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Will there be special cut off for Nepal?

I doubt there will be a special cut-off for Nepal. IF we see a country-specific cut-off in Asia it would be for Iran.
 
Based on the current progress, Nepal is likely to have a special cut off but it has to depends on the take-up rate from Nepal and how Nepalese case # being distributed. Nepal takes about 26% of the total selectees from Asia, so even it distribute evenly and assuming 4000 selectees applied from 6000 (which is on the low side based on DV-13 statistic), it will have about 333 selectees per month. Normally each consular post can only have 60-80 interview sessions a month, so if we have derivative ratio of 1 to 1, it will create a backlog around 200. Moreover, after 5 months progress, it will also means 1 to 3700 case # do not have much Nepalese, so that will also increase the possibility of having a special cut-off for Nepal.

This is just based on my limited knowledge on DV, so it might be wrong. :)
 
I'm assuming that compared to last year

1) The number of Nepalese selectees didn't dramatically change

2) There is no reason to expect a higher return rate this year

3) The overall Asian regional quota didn't change

then there is no reason for Nepal to get a special cut-off this year given they didn't have one last year.

Of course you could challenge any of the above assumptions. In the case of Iran, I would expect a lot higher return rate this year.
 
c1984 said:
I'm assuming that compared to last year

1) The number of Nepalese selectees didn't dramatically change

2) There is no reason to expect a higher return rate this year

3) The overall Asian regional quota didn't change

then there is no reason for Nepal to get a special cut-off this year given they didn't have one last year.

Of course you could challenge any of the above assumptions. In the case of Iran, I would expect a lot higher return rate this year.
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Nepal has had a huge increase in selectees.

2011 - 2189
2012 - 3258
2013 - 4370
2014 - 6082

I think there will be a cutoff in Nepal.

c1984 and Kayend - I'd be interested in your comments to my post below.

http://forums.immigration.com/showthread.php?563616-January-VB-numbers-released!!!/page9 - Read post number 244.
 
c1984 said:
I'm assuming that compared to last year

1) The number of Nepalese selectees didn't dramatically change

2) There is no reason to expect a higher return rate this year

3) The overall Asian regional quota didn't change

then there is no reason for Nepal to get a special cut-off this year given they didn't have one last year.

Of course you could challenge any of the above assumptions. In the case of Iran, I would expect a lot higher return rate this year.
Click to expand...

How does the return rate had anything to do with special cut off? Return rate will goes back to the pool and there is no country pool. It only has regional pool.
 
kayend said:
How does the return rate had anything to do with special cut off? Return rate will goes back to the pool and there is no country pool. It only has regional pool.
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The return rate indicates how many selectees are willing/able to pursue their case. With a higher rate of return a country will use up their visas faster (= at lower case numbers).
 
c1984 said:
The return rate indicates how many selectees are willing/able to pursue their case. With a higher rate of return a country will use up their visas faster (= at lower case numbers).
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Again, I think we are talking about different thing here. When I said return rate, I mean when a interview scheduled, the selectees are given an opportunity to draw the visa from monthly visa pool from that region. So, if the interview outcome is either rejected or AP, the visa is given back to the regional pool and % of visa return back to the pool is called return rate.
 
kayend said:
Again, I think we are talking about different thing here. When I said return rate, I mean when a interview scheduled, the selectees are given an opportunity to draw the visa from monthly visa pool from that region. So, if the interview outcome is either rejected or AP, the visa is given back to the regional pool and % of visa return back to the pool is called return rate.
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That I would call the Success Rate. I (and many others that I have noticed) use Return Rate for the number of selectee that actually file their forms. You need to file before you get an interview.
 
pollyannaguy said:
Hi britsimon..Do you have any data that among 4370 selectees, how many visas were issued in 2013?
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That data isn't officially published yet. The screen scraped data from CEAC (which is incomplete) shows data by consulate - so we can look at the data for Kathmandu but that would include some foreigners interviewing there and also it would not include Nepalese selectees interviewing in other countries. So it is not a great source of data - but it shows 2688 visas issued. It also shows a very high rate of visas issued.

Once we see official numbers I suspect we will see that Nepal got very close to the 7% cutoff.
 
raevsky said:
Nepalese max number eligible for visa will be 11580 plus/minus 700
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I think Nepal is the first country from Asia to hit the country limit because the take up rate and success rate in Nepal is more than 80% but I think when Nepal hit the country limit, Asia progress should be on 18k case #. Iran will hit the country limit as well but it will be later than Nepal because of AP cases is high in Iran and also their success rate is not that high compare to Nepal. So, both countries will have their special cut off maybe starting in Mar or Apr based on the density of selectees in 4000 to 14000. This will happen when the take up rate is high, if not we might even see Asia hitting 20k case #.
 
raevsky said:
I think Iran will hit quota first, Nepal second, and Asia as a region after that.
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When you say Asia as a region that is interesting. I didn't think there is a quota for a region - at least not a hard number. I thought they would manipulate the speed of the regions relative to each other, but I did not think they would implement a hard stoplike for example say EU hits 18,000 and they don't allow any more...
 
britsimon said:
When you say Asia as a region that is interesting. I didn't think there is a quota for a region - at least not a hard number. I thought they would manipulate the speed of the regions relative to each other, but I did not think they would implement a hard stoplike for example say EU hits 18,000 and they don't allow any more...
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Regional quotas are not fixed because of unpredictable NACARA allocations. Also, the law allows interchanging visas for one region if no applicants are available from another region. But in DV-14 they all are available,
 
i think case will procede asa similar as it did in 2013 and be current for last two months just a psychic feeling
 
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