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Visa issue vs Case Number

Good now that we have established who's bigger, revenons à nos moutons ... :)

First, the assumption is that CN represents the sequential Visa number for the region. This is true for Africa in DV12,13, Asia in DV13. Not true for Asia Dv12 and Europe 12,13 (for some reason)

For AF, AS: Max CN is [selectees] x [Spouse & Children factor]
For EU: max CN much bigger than [selectees] x [Spouse & Children factor]

Max CN out there (before the 22nd)
AF: ~80,000, Factor: ~1.55 => Notified ~52K (100%)
AS: ~10,000, Factor: ~1.77 => Notified ~6K (~40%)
EU: ~27,000, Factor: ~1.70 => Notified much less than 16K (much less than 50%)

Max CN suppose to be
AF: 52k * 1.55 = ~80k
AS: 16k * 1.77 = ~29K
EU: 32k * 1.70 = much more than 55K

Ratio of visas according to nmber of selectees:
AF: 52K/105K: 49.5%
AS: 16K/105K: 15.0%
EU: 32K/105K: 30.5%

Cutoff out as % of potential max CN
AF: 15.5K / 80K = 19%
AS: 2.7K / 29K = 9%
EU: 9.25K / 55K = much less than 17%

So the question remains:
WHY so low cutoff for AS (and probably also EU) ?? could it be a computer glitch ???? we know we had a share of those in the recent past....

:confused:
 
enchevetrement said:
Good now that we have established who's bigger, revenons à nos moutons ... :)

First, the assumption is that CN represents the sequential Visa number for the region. This is true for Africa in DV12,13, Asia in DV13. Not true for Asia Dv12 and Europe 12,13 (for some reason)

For AF, AS: Max CN is [selectees] x [Spouse & Children factor]
For EU: max CN much bigger than [selectees] x [Spouse & Children factor]

Max CN out there (before the 22nd)
AF: ~80,000, Factor: ~1.55 => Notified ~52K (100%)
AS: ~10,000, Factor: ~1.77 => Notified ~6K (~40%)
EU: ~27,000, Factor: ~1.70 => Notified much less than 16K (much less than 50%)

Max CN suppose to be
AF: 52k * 1.55 = ~80k
AS: 16k * 1.77 = ~29K
EU: 32k * 1.70 = much more than 55K

Ratio of visas according to nmber of selectees:
AF: 52K/105K: 49.5%
AS: 16K/105K: 15.0%
EU: 32K/105K: 30.5%

Cutoff out as % of potential max CN
AF: 15.5K / 80K = 19%
AS: 2.7K / 29K = 9%
EU: 9.25K / 55K = much less than 17%

So the question remains:
WHY so low cutoff for AS (and probably also EU) ?? could it be a computer glitch ???? we know we had a share of those in the recent past....

:confused:
Click to expand...

Very detail, thank you. Can you predict future visa bulletin cutoff AF, AS, EU? Thank you!
 
immgrat said:
Very detail, thank you. Can you predict future visa bulletin cutoff AF, AS, EU? Thank you!
Click to expand...

Just a second let me get my crystal ball.....

I can predict that in less than a year none of this will matter any more :)

Back to the serious track... deep down I fear that it might be a computer error somewhere - the programmer took the max revealed CN for all regions, e.g. for Asia, ~10K instead of 28K, and the software deduces the cutoffs based on that, causing the proportion between regions to not be kept.

My hope lays with the Iranians (though less with their government :)), as published in the US embassy in Ankara.
On October they handled zero CNs from Asia
On November they handle up to CN ~1K (104 interviews, most probably from Iran).
Maybe the low cutoff is because of this. They lost a month and want to let Ankara catch up.

A straw to clutch at...
 
enchevetrement said:
Good now that we have established who's bigger, revenons à nos moutons ... :)

First, the assumption is that CN represents the sequential Visa number for the region. This is true for Africa in DV12,13, Asia in DV13. Not true for Asia Dv12 and Europe 12,13 (for some reason)

For AF, AS: Max CN is [selectees] x [Spouse & Children factor]
For EU: max CN much bigger than [selectees] x [Spouse & Children factor]

Max CN out there (before the 22nd)
AF: ~80,000, Factor: ~1.55 => Notified ~52K (100%)
AS: ~10,000, Factor: ~1.77 => Notified ~6K (~40%)
EU: ~27,000, Factor: ~1.70 => Notified much less than 16K (much less than 50%)

Max CN suppose to be
AF: 52k * 1.55 = ~80k
AS: 16k * 1.77 = ~29K
EU: 32k * 1.70 = much more than 55K

Ratio of visas according to nmber of selectees:
AF: 52K/105K: 49.5%
AS: 16K/105K: 15.0%
EU: 32K/105K: 30.5%

Cutoff out as % of potential max CN
AF: 15.5K / 80K = 19%
AS: 2.7K / 29K = 9%
EU: 9.25K / 55K = much less than 17%

So the question remains:
WHY so low cutoff for AS (and probably also EU) ?? could it be a computer glitch ???? we know we had a share of those in the recent past....

:confused:
Click to expand...

My EU CN is 17k and I have been notified in May, also I know people with 22k+ CN from EU they also have been notified in may.
 
Some numbers I collected for DV13 EU:

10XX
3***
3***
9***
9xxx
10xxx
15,700
17k
18***
23XXX
23k
2****
25***


If we use 5 for the missing most significant digit and zero for the rest (e.g. 18xxx becomes 18500) we get:
Average x 2 = 28,731
Median x 2 = 31,400
Min+Max = 26,550

So max CN for EU (before October 22) is ~26.5-31.5 (I lean towards 27k).


For DV12, for which we know that all selectees were informed (unlike DV13):

26XX
5***
6***
11xxx
11,885
14***
18XXX
21xxx
21XXX
22XXX
24XXX
24***
25***
26XXX
26xxx
301xx
31XXX
45,188

max CN was probably between 45.5K - 48K

This year there are 6.5% more selected from EU so - max CN for EU can get to 51K and up.

Bottom line: ~50% or less of EU selectees were informed on May 1st.

By the way your number is listed up there :) and is quite low. Interview no later than early spring :)

Another thing, I saw in a post a month ago that 45,188 had an interview in September 12, in Ankara

good luck!
 
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