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DV 2015 Oceania winners

connectedspace said:
This is an interesting point. So by this rationale, does that mean the number of visas allocated to OC remains static year to year? Also worth pondering -- we've about 83% of the selectees compared to last year. Should that mean our highest CN is likely to be around 0.83*3000 = 2490?

In that case, by my estimate, the cutoff for next year will be almost spot on 1500, assuming the highest 2014 CN lay between 3000 and 3300, and we don't move past 1450.

D'oh!

My one ray of hope is that I'm making dodgy assumptions. That ray is provided by DV2013: they only took about 2150 selectees, but I read of case numbers up above 1700... and the region went current. What's changed about the allocation of CNs in 2014 to keep the final CN at 1450 out of 4200 odd selectees?
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DV2013 isn't the oddball/screwup, DV2014 is.

When we first heard that selectees had gone from the "normal" 100k (105 in DC2013) to 140K in DV2014 we were puzzled, but pretty worried. Some (one) reasoned that new software was going to increase the rejection rate or perhaps affect the response rate - that didn't happen. For OC though there was a massive increase in selectees (by 100% over 2013 instead of the global 30% increase. I reasoned that the increase MUST have meant OC was going to see a large increase in quota. It appears that was incorrect too. In fact, the OC numbers for this year look like finishing very slightly above last year. So - we have all been whining and confused about how KCC have screwed up, but really the only screwup was inviting more selectees to believe they were getting a GC. In terms of issuing visas and filling the pot over a 12 month period I think final results will probably show KCC did a good job.

So yeah for OC particularly (where no special countries hit limits) you can assume that final numbers in DV2014 will signal final numbers in DV2015 (roughly). So - if we end up at 1450 (I am still hoping for an update to that) you should expect around 1450/1600 range next year. To get to 1700 or above (comparing to 1450 final) would take one or more of the following:

1. More non responses (unlikely unless something puts people off moving to the USA like economy issues or civil war)
2. More rejections (unlikely iof the rules such as education standards are unchanged)
3. Bigger quota for OC. (I dare not predict this again).
 
So, for the benefit of 1400+ CN people like me, I've been sniffing around trying to get a lead on quotas, since the quota for our region will have a huge impact on how high the cutoff goes.

In this state department document http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/87838.pdf, I found this passage:

Using available estimates, the Attorney General must then determine the population of each of the six regions (excluding the population of any high admission foreign state) and use those totals to determine the apportionment of the 55,000 worldwide DV limitations. Quotas for the six regions will be established. Natives of these regions compete for that portion of the total established for that region. Any unused portion of a regional quota is distributed proportionally among the other regions. High admission states are excluded entirely from the apportionment​

That means the quotas are set by looking at the total population of the region, not by the proportion of selectees hailing from that region. More importantly, the populations of countries excised from the DV pool are also excised from the quota calculation. So chopping off a high population country like Russia or Bangladesh will significantly reduce that region's quota.

In our case, Nigeria has just been excised from Africa, which removes 177000000 from its population pool, or 16%. Africa's loss (for better or worse) is our gain: that 16% -- maybe around 3200 visas, give or take -- will be spread over the rest of the world. Perhaps OC stands to gain at least a few from that number, and we in DV2015 might be just a little more lucky than the poor folks in 2014. (Of course, we're a lot more lucky than the poor folks stuck in poverty in Nigeria.)

A jump from a quota of 650 to a quota of 800 would make a huge difference.

Now, I've been very wrong before, so shooting down this particular thought missile would be so much grist for the DV mill. I flatter myself and call it a 'falsifiable hypothesis'.
 
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connectedspace said:
So, for the benefit of 1400+ CN people like me, I've been sniffing around trying to get a lead on quotas, since the quota for our region will have a huge impact on how high the cutoff goes.

In this state department document http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/87838.pdf, I found this passage:

Using available estimates, the Attorney General must then determine the population of each of the six regions (excluding the population of any high admission foreign state) and use those totals to determine the apportionment of the 55,000 worldwide DV limitations. Quotas for the six regions will be established. Natives of these regions compete for that portion of the total established for that region. Any unused portion of a regional quota is distributed proportionally among the other regions. High admission states are excluded entirely from the apportionment​

That means the quotas are set by looking at the total population of the region, not by the proportion of selectees hailing from that region. More importantly, the populations of countries excised from the DV pool are also excised from the quota calculation. So chopping off a high population country like Russia or Bangladesh will significantly reduce that region's quota.

In our case, Nigeria has just been excised from Africa, which removes 177000000 from its population pool, or 16%. Africa's loss (for better or worse) is our gain: that 16% -- maybe around 3200 visas, give or take -- will be spread over the rest of the world. Perhaps OC stands to gain at least a few from that number, and we in DV2015 might be just a little more lucky than the poor folks in 2014. (Of course, we're a lot more lucky than the poor folks stuck in poverty in Nigeria.)

A jump from a quota of 650 to a quota of 800 would make a huge difference.

Now, I've been very wrong before, so shooting down this particular thought missile would be so much grist for the DV mill. I flatter myself and call it a 'falsifiable hypothesis'.
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I noted the same thing yesterday in another thread, here. The Nigerian quota will be distributed to other regions. I believe OC is entitled to 2 or 3% of those visas :) Anyone have the maths on that, is that an extra 50?
 
Great! Ok I can't wait. Let me try:

Nigeria received 3252 visas last year.
3252 * 0.02 = 65 extra visas for OC
OC density.. 35 visas per 100 case numbers.
65 / 0.35 =​

186 CN increase.​

1450 + 186 = 1636​

Extra CN buffer, a nice way to start the day. Time for my morning coffee!


Note:
OC quota of 2% might be somewhat pessimistic
Density of 35 might be slightly optimistic
 
Essey said:
DV2015OC4XX here. After being selected last year with a very high number (29XX), it was a relief to get such a low case number the following year! For all those with higher or more 'uncertain' case numbers, it always pays to re-enter.
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Let us know what happens with your DV2014 if anything, be interested to see if you get any communication as going by the Visa Bulletin they have closed off at 1450.
 
Codyf21 said:
Let us know what happens with your DV2014 if anything, be interested to see if you get any communication as going by the Visa Bulletin they have closed off at 1450.
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You don't get any communication unless your number becomes current. Basically DV2014 was a write-off for me and a lot of people on this forum. It's been covered extensively in this thread if you're interested in reading about the heartache: http://forums.immigration.com/threads/2014-dv-australian-winners.314566/ From October this year, it's a new and hopefully much luckier DV lottery for me!
 
Essey said:
You don't get any communication unless your number becomes current. Basically DV2014 was a write-off for me and a lot of people on this forum. It's been covered extensively in this thread if you're interested in reading about the heartache: http://forums.immigration.com/threads/2014-dv-australian-winners.314566/ From October this year, it's a new and hopefully much luckier DV lottery for me!
Click to expand...

At 400 you're a few steps from home base. Of fortune's cap you are, if not the very button, then the hatband at lowest.
 
guestgulkan said:
Great! Ok I can't wait. Let me try:

Nigeria received 3252 visas last year.
3252 * 0.02 = 65 extra visas for OC
OC density.. 35 visas per 100 case numbers.
65 / 0.35 =​

186 CN increase.​

1450 + 186 = 1636​

Extra CN buffer, a nice way to start the day. Time for my morning coffee!


Note:
OC quota of 2% might be somewhat pessimistic
Density of 35 might be slightly optimistic
Click to expand...

I'll take the low road and put us at 50 visas from the exclusion of Nigeria. I'd also say our density will, in the end, be more like 0.4. So that yields a cutoff of +125 CNs, bringing us to 1575. Better than 1450, but not by much, sadly.
 
Sor
Essey said:
You don't get any communication unless your number becomes current. Basically DV2014 was a write-off for me and a lot of people on this forum. It's been covered extensively in this thread if you're interested in reading about the heartache: http://forums.immigration.com/threads/2014-dv-australian-winners.314566/ From October this year, it's a new and hopefully much luckier DV lottery for me!
Click to expand...
Sorry to hear that DV2014 didn't turn out, I had that excitement with DV2015 but with 21xx things are not looking that flash based on Dv2014. I will be reapplying for Dv2016 as if this year is anything to go by I have no chance. Can only hope that with fewer people selected that things go back to normal. You got a amazing number this year anyway!
 
Hi everyone!

Congrats on being selected in the 2015 lottery! I was selected in the 2014 lottery and am leaving for the US in less than two weeks. I made a site about my experiences from application until now which has proved helpful to other winners. If you want to check it out - www.americanstateofmine.com
Feel free to reach out on the contact form too!

Good Luck!
 
Hi Everyone,

I just had a quick question for any New Zealanders - In terms of proving you have completed high school up to Year 12, does my NZQA record of learning fulfil this requirement. As far as I'm aware NZ high schools don't issue any Graduation Diplomas?

Thanks in advance!
 
NZLDNNY said:
Hi Everyone,

I just had a quick question for any New Zealanders - In terms of proving you have completed high school up to Year 12, does my NZQA record of learning fulfil this requirement. As far as I'm aware NZ high schools don't issue any Graduation Diplomas?

Thanks in advance!
Click to expand...
Hey there, I am a Kiwi as well. What I have got is a small certificate from my School that I kept saying that I have completed 7th form which is year 13. I have also got original copies of all High School certificates, so 5th form Certificate, 6th Form Certificate and 7th Form as well. This way I can prove that I not only completed 12 years but completed and passed Year 13. Just for something extra I contacted my school and asked them for a letter on their letterhead confirming I was a pupil and the years I attended. If you are going for your interview at the US Consulate in Auckland they will be familiar with the certificates. I think anything you can get to say you attened up to 6th form (year 12) should be enough. Although the way DV2014 went I am not sure with my high number for DV2015 of 21xx I will even need it lol. If that is the case then its Hellllooo Cannnada
 
NZLDNNY said:
Hi Everyone,

I just had a quick question for any New Zealanders - In terms of proving you have completed high school up to Year 12, does my NZQA record of learning fulfil this requirement. As far as I'm aware NZ high schools don't issue any Graduation Diplomas?

Thanks in advance!
Click to expand...
I have my actual 6th form cert ( yr 12) and that is adequate I hope. I wish I could remember where I saw it, but I did once come across a website that listed 6th form as 'equivalent' to 12 yrs of schooling. I will try to find the page again, but don't hold ya breath !! It might have been US embassy webpage in Auckland ??
 
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hopefulinnz said:
I have my actual 6th form cert ( yr 12) and that is adequate I hope. I wish I could remember where I saw it, but I did once come across a website that listed 6th form as 'equivalent' to 12 yrs of schooling. I will try to find the page again, but don't hold ya breath !! It might have been US embassy webpage in Auckland ??
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Yeah that does sound correct, I would be confident if you have something to show you complete 6th form then that is adequate to prove you meet the 12 year high school criteria which is a lot easier to meet than the work criteria. Looking at your OC19xx and my OC21xx we are going to have a tense year ahead of us to see if we ever get the call up.
 
Mirrormirror9 said:
Hi everyone!

Congrats on being selected in the 2015 lottery! I was selected in the 2014 lottery and am leaving for the US in less than two weeks. I made a site about my experiences from application until now which has proved helpful to other winners. If you want to check it out - www.americanstateofmine.com
Feel free to reach out on the contact form too!

Good Luck!
Click to expand...
I so hope that this time next year I will be preparing just as you are :) awesome work on the website. I am off to Chicago and Miami in November this year, I hope next time I travel is with a Green Card.
 
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