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First CEAC file for DV2015

Britsimon said:
Caps lock off please!

OK from previous posts I see you and your mother have CNs about EU410XX. If you had asked me yesterday I would have been very confident that you would have an interview because the increase in EU quota and so on. However, unless I am mistaken the data we now see in CEAC includes all cases up to the max case of 45006. That means there are only about 1500 cases higher than your case number. I am surprised the max case is that low - I had assumed it was around 50k, so finding the density is so much higher is a big shock (and suggests agents at work in the two big EU countries). So - I think the EU cutoff might be lower than I thought - possibly lower than the number reached last year. The DS260 wrinkle might have changed things - only time will tell but I expect the EU VB progress to slow down a bit to around 3000 per month from now on.
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May be some data is missing from the data because CN 45500 can be seen from the topic "
DV 2015 winners from Europe
"
 
Drench said:
May be some data is missing from the data because CN 45500 can be seen from the topic "
DV 2015 winners from Europe
"
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Yeah there may be some cases missing for various reasons - I'm not sure why. Globally we have neearly 77000 cases (global derivative ratio of 1.63)- so if we are missing some, it won't be many.
 
Britsimon said:
Caps lock off please!

OK from previous posts I see you and your mother have CNs about EU410XX. If you had asked me yesterday I would have been very confident that you would have an interview because the increase in EU quota and so on. However, unless I am mistaken the data we now see in CEAC includes all cases up to the max case of 45006. That means there are only about 1500 cases higher than your case number. I am surprised the max case is that low - I had assumed it was around 50k, so finding the density is so much higher is a big shock (and suggests agents at work in the two big EU countries). So - I think the EU cutoff might be lower than I thought - possibly lower than the number reached last year. The DS260 wrinkle might have changed things - only time will tell but I expect the EU VB progress to slow down a bit to around 3000 per month from now on.
Click to expand...
Sorry for Caps Lock ,and thank you for your detailed answer Britsimon.
 
Even though I haven't sent my DS-260, my case is listed on the spreadsheet. So, why do we only have total of 76K cases? I thought they selected 125K.
 
Knot said:
Even though I haven't sent my DS-260, my case is listed on the spreadsheet. So, why do we only have total of 76K cases? I thought they selected 125K.
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The derivatives are all attached to the main selectees case - so - 76+k cases (possibly a few more if they did not include all the cases yet) PLUS the derivatives will get us to 125K.
 
Britsimon said:
The derivatives are all attached to the main selectees case - so - 76+k cases (possibly a few more if they did not include all the cases yet) PLUS the derivatives will get us to 125K.
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If Knot's CN is there even though they haven't submitted their forms, I think the ones that show "At NVC" are not necessarily the ones that submitted their forms but rather those who were selected but haven't gotten an interview yet which makes it a good tool to determine the maximum CN, holes, etc.
 
Sammy967 said:
If Knot's CN is there even though they haven't submitted their forms, I think the ones that show "At NVC" are not necessarily the ones that submitted their forms but rather those who were selected but haven't gotten an interview yet which makes it a good tool to determine the maximum CN, holes, etc.
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Yep - his case is confirmation of that (that we have all cases) but also the fact that we have so many cases (76.6k) is absolute proof that we have all cases (submitted DS260s or not). HOWEVER, there are probably a few missing (perhaps 3k or 4k globally) that might explain why we do not appear to have the very highest cases. It might be that KCC already applied a "cutoff" in their own minds saying it is pointless to load AF cases higher than 89.8k, EU higher than ~45k, AS higher than ~19.2K. So - the actual max numbers may be a little higher than the ones we have - but clearly those numbers won't come in to play (and we can obviously watch that as time goes on).
 
Britsimon said:
Yep - his case is confirmation of that (that we have all cases) but also the fact that we have so many cases (76.6k) is absolute proof that we have all cases (submitted DS260s or not). HOWEVER, there are probably a few missing (perhaps 3k or 4k globally) that might explain why we do not appear to have the very highest cases. It might be that KCC already applied a "cutoff" in their own minds saying it is pointless to load AF cases higher than 89.8k, EU higher than ~45k, AS higher than ~19.2K. So - the actual max numbers may be a little higher than the ones we have - but clearly those numbers won't come in to play (and we can obviously watch that as time goes on).
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I couldn't agree more. It'd be very interesting if KCC proceeded as you speculate!
 
So basically there will be no holes from the ones that didnt follow up!
Gives us a better option for the data check.
Thanks simon
 
Britsimon said:
Yep - his case is confirmation of that (that we have all cases) but also the fact that we have so many cases (76.6k) is absolute proof that we have all cases (submitted DS260s or not). HOWEVER, there are probably a few missing (perhaps 3k or 4k globally) that might explain why we do not appear to have the very highest cases. It might be that KCC already applied a "cutoff" in their own minds saying it is pointless to load AF cases higher than 89.8k, EU higher than ~45k, AS higher than ~19.2K. So - the actual max numbers may be a little higher than the ones we have - but clearly those numbers won't come in to play (and we can obviously watch that as time goes on).
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Good point and thank you very much Britsimon
 
Thanks for your CEAC extraction.
Did you check the "AT NVC"/"Total Current availible Cases" status?
I know we can not compare Africa to Euro or Asia because of Egypt and Ethiopia cut-offs but when you compare Euro and Asia here is the result, there are very different from each other:
AS: Total Current and available cases: 3603 ------- NVC: 1720 ------- ratio:47%
EU: Total Current and available cases: 12985 -------NVC:9800 ------- ratio:75%
AF: Total Current and available cases: 17977* -------NVC:13871 ------- ratio:77%
I don't know if it's a cultural thing or not but in my opinion it affected the Bulletin.


maybe that's the reason why EU and AF have big numbers in Bulletin in comparison to 2014 and AS have slightly the same number.
If a big chunk of AT NVC cases are the ones who never sent their DS-260(which is very unlikely) we could see same jumps in EU and AF in cumming months otherwise I predict a slowdown in EU and AF and higher numbers in AS in near future.
 
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