July 2017 Visa Bulletin

[SusieQQQ]

Hi all,
Simon (and all of the sages) - I was curious, where do you get the allocation percentages from? You say that EU and Asia has seen a small decrease this year, and that Africa a slight increase. However, Eu seems to have quite a surge in the selectee count compared to last year, (and Africa a moderate one), while Asia's count has practically remained the same as last year. If I understand the numbers correctly, that might imply that Asian high case numbers (like myself... 113xx) are relatively "safer" than European high case numbers, since Asia is only in a slightly worse position then the one it was in 2016/2017, years in which it became current, compared to EU, which has much more selctees this year but less visas to give? Or am I reading the numbers wrong?
I also wonder whether the administration predicts a higher refusal/AP rate this year, given the employment of the "stricter scrutiny" policy, particularly in Asia and Africa, which could account for the higher number of selectees (but would make the huge increase in the EU count even stranger, no?).

Not speculating on the numbers but be aware that "Europe" is a much wider region than you may be thinking of in your mind.

Personally I doubt the "stricter vetting" will have much impact at all. Immigrant visa checks are pretty strict anyway. Nice PR for an administration trying to show it's "keeping promises" though.

 

[saabe]

Actually Ghana is not the only country to have refusal rates like that. Nigeria and Bangladesh when they were in it, as well as certain smaller countries have very high refusal rates. High rates of fraud are linked to high refusal rates. This is exacerbated in countries like Ghana by the "agents" who perpetrate fraud themselves, enter people without their knowledge by using Facebook photos etc (this we have seen reported here and this is one facet I would accept as a reason for the unusually high entries as well as refusals should the poor person be convinced to continue with the application, as there is always incorrect info on the eDVs in these), people who think they can increase chances by entering more than once, again what I'd accept as a valid reason for the high entries, and by agents who simply advise people wrongly for example telling them they have a higher chance leaving off their spouse from their entries

The Nigerian theory doesn't make sense to me because any such entry falls at the first hurdle of having your birth certificate match your entry. What would be the point?

And of course these are not the only African countries to have high entries. Egypt, Ethiopia, DRC etc all routinely have selectee numbers that imply they were capped. Similar for a number of east European countries. One thing a lot of these countries do have in common is poor economies, sometimes also with repressive governments, and quite clear push factors as to why people would love a chance at moving to a rich first world country.

.

The difference Egypt, Ethiopia and Nepal don't have high refusal rates.
Otherwise,...you think mafias who can forge passports and visas, would have trouble forging birth certificates of countries where civil records are still kept in dusty drawers? If Accra Consulate refuses or put under AP 80% of DV visa applications, the only explaination is the high prevalence of fraud.

Anyway, what I called "the Nigerian theory" are just speculations (no evidence, just suspicions),...maybe the fraudsters are real Ghanians.

 

[SusieQQQ]

The difference Egypt, Ethiopia and Nepal don't have high refusal rates.
Otherwise,...you think mafias who can forge passports and visas, would have trouble forging birth certificates of countries where civil records are still kept in dusty drawers? If Accra Consulate refuses or put under AP 80% of DV visa applications, the only explaination is the high prevalence of fraud.

Anyway, what I called "the Nigerian theory" are just speculations (no evidence, just suspicions),...maybe the fraudsters are real Ghanians.

Of course the high refusal rate for Accra is due to fraud. We know that. I said that. No surprises.

But... Yeah sure all the Accra refusals are due to Nigerian fraudsters. No fraud in Ghana without them
Because we don't already have enough hate-mongering conspiracy theories out there. Sure, throw another one in the mix, with your 'just speculation', why don't you?

 

[saabe]

Of course the high refusal rate for Accra is due to fraud. We know that. I said that. No surprises.

But... Yeah sure all the Accra refusals are due to Nigerian fraudsters. No fraud in Ghana without them
Because we don't already have enough hate-mongering conspiracy theories out there. Sure, throw another one in the mix, with your 'just speculation', why don't you?

You're too harsh to me ,...you too threw the "speculation" that the high refusal rate in Athens may have something to do with Albanians. We're even,

 

[DanE1978]

Not speculating on the numbers but be aware that "Europe" is a much wider region than you may be thinking of in your mind.

Personally I doubt the "stricter vetting" will have much impact at all. Immigrant visa checks are pretty strict anyway. Nice PR for an administration trying to show it's "keeping promises" though.

Thank Susie -- But I'm not sure I got the size of Europe comment. Obviously EU runs for DV purposes from Portugal to Uzbekistan, but I was referring to the huge increase in the number of EU selectees in spite of the decrease in the visa allocation, while AS more or less remained the same (or so I understood from britsimon's analysis). If I understand correctly there wasn't any change in the EU or AS allotment, only the inclusion of Caracas, which seems to imply that the odds might be a little better in AS vis-a-vis EU this year.

I actually think the DV might be hit hard by the "stricter" scrutiny. While there seems to be a consensus that there would be little actual gain from stricter procedures, many warn that it will make the process lengthier, something that genuinely worries many organizations that work with foreign employees and students (notice for instance the inexplicable suspension of premium H-1B visa processing,) and obviously time is of the essence for the DV. Although I completely disagree with the current administration's immigration policies, one could imagine that as they battle their travel ban in the courts, arguing that all travel from the places on their list needs to be flatly banned, they would do everything in their power to avoid randomly giving out GCs to people coming from these places, with or without good reason.

 

[SusieQQQ]

You're too harsh to me ,...you too threw the "speculation" that the high refusal rate in Athens may have something to do with Albanians. We're even,

I did? I don't remember that. Anyway, speculating a high refusal rate is due to fraud is one thing, and quite common in certain areas; it's not quite the same as accusung an entire nation of manufacturing fake birth certificates etc to apply as another nationality, as your rather outlandish theory did.

 

[SusieQQQ]

one could imagine that as they battle their travel ban in the courts, arguing that all travel from the places on their list needs to be flatly banned, they would do everything in their power to avoid randomly giving out GCs to people coming from these places, with or without good reason.

So you think they'd hand down unlawful instructions to the embassies doing the interviews? Visa issuance follows a clearly defined bureaucratic process, it is not arbitrary people holding back issuing visas for no good reason. I do agree it might delay certain areas.

As for H1, I actually agree with Trump that the current system is being abused and needs to be addressed.

 

[DanE1978]

So you think they'd hand down unlawful instructions to the embassies doing the interviews? Visa issuance follows a clearly defined bureaucratic process, it is not arbitrary people holding back issuing visas for no good reason. I do agree it might delay certain areas.

As for H1, I actually agree with Trump that the current system is being abused and needs to be addressed.

Don't let me be misunderstood - I did not mean that the people making the decisions would do so based on "bad reasons", only that the additional processes that the state department has instructed the embassies to perform will have, as you noted, little actual effects, but will only delay the process with no good reason other than PR and perhaps the desire to block travel from those places listed in the travel ban. Processing can be more or less lax, and obviously it is generally within the discretion of the administration to make it as strict as they desire. One could imagine that given the instruction to increase scrutiny officers will be less lenient towards such minor things as using an outdated photo, especially given the explicit instructions. Newsweek reported a couple of weeks ago that Muslim majority countries have seen a 20% and more drop in visas in the last months.

Anyway, I think it might be interesting to think of how the DV process was affected by the change of the administration - the previous administration being in charge at the time of the registration to the lottery and leading up to it, and the current administration handling the results...

 

[SusieQQQ]

I think you underestimate the effect of bureaucratic inertia...
Personally I think KCC's feast and famine approach to the numbers has way more effect than the various administrations under which DV has operated over its twenty-something years.

 

[saabe]

I did? I don't remember that. Anyway, speculating a high refusal rate is due to fraud is one thing, and quite common in certain areas; it's not quite the same as accusung an entire nation of manufacturing fake birth certificates etc to apply as another nationality, as your rather outlandish theory did.

Sorry if I sounded like I was stigmatizing Nigeria and Nigerians,...never been my attention. My "suspicions" are not based on any kind of "prejudice" or "bigotry",...just on the fact, Nigeria is a world major center of all kind of frauds. That doesn't mean Nigerians are by definition "fraudsters", it just means criminal organizations specialized in fraud and forgery are very active in Nigeria,...and I wouldn't be surprised if they're still engaging in DV-related criminal activities, one way or another. Anyway all have been said, let's change the subject. Thanks for your help and input.

 

[DanE1978]

I think you underestimate the effect of bureaucratic inertia...
Personally I think KCC's feast and famine approach to the numbers has way more effect than the various administrations under which DV has operated over its twenty-something years.

No doubt, but I'm looking at it from the perspective of someone who's desperately trying to assess his odds for this year... (need to know whether and when to submit the ds-260, risking my ability to extend my nonimmigrant visa), so I'm trying to make sense of all the relevant info. Check out for instance this analysis from Politico:
"Data posted online this week by the State Department showed that non-immigrant visas granted to people from nearly 50 Muslim-majority countries were down almost 20 percent in April compared with the 2016 monthly average. When only Arab countries were considered, non-immigrant visas were down nearly 30 percent in April compared with the 2016 monthly average. Visas issued to the six countries targeted by Trump's March 6 travel ban — Iran, Syria, Sudan, Somalia, Libya and Yemen — declined even further, down 55 percent compared with the 2016 monthly average."
This is about the nonimmigrant visas, but it may very well effect the DV, given its unique process.

 

[Britsimon]

I think you underestimate the effect of bureaucratic inertia...
Personally I think KCC's feast and famine approach to the numbers has way more effect than the various administrations under which DV has operated over its twenty-something years.

Agree. The feast and famine approach is more likely to be the reason than anyone smarter. 2 year swings because it takes a while to turn a big tanker at sea...

 

[Britsimon]

No doubt, but I'm looking at it from the perspective of someone who's desperately trying to assess his odds for this year... (need to know whether and when to submit the ds-260, risking my ability to extend my nonimmigrant visa), so I'm trying to make sense of all the relevant info. Check out for instance this analysis from Politico:
"Data posted online this week by the State Department showed that non-immigrant visas granted to people from nearly 50 Muslim-majority countries were down almost 20 percent in April compared with the 2016 monthly average. When only Arab countries were considered, non-immigrant visas were down nearly 30 percent in April compared with the 2016 monthly average. Visas issued to the six countries targeted by Trump's March 6 travel ban — Iran, Syria, Sudan, Somalia, Libya and Yemen — declined even further, down 55 percent compared with the 2016 monthly average."
This is about the nonimmigrant visas, but it may very well effect the DV, given its unique process.

Desperately assessing your odds will drive you crazy. Sometimes there are factors that we don't no about.

In DV2015, the AF highest selectee was sitting on AF89XXX. I was able to get the data from CEAC on cases processed, cases made current and outcomes. I studied the numbers and was able to get to pretty accurate estimations of the increases predicted on the next visa bulletin. My earliest predictions for the year we around mid 60's. As time went on that number looked less and less likely - and I was more pessimistic than I even shared. With a month or two left I was certain that the cutoff could be above 55,000. I announced that - and then was amazed when the final number came in at 50,000. I was certain that was wrong - but I couldn't understand why calculations had failed. Once the official data was published I finally understood. KCC stopped the process too soon - and the quota was underfilled. They could easily have served that additional demand between 50,000 and 55,000 (probably less than 1000 people).

So - we can make all the predictions we like - but the only thing we can really do is "wait and see".

 

[SusieQQQ]

No doubt, but I'm looking at it from the perspective of someone who's desperately trying to assess his odds for this year... (need to know whether and when to submit the ds-260, risking my ability to extend my nonimmigrant visa), so I'm trying to make sense of all the relevant info. Check out for instance this analysis from Politico:
"Data posted online this week by the State Department showed that non-immigrant visas granted to people from nearly 50 Muslim-majority countries were down almost 20 percent in April compared with the 2016 monthly average. When only Arab countries were considered, non-immigrant visas were down nearly 30 percent in April compared with the 2016 monthly average. Visas issued to the six countries targeted by Trump's March 6 travel ban — Iran, Syria, Sudan, Somalia, Libya and Yemen — declined even further, down 55 percent compared with the 2016 monthly average."
This is about the nonimmigrant visas, but it may very well effect the DV, given its unique process.

Is that down because of processes or because fewer people applied? If the latter, it has zero relevance for DV.

 

[SusieQQQ]

My "suspicions" are not based on any kind of "prejudice" or "bigotry",...just on the fact, Nigeria is a world major center of all kind of frauds. .

And Ghanaians are pure as the driven snow I suppose.

Jeez dude, I'm from Africa too, by the way, you know. I'm not ignorant about what goes on where.

 

[DanE1978]

Desperately assessing your odds will drive you crazy. Sometimes there are factors that we don't no about.

In DV2015, the AF highest selectee was sitting on AF89XXX. I was able to get the data from CEAC on cases processed, cases made current and outcomes. I studied the numbers and was able to get to pretty accurate estimations of the increases predicted on the next visa bulletin. My earliest predictions for the year we around mid 60's. As time went on that number looked less and less likely - and I was more pessimistic than I even shared. With a month or two left I was certain that the cutoff could be above 55,000. I announced that - and then was amazed when the final number came in at 50,000. I was certain that was wrong - but I couldn't understand why calculations had failed. Once the official data was published I finally understood. KCC stopped the process too soon - and the quota was underfilled. They could easily have served that additional demand between 50,000 and 55,000 (probably less than 1000 people).

So - we can make all the predictions we like - but the only thing we can really do is "wait and see".

Frustrating! Although at one point I'm going to have to have to make a decision - submitting the DS-260 will probably get in the way of renewing my nonimmegrant visa (might have to do it at some point after June - for how long will they hold a grudge anyway?), and not submitting it on time might ruin my chanced to get a GC. Is there some point in the future when more info becomes relevant? As a AS113xx I have some time before things get real anyway.

BTW, would you say that Asia is generally in the same ballpark it was in the last two years, as it roughly has the same number of selectees, at least compared to the huge increase in all other regions? Are the quotas set per region, or is it possible for them to allocate less visas to Asia to compensate for the increase in other places?

Thanks!

 

[DanE1978]

Is that down because of processes or because fewer people applied? If the latter, it has zero relevance for DV.

Good question, but your guess is as good as mine, as they have only published the final numbers. It does seem safe to assume that it is in large part a result of a change in policy, given the fact that this is a group the administration has singled out, and that it has been very explicit about making it harder to get a visa from these areas.

Why do you say that fewer applications has zero relevance for DV?

Thanks!

 

[SusieQQQ]

Good question, but your guess is as good as mine, as they have only published the final numbers. It does seem safe to assume that it is in large part a result of a change in policy, given the fact that this is a group the administration has singled out, and that it has been very explicit about making it harder to get a visa from these areas.

Why do you say that fewer applications has zero relevance for DV?

Thanks!

Yes, I didn't expect you to know, but the point of asking the question was to illustrate the folly of jumping to conclusions about lower visas being simply because visa officers are being more strict. You just don't know. In fact seeing as we do know about other data - such as Canada seeing an upsurge in college applications by foreign students while those to the US are falling, and obviously student visa applications follow being accepted to a college, I would suspect it's more to do with lack of demand than anything the administration is enforcing. So I'm not sure at all that what you think is "safe to assume" is so, or at least not in the way you are implying.

And because the registration period for DV was over long before the executive order, so it would not have resulted in fewer DV applications.

 

[Britsimon]

Frustrating! Although at one point I'm going to have to have to make a decision - submitting the DS-260 will probably get in the way of renewing my nonimmegrant visa (might have to do it at some point after June - for how long will they hold a grudge anyway?), and not submitting it on time might ruin my chanced to get a GC. Is there some point in the future when more info becomes relevant? As a AS113xx I have some time before things get real anyway.

BTW, would you say that Asia is generally in the same ballpark it was in the last two years, as it roughly has the same number of selectees, at least compared to the huge increase in all other regions? Are the quotas set per region, or is it possible for them to allocate less visas to Asia to compensate for the increase in other places?

Thanks!

You can hold off submitting your DS260 until March/April next year with no concerns.

Asia has had a huge increase in selectees. You are not seeing that because you are not realizing the way the region is made up.

DV2017 had 13500 selectees announced. So this year has 2500 more. However, Nepal and Iran are almost unchanged. Nepal was 4000 out of the 13500 last year and 4097 this year. Iran was 4500 both years. So - excluding Nepal and Iran, the "rest of Asia" (ROA) had 5000 selectees last year, and 7400 this year - almost a 50% increase. Nepal and Iran are all low case numbers, so those extra ROA cases are all higher than Nepal and Iran.

 

[DanE1978]

You can hold off submitting your DS260 until March/April next year with no concerns.

Asia has had a huge increase in selectees. You are not seeing that because you are not realizing the way the region is made up.

DV2017 had 13500 selectees announced. So this year has 2500 more. However, Nepal and Iran are almost unchanged. Nepal was 4000 out of the 13500 last year and 4097 this year. Iran was 4500 both years. So - excluding Nepal and Iran, the "rest of Asia" (ROA) had 5000 selectees last year, and 7400 this year - almost a 50% increase. Nepal and Iran are all low case numbers, so those extra ROA cases are all higher than Nepal and Iran.

Now I understand. Oh well, I guess this is going to be a fun year.

Thanks Britsimon and SusieQQQ!