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DV 2015 Oceania winners

I agree it'll probably be around the 300 mark, which wouldn't be a bad start to DV2015. I think however that the following numbers for the remainder of 2014 will be the really telling/important numbers. I'm hoping my number comes up in November, but it'll probably be December. So I'm holding out for 350 as opening number (miracles do happen)!
 
We are planning a month long trip from home to WA across the Nullarbor and back via Alice just before departing. That and kids Aust/USA schooling a Feb interview would be perfect. Also we are planning on living in Colorado and arriving in Winter would be too much!
 
With a 2015 case number that is just over 1450, I am a little worried about my chances now - especially as I feel more people in Oceania will apply now that it is online based. I was hoping to have a year not worrying, but now I will be on edge.
 
japanaus said:
With a 2015 case number that is just over 1450, I am a little worried about my chances now - especially as I feel more people in Oceania will apply now that it is online based. I was hoping to have a year not worrying, but now I will be on edge.
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Mine is just under 1450 but I'll be joining you in worrying. Hopefully they update OC with a 150 increase and give me some stress buffer.
 
At least you guys will be more prepared for the perils of being an OC selectee. For us who were selected in the 2014 round, where all previous DVs for this region had gone current, we all had waaaay too much faith in the system.
 
guestgulkan said:
Mine is just under 1450 but I'll be joining you in worrying. Hopefully they update OC with a 150 increase and give me some stress buffer.
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I am hoping for that increase too. I am just on the wrong side of that 1450 number that an extra 150 would mean I would keep the faith for a little longer. As it stands though, it will be a long year and I guess we both won't know ourselves until next year around this time.
 
Well I was all excited to be selected but am starting to think this might not even be a 50/50 chance, reading the above I think I have one of the highest numbers 2015OC21XX, all I guess I can hope for in 2015 in that Oceania goes CURRENT, am I right in thinking that DV2014 was the only year in previous 11 years not to go current? what are the chances of not going Current 2 years in a row?? I have read in a few places that they selected 140,000 for DV2014 however DV2015 was 125,000 and Nigeria which makes up a huge amount was excluded, with Oceania numbers also slightly down? I really do hope that Oceania goes current and get selected for a interview in August/September 2015.
 
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2015OC22xx is the highest I've seen. The highest I saw in 2014 was 32xx? With a number that high I'd probably just submit my DS-260 and chillax until June next year.
 
Codyf21 said:
Well I was all excited to be selected but am starting to think this might not even be a 50/50 chance, reading the above I think I have one of the highest numbers 2015OC21XX, all I guess I can hope for in 2015 in that Oceania goes CURRENT, am I right in thinking that DV2014 was the only year in previous 11 years not to go current? what are the chances of not going Current 2 years in a row?? I have read in a few places that they selected 140,000 for DV2014 however DV2015 was 125,000 and Nigeria which makes up a huge amount was excluded, with Oceania numbers also slightly down? I really do hope that Oceania goes current and get selected for a interview in August/September 2015.
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Well wait and see what happens in the next few weeks. If OC finishes on 1450 then it would be pretty much certain that your number won't get called. As it is, to be honest it is doubtful anyway. Here is why:-

In DV2014, OC had 4200 selectees and that gave a max case number of around 3000. We only got through around half of those - meaning about half of the 4200 selectees. So you can imagine that OC need about 2100 selectees to fill the quota (IF we stop at 1450)

In DV2015 there are a few less selectees for OC (3500 - a bit less than 20% reduction from DV2014). If you count on the 2100 being all that is needed - that means the top one third of cases will be disappointed in DV2015.

So - if your CN is in the top one third of CNs - then you are in the risky range. An increase in DV2014 would change the math somewhat, but, you can see now that you should have a backup plan.
 
guestgulkan said:
2015OC22xx is the highest I've seen. The highest I saw in 2014 was 32xx? With a number that high I'd probably just submit my DS-260 and chillax until June next year.
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Wow so went as high as 3200 and only calling upto 1450 for dv2014. Hopes are dv2015 goes current I feel a bit better that I am in dv2015
 
Britsimon said:
Well wait and see what happens in the next few weeks. If OC finishes on 1450 then it would be pretty much certain that your number won't get called. As it is, to be honest it is doubtful anyway. Here is why:-

In DV2014, OC had 4200 selectees and that gave a max case number of around 3000. We only got through around half of those - meaning about half of the 4200 selectees. So you can imagine that OC need about 2100 selectees to fill the quota (IF we stop at 1450)

In DV2015 there are a few less selectees for OC (3500 - a bit less than 20% reduction from DV2014). If you count on the 2100 being all that is needed - that means the top one third of cases will be disappointed in DV2015.

So - if your CN is in the top one third of CNs - then you are in the risky range. An increase in DV2014 would change the math somewhat, but, you can see now that you should have a backup plan.
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Have they ever extended the visa numbers or gone current after releasing the visa bulletin?? Previous 10 years I have never seen Oceania not going current.
 
Codyf21 said:
Have they ever extended the visa numbers or gone current after releasing the visa bulletin?? Previous 10 years I have never seen Oceania not going current.
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There have been some instances of adjustments to the VB, but the most likely tome for that is in the next few days. They didn't move OC, SA and EU - which is quite odd as they wlould only have had 8 months processing numbers to make that decision.

Regardless of what happened in the past 10 years, they doubled the selectees for DV2014 from previous years. Unless they increased the quota, that was a recipe for disaster. At 3500 (DV2015) the selectees are still more than 60% higher than 2013. I REALLY doubt DV2015 will see current - you should get used to that idea now...
 
Britsimon said:
Well wait and see what happens in the next few weeks. If OC finishes on 1450 then it would be pretty much certain that your number won't get called. As it is, to be honest it is doubtful anyway. Here is why:-

In DV2014, OC had 4200 selectees and that gave a max case number of around 3000. We only got through around half of those - meaning about half of the 4200 selectees. So you can imagine that OC need about 2100 selectees to fill the quota (IF we stop at 1450)

In DV2015 there are a few less selectees for OC (3500 - a bit less than 20% reduction from DV2014). If you count on the 2100 being all that is needed - that means the top one third of cases will be disappointed in DV2015.

So - if your CN is in the top one third of CNs - then you are in the risky range. An increase in DV2014 would change the math somewhat, but, you can see now that you should have a backup plan.
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This is an interesting point. So by this rationale, does that mean the number of visas allocated to OC remains static year to year? Also worth pondering -- we've about 83% of the selectees compared to last year. Should that mean our highest CN is likely to be around 0.83*3000 = 2490?

In that case, by my estimate, the cutoff for next year will be almost spot on 1500, assuming the highest 2014 CN lay between 3000 and 3300, and we don't move past 1450.

D'oh!

My one ray of hope is that I'm making dodgy assumptions. That ray is provided by DV2013: they only took about 2150 selectees, but I read of case numbers up above 1700... and the region went current. What's changed about the allocation of CNs in 2014 to keep the final CN at 1450 out of 4200 odd selectees?
 
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Colorado yeh that's the best place in the USA! Your picture looks like the Garden of the Gods. Or Red Rocks.
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It's Bryce Canyon, Utah one of the National Parks we visited. I liked Bryce and Zion better than Grand Canyon although it was a chilly -14 c when we were there.

Mine is just under 1450 but I'll be joining you in worrying. Hopefully they update OC with a 150 increase and give me some stress buffer.
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Here's hoping for a better DV this year with your number, it could be close and fingers crossed you will make it
 
connectedspace said:
This is an interesting point. So by this rationale, does that mean the number of visas allocated to OC remains static year to year? Also worth pondering -- we've about 83% of the selectees compared to last year. Should that mean our highest CN is likely to be around 0.83*3000 = 2490?

In that case, by my estimate, the cutoff for next year will be almost spot on 1500, assuming the highest 2014 CN lay between 3000 and 3300, and we don't move past 1450.

D'oh!

My one ray of hope is that I'm making dodgy assumptions. That ray is provided by DV2013: they only took about 2150 selectees, but I read of case numbers up above 1700... and the region went current. What's changed about the allocation of CNs in 2014 to keep the final CN at 1450 out of 4200 odd selectees?
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Here are the numbers for the Oceania region.. All data taken from http://travel.state.gov/

Thought it would be nice to put it all in one place.. :)

 
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