Britsimon
Super Moderator
I think that is exactly the right approach....
First CEAC file for DV2015
- Thread starter Britsimon
- Start date
I think that is exactly the right approach....
First of all, thank you very much for the awesome work you're doing. The numbers are indeed a fine piece of information. But they are not as easy to use as I hoped, if you want to predict a September cut-off. So I think you scared the OC folks a little too early.
The "At NVC" status consists of different types of cases: people not following up on their selection with an application, AoS cases and CP cases not being current. The first of these gives me quite a headache. So let's look at what we can say for now and speculate afterwards.
We have 4,968 visas issued in Q1 and the density of the scheduled cases is crazily low. Oh boy, there is really a tremendous backlog at KCC's. They should have issued 10k+ visas in Q1, since 9 FAM 42.51 PN1 states that
The monthly allotment of IV numbers is close to the maximum permissible.
So in Q1 we should have seen some 27 percent of the total number of visas made available in the DV category. In the near future we will see a steady increase of the CP density. Then it will stay stationary for low case numbers, meaning that the KCC have cleared the backlog. And by the way, I don't expect a slow down of the VB progression for the next two months.
For a prediction of the September cut-off for EU region we have basically two options.
Option 1:
Awaiting a stationary CP density in the low case numbers. This makes it possible to give a rather accurate prediction of the September cut-off. This will take some time.
Option 2:
Entering queasy ground I will try to compare DV-2015 and DV-2014 and speculate on the resulting CP density. We don't have to bother about Ukraine and Uzbekistan because these two countries are limited to the low case numbers. So I am interested in the Rest of Europe only.
In 2015 we have 4,613 RoE selectees less than in 2014. So I wondered what the max case number would be w/o this reduction. 2013 Entrants Statistics shows an demographic factor of 1.866 for RoE, so we have a difference of 4,613/1.866 = 2,472 cases. The average density of case numbers greater than 18,000 in CEAC 2015 is 0.366 and so we get a change of 2,472/0.366 = 6,754 in case numbers.
The largest case number I found is cardiogenics 2015EU455##. So w/o the reduction we would have 45,500+6,754 = 52,254 as a lower bound for the max case number in DV-2015. Looking for the max case number in DV-2014 I found 2014EU52### in this forum and this fits into the 2015 pattern. So I doubt there is much of a change in the density underpinning the DV program, and the max case number of 45,006 is far from shocking. To have some margin I will work with a moderately increased density later on. Now for the September cut-off.
Looking up the ratio of issued visas to the number of selectees for the past two years, one observes for Ukraine and Uzbekistan values of less than 0.30 and 0.70 respectively. The two special countries will take approximately 4,679*0.30+4,365*0.70 = 4,460, so no more than 4,500 visas.
Assuming 51,500 available visas and a quota of 37.5 percent for Europe there are 51,500*0.375-4,500 = 14,813 visas for RoE, and with an average CP/AoS split of 95.5/4.5 over the past five years 14,813*.955 = 14,146 of these are CP visas.
CEAC 2014 shows for case numbers greater than 20,000 a density of 15.5 percent for successful cases with an average number of 2.11 visas per case, so we have a density of issued visas of 0.155*2.11 = 0.327. I work with 0.34 for an increased density (by 4 percent). This results in a September cut-off of 14,146/0.34 = 41,600.
If we have a quota of 38 percent and 52,500 available visas, the same calculations give a September cut-off at 43,400. If there's no increase in density (or response ratio) it could even be a bit higher.
Final word of warning: This was guesswork not a prediction.
Happy New Year to you all
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The at NVC cases also represent people that have submitted their forms but are awaiting the completion of the processing. This has forced KCC to go a bit faster with the VB pace, but I believe they will back the pace off later as DS260s are completed. We already saw that in AS.
About the backlog and the monthly target. It is normal to have a slow start for the first 3 months or so on issuances, but I agree the numbers are way too low. The DS260 fiasco. Obviously as the early cases get their forms processed they will get interviews and the early ranges will yield more visas. For that reason I am not basing any thoughts on the currently processed cases.
The surprise about the EU 45 is that last year we saw cases up to at least 56XXX. The CEAC data includes aos cases this year.
I used the 2013 entrant numbers and came up with an expected number of AF cases of 39447 - - pretty close to the 39266 we are actually seeing so far for AF. I just now applied a 3% reduction in derivative rate accross AF region because the global derivative rate has decreased since 2013 by 3.2%. I think that is more likely to only apply to certain countries (agents), but I applied it anyway and that takes us to 40667 cases.
We also know the global derivative rate for DV2015 - 1.53 - so we should expect 81699 cases for the 125k selectees. We only actually see 76.6k (so far), so we may not have all the cases and may not have seen the max numbers - but we are pretty close. We could assume that the missing 5% is all off the top end (as I posted before), but for OC for instance that would only increase the numbers by 100 to 200 cases. It would obviously be more significant to EU and AF.
AF could have a theoretical max CN of about 95k if the 40667 number is correct and the extra 1400 cases are all about the 89799 we currently see.
I'm gonna PM you a link for the AF model I'm working on. I don't want to share it publicly yet to make sure it is right - but I'd appreciate your input on it.I can't start a PM conversation with you - so perhaps you can with me and I'll give you the link - or email me at britsimon3 at gmail.
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Ah, I see. So we have
(30,953/45,500)/(35,566/56,500) = 1.08
That is an increased density of 8 percent, not four as I assumed. So to be conservative I calculate with 9 percent. Then we have
0.155*1.09*2.11 = 0.357
for the density of issued visas and therefore a September cutoff at 14,146/0.357 = 39,680, based on 51,500 available visas and a quota of 37.5.
In a more optimistic mood (52,500/38.25/+8) I would put it at 41,120. Hm, so I consider 39,000 a lower bound for EU region and 42,000 an upper bound.
But I suggest to wait for a stationary CP density.
(30,953/45,500)/(35,566/56,500) = 1.08
That is an increased density of 8 percent, not four as I assumed. So to be conservative I calculate with 9 percent. Then we have
0.155*1.09*2.11 = 0.357
for the density of issued visas and therefore a September cutoff at 14,146/0.357 = 39,680, based on 51,500 available visas and a quota of 37.5.
In a more optimistic mood (52,500/38.25/+8) I would put it at 41,120. Hm, so I consider 39,000 a lower bound for EU region and 42,000 an upper bound.
But I suggest to wait for a stationary CP density.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I'm not really sure why we would have an increased density this year, but it is true in EU, OC and(I think) AF. I haven't looked at SA and AS yet. I can't explain why, but it is there.
Thanks for the numbers, will be sending you something once I am at a PC.
Sloner
Active Member
Interesting data 
The calculations of the final number in 2015.
To begin with we find the percentage of waste in Europe in 2013. 34500 win -22000 in CEAC = 12500 or 36,23%.
In 2014 it was processed and received their interview 11064 case.
In 2015, we have 21958 cases. Next, calculate the trash. 36,23*21958/100=7955. Total should go for an interview - 21958-7955=14003 cases. Already see too much. More precisely = 14003-11064 (DV2014) = 2939 cases.
Next We calculate the final number. We know that 0-15000 CN 11000 cases and 11000 cases15000-45000 CN . Take the table and divide our number by 2. 2939/2 = 1469.5. Next elementary removes excess cases.
From 0 to 15000 - 2098 numbers. From 15000 to 30000 - 4002 numbers.
Total CN - 45008 - 4002 - 2098 = 38908 If the quota will be increased in Europe, then I think the final number will reach 40,000 - 40500.
The calculations of the final number in 2015.To begin with we find the percentage of waste in Europe in 2013. 34500 win -22000 in CEAC = 12500 or 36,23%.
In 2014 it was processed and received their interview 11064 case.
In 2015, we have 21958 cases. Next, calculate the trash. 36,23*21958/100=7955. Total should go for an interview - 21958-7955=14003 cases. Already see too much.
More precisely = 14003-11064 (DV2014) = 2939 cases. Next We calculate the final number. We know that 0-15000 CN 11000 cases and 11000 cases15000-45000 CN . Take the table and divide our number by 2. 2939/2 = 1469.5. Next elementary removes excess cases.
From 0 to 15000 - 2098 numbers. From 15000 to 30000 - 4002 numbers.
Total CN - 45008 - 4002 - 2098 = 38908 If the quota will be increased in Europe, then I think the final number will reach 40,000 - 40500.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Interesting data
To begin with we find the percentage of waste in Europe in 2013. 34500 win -22000 in CEAC = 12500 or 36,23%.
In 2014 it was processed and received their interview 11064 case.
In 2015, we have 21958 cases. Next, calculate the trash. 36,23*21958/100=7955. Total should go for an interview - 21958-7955=14003 cases. Already see too much.
Next We calculate the final number. We know that 0-15000 CN 11000 cases and 11000 cases15000-45000 CN . Take the table and divide our number by 2. 2939/2 = 1469.5. Next elementary removes excess cases.
From 0 to 15000 - 2098 numbers. From 15000 to 30000 - 4002 numbers.
Total CN - 45008 - 4002 - 2098 = 38908 If the quota will be increased in Europe, then I think the final number will reach 40,000 - 40500.
Finally Sloner some math that you and I can agree on. If only you hadn't spent the whole of 2013 looking at 2012 numbers, you and I would have found agreements sooner. Mind you - I have to admit - I did enjoy our little "chats".
Your estimates here are in the right ballpark. I have done it several ways and come back to the same sort of points. However, time will tell whether the response or processing speed will be different because of the DS260 implementation.
Sloner
Active Member
Already seen. They process forms very slowly. Backlog from last year about a month. Maybe this is due to changes in KFC, I found the news that they are reducing and optimizing performance. Braking is not inevitably or summer, or in the coming months.
By the way, they did not say. Why choose a lot of winners. All questions bury their heads in the sand like an ostrich. I think they have something to hide. Or corruption, or simple carelessness and oversight work.
To know the truth need to send an ostrich in KFC in the pan.
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The increased density could have to do with a change in the entrants statistics, in favor of countries whose entrants are less prone to be disqualified at the draw.
But I can't explain why OC region would have an increased density.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yes - but it could also be less people being disqualified from the same country mix. This might be because they found their systems to be knocking out too many cases previously. Just speculation....
Britsimon
Super Moderator
This follows on from something I posted today at another site. It gives some ideas of the numbers....
AF has 58000 selectees. The CEAC data 39268 cases for Africa. That is almost every case - we already know about them - but of course we don't know how many family members each case has, but we know that there are 58000 Africans selected - so the entries we have probably covers nearly all of the 58000 (1.5 people, selectee + family, per case).
Egypyt, Ethiopia and Ghana are limited for sure, and perhaps one more country (either Liberia, Cameroon or DR Congo). The three limited countries will probably take around 3500, 2500 and 1500 visas in the order above. That is based on last years response and success rates. So - the three limited countries will take 7500 out of the total quota for Africa (which we believe will be about 22,000). So - that leaves 14500 visas. The three limited countries represent about 9000 of the 39268 cases in CEAC. The 9000 is the selectees at the derivative ratio for each country based on 2013 entry numbers.
So - Outside of the 3 limited countries that all get processed early, AF has about 30000 case numbers (about 45000 people) for 14500 visas. So far that is all very accurate - and all based on official numbers or hard data in this years CEAC data and previous results.
Now you can do your own guesswork. How many of the 45,000 won't respond at all? We don't know for sure, but last year about 25% didn't respond. Out of the ones that respond there are different success rates by embassy (detailed in my league table blog post), but roughly about 60% are successful.
If we assume the same response rate as last year that will mean 33750 people would respond and want an interview - but 60% of those will fail at interview. Only the first 14500 of those will get visas before they run out.
By the way. If you look at the CEAC file you can see how many cases are in front of you, so you can see (sort of) where you are in the line. Just remember that each time a selectee in front of you has a baby or gets married, that new derivative is in front of you. So - the 58000 is growing.
I posted this long explanation so that people can understand why I have said the numbers will not go as high as last year. The number range I have expressed so far (68000 to 74999) is not a pessimistic range. There are 33000 cases (so about 49000 people) below 68000. So - high case numbers will rely on many of those 49000 to not respond...
AF has 58000 selectees. The CEAC data 39268 cases for Africa. That is almost every case - we already know about them - but of course we don't know how many family members each case has, but we know that there are 58000 Africans selected - so the entries we have probably covers nearly all of the 58000 (1.5 people, selectee + family, per case).
Egypyt, Ethiopia and Ghana are limited for sure, and perhaps one more country (either Liberia, Cameroon or DR Congo). The three limited countries will probably take around 3500, 2500 and 1500 visas in the order above. That is based on last years response and success rates. So - the three limited countries will take 7500 out of the total quota for Africa (which we believe will be about 22,000). So - that leaves 14500 visas. The three limited countries represent about 9000 of the 39268 cases in CEAC. The 9000 is the selectees at the derivative ratio for each country based on 2013 entry numbers.
So - Outside of the 3 limited countries that all get processed early, AF has about 30000 case numbers (about 45000 people) for 14500 visas. So far that is all very accurate - and all based on official numbers or hard data in this years CEAC data and previous results.
Now you can do your own guesswork. How many of the 45,000 won't respond at all? We don't know for sure, but last year about 25% didn't respond. Out of the ones that respond there are different success rates by embassy (detailed in my league table blog post), but roughly about 60% are successful.
If we assume the same response rate as last year that will mean 33750 people would respond and want an interview - but 60% of those will fail at interview. Only the first 14500 of those will get visas before they run out.
By the way. If you look at the CEAC file you can see how many cases are in front of you, so you can see (sort of) where you are in the line. Just remember that each time a selectee in front of you has a baby or gets married, that new derivative is in front of you. So - the 58000 is growing.
I posted this long explanation so that people can understand why I have said the numbers will not go as high as last year. The number range I have expressed so far (68000 to 74999) is not a pessimistic range. There are 33000 cases (so about 49000 people) below 68000. So - high case numbers will rely on many of those 49000 to not respond...
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I ran the mid month extracts they are available on my blog...
Sammy967
Active Member
Sweet
Idea Mani
Active Member
Your the best
Thanks Britsimon !
I think max EU Case number is as shown in the ceac data.I have asked "cardiogenic" and he told me that his CN is 499** i don't know why he write it as 45500.