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Dv 2014 european winers here

britsimon said:
Franko, I think you are right - July is looking good. What might happen is a full 5k increase for June, and then less in July and August, but 39k should be good for July (especially if you are at the low end of 39k). EU is going very well. I need to look at the CEAC data, but I think that might mean we are seeing confirmation of an increase in quota for EU AND weaker than expected success rates (low returns, or high AP and refusals). I'm feeling pretty confident that EU will exceed Raevskys estimates and early 40s should be good. I really hope so.
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Let's not forget that the eu numbers slowed down between June and July last year. June might be a disappointment with cn 33000 as the bigger jumps in spring is being digested. By the way I'm surprised that Ukraine has no special cutoff by now.

Also congrats withbeing current in June.
 
Eucn said:
Let's not forget that the eu numbers slowed down between June and July last year. June might be a disappointment with cn 33000 as the bigger jumps in spring is being digested. By the way I'm surprised that Ukraine has no special cutoff by now.

Also congrats withbeing current in June.
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Based on previous years I think EU will be OK till July. Last year when we saw 31k-33k jump from June to July there was more visas issued (the numbers were higher and this year we are at least one month behind except for EU) and there was less selectees. So I think two more 5k jumps and then who knows.
 
I agree with you simon..., referring to the latest CEAC data, Europe with get between 17k and 18k......

britsimon said:
Well yes and no. I think they are showing a preference for EU because the cases are easier BUT it is a huge stretch to see the reversal that Sloner is predicting. My expectation is for EU to pick up about 18 or 18.5 visas. Sloner thinks 23k for EU and 17/18 for AF. I cant see that....
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franko said:
Based on previous years I think EU will be OK till July. Last year when we saw 31k-33k jump from June to July there was more visas issued (the numbers were higher and this year we are at least one month behind except for EU) and there was less selectees. So I think two more 5k jumps and then who knows.
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I'm not sure I follow you but I hope you are right I'm sitting with a cn eu 38xxx
 
I was looking at the CEAC data last night. The global numbers are doing pretty much what I thought - I think we will see nearly 5k visas issued each month - which represents a rationing of supply by KCC (which is what they do via the VB numbers). We are at 16k at the end of Feb, so we will be at around 48 - 50 during August (including aos which isn't in CEAC). September is when the global limit will be hit. I think the worrying thing is that AP cases tend to get magically resolved in September each year. Basically I think in a normal year they have pressure to make up the numbers and resolve a lot of AP cases that have been dormant because they haven't found a reason to deny the case. in September they just push them through. HOWEVER this year, the last minute AP approval rush won't happen because normal cases will push to hit the global limit. That means people sitting on AP in September will have a very worrying time, probably with a unhappy ending. That will be particularly impactful in AF region and to some extent AS (Iran if it is not maxed at that point). That could allow other regions to expand somewhat, so we might even see 19k for EU - and that would be a huge gain for EU.

However, in contrast to that, there is the possibility of regional quotas. I am still not convinced they exist in the way that people say they do - i.e. they may not be as hard as some believe and I tend to believe they are more implemented by the selectee splits. However, if they do exist EU might be limited to 18 or 18.5k and will cutoff. At the present rate of progress (6600 at the end of Feb and growing by over 2k per month) that could come as early as August.

I do believe EU numbers will go a bit higher than Raevsky believes. He sees a max of around 38.5k - I really think early 40s is ok. possibly 45+ if a regional quota does not kick in.
 
vladek15425 said:
Look IMO you rather go CP ! Because of your high CN, and f1 visa to do AOS is bit risky if you dont get H1b at the right time !
You should post also on AOS only thread people will guide you there and specialy som1mom.
She will tell you exactly what to do..... Good luck tom
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Thanks ceskhermina and vladek.
Yes it sounds like I am really at the limit.
Just one thing, according to you, if I still am in F1, it would be less risky to do CP than AOS?
I thought it was the opposite. I did post on AOS only, thanks for the advice :)
 
Well yes and no. I think they are showing a preference for EU because the cases are easier BUT it is a huge stretch to see the reversal that Sloner is predicting. My expectation is for EU to pick up about 18 or 18.5 visas. Sloner thinks 23k for EU and 17/18 for AF. I cant see that....
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You are mistaken. I gave 19000-20000 visas Europe, Africa 17,000-18,000.
 
I do believe EU numbers will go a bit higher than Raevsky believes. He sees a max of around 38.5k - I really think early 40s is ok. possibly 45+ if a regional quota does not kick in.
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Simon drink tea, it activates your brain. Raevskii unfortunately doomed.:(
If you think that 39K will be in July than I have a possibility to have an interview in september o maybe august?
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July-August.
 
sloner how can you say that! knowing AF has nearly double selectees than EU !!!!!
so you telling us the people of KFC are mad ?! Lol
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62000-46000=16000
34%
Fraud, failures, poverty more. than in Europe.
 
totoleleu said:
Thanks ceskhermina and vladek.
Yes it sounds like I am really at the limit.
Just one thing, according to you, if I still am in F1, it would be less risky to do CP than AOS?
I thought it was the opposite. I did post on AOS only, thanks for the advice :)
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I think that you dont have time for AOS because whit a CN 41k you are like me in the high numbers and probably they will start the interview for the 40k in july and I think that 2 months is not enough for AOS so go in France and make the interview there :)
 
My cn # 36xxx I have few question
I think my number be come current in July. Let s say July
1.after be come current m I get interview in 2 weeks?
2.after be come current in the next week kcc send the e -mail than are they give the interview appointment ??
3.as everyone know airline ticket is expensive in summer and I m trying to get airline tickets is it good for flying August 20 . Because I m scare if I get airline ticket in this date and than CN council give interview after this date .
 
Medical appointment in a different country than the embassy appointment?

Dear all,

Here is a weird question, not sure if anybody is able to answer?

I got selected on DV 2014 and was already in the US on a J1 visa. I chose CP over AOS, just in case anything would be wrong with my J1 visa (I heard I would lose the GC while being in AOS process in case of issues with my J1)

My appointment is next month, so I'm travelling back in France during 2 weeks, time to do the medical appointment, the embassy appoitment and to to wait for the visa :)

I was wondering if it would be possible to do the medical appointment here in the US instead of losing a whole day in France? it's probably not cheaper but if I'd rather spend one more day with friends and family than in a doctor's office.

Any idea anyone? Thanks!
 
You'd have to check with the consulate in France. Every case that I have heard of, the consulate insists on the medical being done by panel doctors in the country you're doing CP in.
 
kahta02 said:
My cn # 36xxx I have few question
I think my number be come current in July. Let s say July
1.after be come current m I get interview in 2 weeks?
2.after be come current in the next week kcc send the e -mail than are they give the interview appointment ??
3.as everyone know airline ticket is expensive in summer and I m trying to get airline tickets is it good for flying August 20 . Because I m scare if I get airline ticket in this date and than CN council give interview after this date .
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1. When your CN becomes current, you will recieve the IL letter about 6-8 weeks before your interview.
2. Yes, email is sent within a couple of days of when the VB is released.
3. You should not book or buy airline tickets until after your interview, and your get back your passport with the visa in it. The embassy will tell you the same thing, don't count your chics before the eggs hatch.
 
Pascamel92 said:
Dear all,

Here is a weird question, not sure if anybody is able to answer?

I got selected on DV 2014 and was already in the US on a J1 visa. I chose CP over AOS, just in case anything would be wrong with my J1 visa (I heard I would lose the GC while being in AOS process in case of issues with my J1)

My appointment is next month, so I'm travelling back in France during 2 weeks, time to do the medical appointment, the embassy appoitment and to to wait for the visa :)

I was wondering if it would be possible to do the medical appointment here in the US instead of losing a whole day in France? it's probably not cheaper but if I'd rather spend one more day with friends and family than in a doctor's office.

Any idea anyone? Thanks!
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Medical exam from the US will not be accepted for CP. The exam must be done by the recommended panel doctor in the country where you're doing CP.
 
Sm1smom said:
Medical exam from the US will not be accepted for CP. The exam must be done by the recommended panel doctor in the country where you're doing CP.
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Yes, when doing CP, you must visit the panel doctor in the country of your appointment.

Have a good time in Paris ; and enjoy the good food :D
 
I live In USA with my E2 visa

Sm1smom said:
1. When your CN becomes current, you will recieve the IL letter about 6-8 weeks before your interview.
2. Yes, email is sent within a couple of days of when the VB is released.
3. You should not book or buy airline tickets until after your interview, and your get back your passport with the visa in it. The embassy will tell you the same thing, don't count your chics before the eggs hatch.
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I already Live in usa with E2 wisa.I m trying to travel my country for holiday 3 mount.In this time I want to make sure while I m there I can get my green card.may30-august30 is my travel date.
 
kahta02 said:
I already Live in usa with E2 wisa.I m trying to travel my country for holiday 3 mount.In this time I want to make sure while I m there I can get my green card.may30-august30 is my travel date.
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Well really the safest is to wait till you get your 2NL so you know when your interview date is. I realise you want to book sooner to avoid higher airfares but surely it's better to pay a little extra to be sure you are there at the right time?
 
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