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Why low cut-off numbers for Asia???????????????????????

M

mdawoodm

Guest
Hi friends,
I am yet again disappointed by the November bulletin, which gives only 2700 for Asia in December. Any ideas why such low numbers, and is there any chance we could see something dramatic. I am giving two bulletin examples which look very similar to this year's bulletin. And I think if the current pace continues for this year's bulletin, this year's bulletin would be the worst ever for Asia. Here are the two bulletins, DV-2005 and DV-2006.

DV-2005

Month Cut-off

October 1,550
November 2600
December 3500
January 3800
February 3800
March 4450
April 5125
May 5825
June 6800
July 7750
August Current
September Current

DV-2006
Month Cut-off
October 2100
November 3500
December 4750
January 6100
February 6900
March 7875
April 9100
May 10500
June 11900
July 13400
August Current
September Current

Based on the agove two bulletints, and the fact that this year we have 16000 Asian winners, what do you predict for Asia in the upcoming months. And also, the highest asian case number that has appeaerd on this forum is 97**.

DV-2013

Month Cut-off

October 1900
November 2350
December 2700
January ?
February ?
March ?
April ?
May ?
June ?
July ?
August ?
September ?

Please replace the question marks, with your guess.

Thanks in advance, and good luck to everyody
 
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DV-2013

Month Cut-off

October 1900
November 2350
December 2700
January 3000
February 3500
March 4000
April 4500
May 5500
June 7000
July 8000
August 9000
September current
 
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May I know what does current means in September? Some people said that is meaning all winner could be apply. However, I saw a website said that means no more VISA will be issued. Please advise.
 
HEY I GUESS CURRENT MEANS ALL THE RANK FOR THE YEAR. We will definitely have interview but we are not sure in which month :) keep on waiting
 
may be u r right since we dunt knoe the highest case number so i just guessed it..so may be in august 13000 hehe
 
Maybe they prefer to have more people from Africa, perhaps they consider there are enough Asian people in the US.
 
DV2013 Cut off Date Prediction in Asia

Based on the average rate...
October 1900
November 2350
December 2700
January 3100
February 3500
March 3900
April 4300
May 4700
June 5100
July 5500
August Current
September Current

I asked the representative. They claimed it has something to do with how many Asian they want to be in the program. Also, the low cut off number indicates that there are lots of qualified applicants who had been issued the visa...
 
My theory: they (the State Dept) is trying to ensure that about the same percentage of DV selectees from each region is processed each month.

Let's say the total number of winners from Asia is 10, and from Africa is 30. If within the first month there are 2 qualified Asians processed (2/10 = 20%) and only 4 qualified Africans processed (4/30 = 13%), then they will increase the rank for Africa on the Visa Bulletin. They hope by the next month the increased rank would bring more qualified Africans to be processed, approaching the percentage for Asians.

Why is this important? Because the Diversity visa is all about proportions. Since there are only 50,000 visas worldwide and 105,628 selectees (47.3% winning chance), they want to make sure close to 47% of African selectees get in, as well as 47% Asian selectees, 47% European selectees, and so on.

Curious about the number of selectees? They have it here:
http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_5715.html
 
Yeah, so slow..

however, i think current means everyone.

dv2012 June bulletin all countries were changed to current with the last cut off days for Africa being 50000 and Asia 40050 in may.

I see case numbers up to 72xxx for Africa and 60xxx for Asia. These people got interviews and got their GC. In September. You can see the same thing happen for DV2011.
 
Hexa said:
My theory: they (the State Dept) is trying to ensure that about the same percentage of DV selectees from each region is processed each month.

Let's say the total number of winners from Asia is 10, and from Africa is 30. If within the first month there are 2 qualified Asians processed (2/10 = 20%) and only 4 qualified Africans processed (4/30 = 13%), then they will increase the rank for Africa on the Visa Bulletin. They hope by the next month the increased rank would bring more qualified Africans to be processed, approaching the percentage for Asians.

Why is this important? Because the Diversity visa is all about proportions. Since there are only 50,000 visas worldwide and 105,628 selectees (47.3% winning chance), they want to make sure close to 47% of African selectees get in, as well as 47% Asian selectees, 47% European selectees, and so on.

Curious about the number of selectees? They have it here:
http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_5715.html
Click to expand...

My theory: they (the State Dept) is trying to ensure that about the same percentage of DV selectees from each region is processed each month.

Let's say the total number of winners from Asia is 10, and from Africa is 30. If within the first month there are 2 qualified Asians processed (2/10 = 20%) and only 4 qualified Africans processed (4/30 = 13%), then they will increase the rank for Africa on the Visa Bulletin. They hope by the next month the increased rank would bring more qualified Africans to be processed, approaching the percentage for Asians.
Click to expand...
I like the hypothesis.

Why is this important? Because the Diversity visa is all about proportions
Click to expand...
Careful,this could be a double edged sword since AF has 52080 winners out of 105,628=49.31%.Isn't it plausible that the proportions that u r asserting could very well follow the winners percentages..no wonder the AF region numbers r way ahead?
 
Obeezyb said:
Careful,this could be a double edged sword since AF has 52080 winners out of 105,628=49.31%.Isn't it plausible that the proportions that u r asserting could very well follow the winners percentages..no wonder the AF region numbers r way ahead?
Click to expand...

Yes, AF numbers are well ahead because 50% of selectees are Africans, compared to about 15% Asians and 30% Europeans. So it's roughly 10 AF for every 6 EU and 3 AS. But if the visa bulletin numbers for Africa is higher than that 10 ratio, it can only mean the State Department is compensating for higher number of Africans who drop off, either because they're not interested in going or failing to meet the requirements.
 
Hexa said:
My theory: they (the State Dept) is trying to ensure that about the same percentage of DV selectees from each region is processed each month.

Let's say the total number of winners from Asia is 10, and from Africa is 30. If within the first month there are 2 qualified Asians processed (2/10 = 20%) and only 4 qualified Africans processed (4/30 = 13%), then they will increase the rank for Africa on the Visa Bulletin. They hope by the next month the increased rank would bring more qualified Africans to be processed, approaching the percentage for Asians.

Why is this important? Because the Diversity visa is all about proportions. Since there are only 50,000 visas worldwide and 105,628 selectees (47.3% winning chance), they want to make sure close to 47% of African selectees get in, as well as 47% Asian selectees, 47% European selectees, and so on.

Curious about the number of selectees? They have it here:
http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_5715.html
Click to expand...

May I ask a questions, 50,000 visa is 50,000 winners only, or 50,000 winners + spouse + dependent? For example, assume every winners with a spouse, and two children, 50,000 visa is total 12,500 winners x 4 = 50,000 people, or 50,000 winners x 4 = 200,000 people come to USA every year? Thank you
 
immgrat said:
May I ask a questions, 50,000 visa is 50,000 winners only, or 50,000 winners + spouse + dependent? For example, assume every winners with a spouse, and two children, 50,000 visa is total 12,500 winners x 4 = 50,000 people, or 50,000 winners x 4 = 200,000 people come to USA every year? Thank you
Click to expand...

It is 50k with derivatives as far as I know. So 10,000 married selectees with 3 children, could get all the visas. :)
 
immgrat said:
May I ask a questions, 50,000 visa is 50,000 winners only, or 50,000 winners + spouse + dependent? For example, assume every winners with a spouse, and two children, 50,000 visa is total 12,500 winners x 4 = 50,000 people, or 50,000 winners x 4 = 200,000 people come to USA every year? Thank you
Click to expand...
I don't know the absolute answer to this question. But, if I have to guess, the number of visas is per person, not per case. while there are many families, there surely are many single persons who win.

Bear in mind that the state department purposely selected more people for processing than the number of visas available, because in their experience not all of the selectees qualify for and want visas, even after they included multiple visas per case in their calculation. In my opinion when you have a case number it is extremely important to make sure you fulfill all of the requirements, otherwise you will be part of the statistics of those who don't get visas.
 
Thank you for your reply.

DV-2006 and DV-2007 Asia issued 7,149 and 6,946 visa respectively. Does it mean case number smaller than 2006AS00007149 and 2007AS00006946 must can interview and get visa?
 
immgrat said:
Thank you for your reply.

DV-2006 and DV-2007 Asia issued 7,149 and 6,946 visa respectively. Does it mean case number smaller than 2006AS00007149 and 2007AS00006946 must can interview and get visa?
Click to expand...
Case number is just a number that determines how soon you can file (AOS) or get called for interview (CP). If your number is low enough, you're pretty much guaranteed to get an interview, but you're not guaranteed to get a visa.
 
Hexa said:
Case number is just a number that determines how soon you can file (AOS) or get called for interview (CP). If your number is low enough, you're pretty much guaranteed to get an interview, but you're not guaranteed to get a visa.
Click to expand...

Thank you for your reply.

May I ask you, what's the factor interviewed but not get visa?

Assume there is 7,000 Asia visa will issue in DV-2013, does it mean that more than 7,000 Asia people will be interview such as 7,500?
 
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