Europe the second batch was almost as big as the first one.
This time they did not release second batch because they claimed big number of applications in the court as one of the arguments in court. So, they could not show the number of applications was in fact low, that would mean they lied to the court.
 
raevsky said:
They did. In case numbers are in low demand, they usually release second batch of winners. Like in 2003 and 2007. In 2003 for Europe the second batch was almost as big as the first one.
This time they did not release second batch because they claimed big number of applications in the court as one of the arguments in court. So, they could not show the number of applications was in fact low, that would mean they lied to the court.
Click to expand...

I don't follow your logic but here are the number of selectees: 2010:102K, 2011:100K, 2012:100K, 2013:105K. I don't understand why the number of applications(?) has anything to do with the case, or how they can conceal any such information or, needless to say, if they would even want to conceal information.
 
From those 100K selected entries (with dependents much more than that), only a smaill portion is usually notified about the win. In case additional applications are needed to fill the quotas, DOS releases more numbers (of those 100K). So, usually they release additional numbers, but they did not do it in DV-2012.
 
raevsky said:
From those 100K selected entries (with dependents much more than that), only a smaill portion is usually notified about the win. In case additional applications are needed to fill the quotas, DOS releases more numbers (of those 100K). So, usually they release additional numbers, but they did not do it in DV-2012.
Click to expand...

"Usually" ? Did they do so in 2011 or 2010 or 2009 ? If what you suggest is correct, they should have announced a second batch pretty much every year ? And how exactly do they choose that small portion ? Another draw ?

If you could point to a law or regulation that explains this process beyond any interpretation or guesswork, that would be appreciated. It is still not clear to me how the case numbers are assigned for example.
 
"Usually" ? Did they do so in 2011 or 2010 or 2009 ?
Click to expand...
Every year. They do not want to notify people who have small chances to get an interview, because quota is filled out quickly. So, they usually notify a small portion of those 100K. And in case something goes wrong, like in 2003 and 2007, they notify more of those 100K.

If what you suggest is correct, they should have announced a second batch pretty much every year ?
Click to expand...
No, only if something goes wrong. Like in 2003 or 2007. Or 2012, but they could not do that in 2012.

And how exactly do they choose that small portion ? Another draw ?
Click to expand...
No, until certain rank number. Numbers go in sequential order.

If you could point to a law or regulation that explains this process beyond any interpretation or guesswork, that would be appreciated.
Click to expand...
It is not published anywhere. You can think of it as of my guesswork. But I am goot at that.
It is still not clear to me how the case numbers are assigned for example.
Click to expand...
There are explanations about that.

Official:
16. HOW WILL SUCCESSFUL ENTRANTS BE SELECTED?
All entries received from each region are individually numbered, and at the end of the registration period, a
computer will randomly select entries from among all the entries received for each geographic region. Within
each region, the first entry randomly selected will be the first case registered; the second entry selected will
be the second case registered etc. All entries received during the registration period will have an equal
chance of being selected within each region. When an entry has been selected, the entrant will be notified of
his/her selection through the Entrant Status Check available starting May 1, 2013, on the E-DV website
www.dvlottery.state.gov. The Department of State’s Kentucky Consular Center (KCC) will then process the
case until those selected to be visa applicants are instructed to appear for visa interviews at a U.S. Embassy
or Consulate or until those qualifying to change status in the United States apply at a domestic USCIS office.
Click to expand...

By a lawyer, former AILA Prezident. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...=9rU7Pc9P-ikbuBjPD42bWg&bvm=bv.42553238,d.bmk

Within each region, the 1st randomly selected entry will be the 1st registered for that region, the 2nd selected entry will be the 2nd registered, so that the case numbers will look like AF00000001, AF00000002, etc.
Click to expand...

In addition to that, I can tell you (my guesswork) that some numbers are removed later, because of check for duplicates.
 
If what you suggest is correct, they should have announced a second batch pretty much every year ?
Click to expand...
They probably do that every year in tiny amounts as well, as in DV-2013, but it is not easy to detect that for us, regular people. But sometimes those batches are huge (2003 and 2007).
 
If I recall, the reason a second batch has not been 'announced' previously is because previously, regular mail was used for notification, so they just sent out more letters. Because the lottery is now done via self checking online, it MUST be announced. There may have been extra batches done and you would be none the wiser unless you got a letter.

Q
 
raevsky said:
They probably do that every year in tiny amounts as well, as in DV-2013, but it is not easy to detect that for us, regular people. But sometimes those batches are huge (2003 and 2007).
Click to expand...

As in 2013? Are you telling they already did it this year? By mail or internet? Sorry but it does not add up. Also if they select only 100k and then remove duplicates how come there is AF106xxx and AS25xxx all at the same time? I think they disqualify duplicates right away, then randomize the rank order, then start selecting randomly and assign case numbers and then doing some more filtering and keep going until they hit their target.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top