• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

DV 2015 Winners Meet Here

happyhappy89 said:
I just unlocked using my case number and year of birth
Click to expand...
Aha. So you opened your form to review it. You didn't unlock it.
There is no problem at all in doing that. It doesn't affect your schedule. You can review your form as many times as you want. I opened my form many times to review the informations I entered.
 
Last edited:
Britsimon said:
There are two sorts of limits that you are mixing up.

The first limit is clearly explained in the holes theory post on my website. It is a limit placed on the country during the draw process. Too many entries come from certain countries and so during the draw when they reach enough winners from that country they simply knock out the remaining winners from that country. The impact of that is to create the holes and reduction in density that the graph above clearly shows. The higher the number of entries, the sooner the country meets the draw limit. There are 3 countries limited for certain (Ghana, Egypt and Ethiopia), but there is at least one more country limited (either DRC, Liberia or Cameroon). Of this second group you could argue that all three are in fact limited (based on the fact that none of them exceed the 5000 selectees limit) but it appears a to be a fairly significant drop in density at about 52 - 54k - which might be a 4th country or it could even be two of the countries maxing out at about the same time.

The other sort of limit is applied during the visa issuing process. The law says no one country can exceed more than 7% of the available visas (50k) in any year. So there is a limit in place of 3500 visas to any one country. By using NACARA visas that limit can be 7% of 55000 (3850). So we could see a country max out that 7% limit. However, to do that a country needs a lot of selectees and a high success rate. Only two countries in the world have a chance of doing that - Nepal and Egypt. To avoid calling people to interview when a country is close to the 7% limit, KCC can leave a VB limit in place at the end of the year (as happened in DV2014 with Egypt at 32250 and Nepal at 9500).

The other monthly limits in the VB that we see at the moment for Egypt and Ethiopia is to control the pace of their workload - so that they don't have to process all the work in the first 3 or 4 months of the year. Ghana embassy doesn't seem to need that control of pace, possibly because Ghanaian selectees have a high refusal rate (a refusal is less work that a visa issued), or possibly because the agents have created winners to blackmail and many of those cases don't show up for the interviews - thus reducing the workload.
Click to expand...



Clear,thanks
 
God-Is-Love said:
Aha. So you opened your form to review it. You didn't unlock it.
There is no problem at all in doing that. It doesn't affect your schedule. You can review your form as many times as you want. I opened my form many times to review the informations I entered.
Click to expand...
Thats right,I opened it just to review.Then thought maybe it will cause some problems.Besides, i got afraid because there was mentioned that if i dont change anything within 20 minutes, after 20 minutes some information will be lost.But you helped me)Thank you so much
 
Britsimon said:
I think it is more risky than I thought before. It's difficult to be precise - but yeah it will be a nervous wait.

By the way, The reason I say August/September is that I expect KCC to do something similar as last year where the main movement is over by August just leaving September for a cleanup....
Click to expand...
Thanks for the reply, Britsimon.
Could you please share the source link where you get the CEAC data? Can I check it for updates time after time?
 
Can any of the senior members spread light on whether AoS is applicable to only those who currently live in the US?

if "no", can AoS increase chances for high case number winners or the opposite?
 
Candeu said:
Can any of the senior members spread light on whether AoS is applicable to only those who currently live in the US?

if "no", can AoS increase chances for high case number winners or the opposite?
Click to expand...

Only those currently living in the US are eligible to process AOS, and it does not necessarily "increase" anyone's chance of being approved.
 
Hi, my case number is below 15,700 from Egypt, waiting for the 2nl for March interview, I had entered my CN at the link you have said and it gave me that my application at NVC although I had not any change since I had submitted my DS 260 and I never present any petition, can you please advise? And can I contact the KCC or better to wait for this month.thanks
 
ValiBo said:
You can check it in this link https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx?eQs=o/iS8zDpeAKjMWCuebHqOw==
by putting your case number without zero-s included
Click to expand...
Hi, my case number is below 15,700 from Egypt, waiting for the 2nl for March interview, I had entered my CN at the link you have said and it gave me that my application at NVC although I had not any change since I had submitted my DS 260 and I never present any petition, can you please advise? And can I contact the KCC or better to wait for this month.thanks
 
"I would appreciate some feedback from people to confirm these guesses. For example, if someone has not yet submitted their DS260 for the first time, do they see their number in the CEAC system yet"
Yes Britsimon, i can confirm that your guess is correct with respect DS 260 form not been submitted yet on the CEAC system but the system is saying as NVC One of my friends have not submitted her DS 260 form yet due to issues with her pass port, we enter her CN and the system is telling us at NVC. i do have an observation comment pending moderation on your block pls check it out.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top