Where are the Visa Numbers???

O

overWait

Registered Users (C)
Before retrogressing on Jan 1st, 2005, USCIS was processing June 2002 which means most of the cases prior to this date must have already been processed.

Then there was lot of noise about illegal to leagal conversion that was so called holding up the approval of the cases filed after April 30th, 2001...I am not sure but I don't think any illegal case got approved yet.

Given 140K visa numbers made available every year, we should have seen at least 280K visa numbers available (2006 & 2007) by now, if i am not mistaken. I am wondering where are these visa numbers.

Now that April 30th, 2001 has already been crossed by all the countries, I wonder if this really is a Visa Number issue???

Any thoughts!!!!
 
god knows

yes by jan 1 ,2005. there are lot of people waiting for gc's.They are clearing those .I am glad ther are no 1999,2000 cases(unless name check or any other problem).they are making sure for Bush 's plan 6 months process time first high imp.Now backlog centers started releasing 67% cases so tthey are in the first lane...at this point even they made 290k visas it is not going to fast...Mine is July 2001.I am waiting for long time.My employer enjoying a lot ...................i am in a situation to use AC21 .My hope any time so i dont want to use ac21 just wait for visa dates current....


CRAPY SYSTEM FOR HIGH TAX PAYERS
 
Well the point that I am trying to stress upon is, if illegal cases are not processed, then where are those visa numbers gone. I sincerely doubt that there are 280K applications pending with priority date before June 2002.

I guess until there is an serious intent to hold on GC processing for EB3 cases, may be to pressurize congress to reform entire immigration process and/or fund the entire department (+ all its siblings) from our pocket, I don't see any reason for not issuing any GC under EB3 category.

There just seems to be some malicious intent. Any thoughts!!!
 
the visa numbers are there and serta is right, i just fair, they are trying to be fair to everyone around the world. It sucks but there's nothing we can do, unless they rise the visa numbers.
 
So far 67% of the case have been processed and only a 33% of those got certified. That means only 71,000 are certified as of Jan 27/ 2007
Total LC = 321,000 (159,000 DBEC + 162,000 PBEC)
Processed = 321,000 * 67% = 215,070
Certified = 215,070 * 33% = 71,000

Visa Numbers needed for the Certified cases = 71,000 * 4 = 284,000 (Assuming 4 person per family: Principal applicant, spouse and two kids which is way very conservative). Please be aware that some of those certified LC goes to the same applicant and that reduce the visa numbers needed but we can not quantify that. In my case I have two.

But those certified cases have different priority date (from 2001 to 2005). So if we distribuite evenly the cases into the years (Very conservative because there should be more cases for recent years) we can conclude they need to allocate (284,000 / 5 years) = 56,800 visa numbers per year.

There is a total of 140K /year visa numbers for EB categories but not all of them need LC. Let’s assume 40K don’t need LC (Very conservative, because only L1 Executive Managers, National waiver petition and the like don’t need LC. I don’t know about nurses today but some month ago they used to have their on quota). So there should be 140K – 40K (Don’t need LC) = 100K avalaible each year for petition that requires LC.

Retrogression started on Jan 2005 but according to these calculation there should not be any retrogression because the annual qouta is enough to satisfy the demand(56.8K visas for LC petition < 100K visa number for LC petition / year ).

It would be very nice if we can get a breakdown of the Certified LCs by priority date but I think most of them ar from 2003 on.

I will appreciate if you can add to the previous analisys.

The goods news is that cut-off dates should be moving very fast very soon!!!
 
overWait said:
Before retrogressing on Jan 1st, 2005, USCIS was processing June 2002 which means most of the cases prior to this date must have already been processed.
Click to expand...
WRONG! While VSC was approving case filed as late as 2004, folks who applied at NSC in 2001 and 2002 were still waiting. Lot of people who undeservedly got GC approved merely because the applied at the right service center. Retrogression has restored parity.
 
hay guyz,
Thanks for putting in some good thoughts and analysis. Looking at of movement of priority dates and also the reports on state department website the number of GCs issued from 2003 to 2005 in EB123 catagory it just makes things more difficult to understand.

2005
Jan - Jun -> C
Jul - Sep -> U
Oct - Nov -> 01MAR01
Dec -> 15MAR01
2006
Jan -> 01APR01
Feb -> 22APR01
Mar - May -> 01MAY01
Jun -> 01JUL01
Jul - Aug -> 01OCT01
Sep -> 01MAR02
Oct -> 01MAY02
Nov -> 01JUL02
Dec -> 01AUG02
2007
Jan - Feb -> 01AUG02


Immigration Visa Issued and Adjustment of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations by Fiscal Year

2006 reports not published yet

2005 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY05tableV.pdf) for India
EB3 - 23,350
EB2 - 16,687
EB1 - 6,336
2004 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY04tableV.pdf) for India
EB3 - 19,889
EB2 - 16,262
EB1 - 2,998
2003 (http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY04tableV.pdf) for India
EB3 - 10,647
EB2 - 8,536
EB1 - 1,266

sertra2002 - You are right that each country has annual limitation. But also if the worldwide visa numbers are not used up, then they are distributed to the countries with annual limitation. That is the reason India has been getting 10K-23K+ visas each year.

frestre - I would like to differ on some points in your analysis. To my knowledge, the 67% of LC clearance that we are talking about are coming from Backlog Elimination Center (BEC) and BEC has cases from, I guess, Mid or late 2003. So the cases prior to BEC cases should not be impacted by BEC clearing the cases. We cannot do the simple maths --> 284,000 / 5 years = 56,800 visa numbers per year.

There are a limited number of cases floating around with priority before June 2002 but I am sure that won't eat up even 1% of any countries quota.

tipotodo - "they are trying to be fair to everyone around the world.". Well, I understand your point and I very much want to believe you but some how looking at the figures I am finding it hard to believe. I guess we are getting tossed up due to some damn politics. This all started from presidential re-election when we started hearing illegal to legal conversion. Thats when it came to screatching halt. I am not against any of illegal to legal conversion but in my opinion they should be given a seperate quota and let not impact the guyz entering thru legal channel.
 
armie said:
WRONG! While VSC was approving case filed as late as 2004, folks who applied at NSC in 2001 and 2002 were still waiting. Lot of people who undeservedly got GC approved merely because the applied at the right service center. Retrogression has restored parity.
Click to expand...

armie - I understand where you are comming from and you are right also. To my understanding this happened somewhere close to re-election. What I heard was at that time three committees were formed for each of the year 2002, 2003 & 2004. This was to create and impression that GC processing has really picked up the pace and most of the cases will be processed within Six months time frame. But it was again political stunt and nothing more than that. There were only a handful of cases that were approved (i guess you can count them on your fingures) but they made lot of noise and it solved the political purpose. But then immidiately after the election, every thing was back to where it was. The simple logic is, if the PD is not current you cannot file your I485 in any of the service center.
 
overWait, in part you are right, here how i see it.
If each country gets "4,000" visa numbers a year, even though is fair for each country, what about population in each country meaning if India gets 4,000 visa numbers for 2006 Costa Rica gets 4,000, the problem is population there are way more people in India then in Costa Rica. Thats when it gets tricky , it appears it fair, but once you analize the countries poupulation it makes no sence and I agree with you IS ALL about politics!!!!
 
Seems this trend is here to stay...

well looks like all the previous year unused visa numbers are being used up in the past couple of years and now until we have CIR passed soon and it brings in some relief on yearly GC quota...it seems this trend of priority date hangging on to every months for a while before moving next month is gonna be a norm...

Seems CIR is targetted for passage before August....if it is delayed God only knows what will happen to this immigration system....35% house seats are up for re-election this year....and election is due in November...that will be followed by Presidential Priamaries (Gosh too many candidates this time so can't expect any real work next year except their own election prep)....then the presenditial election iteself next year November 2008...

Looks like if CIR is not passed by Jul 2007, then it doesn;t stand a chance until March 2009...

Bad for immigration community....Any thoughts???
 
Well....it sounds we are moving towards yet another retrogression. All the No offence but the truth is all the Non-RIR to RIR conversion will flood the demand for visa numbers. Not sure but the noise is that many of the cases have PD that go as far back as 1998.

And now since all the previously captured visa number are all used up, a relief of new visa numbers is scheduled as far as October, with the current pace about 3000 GC in EB3 each year....I really wonder if it would be wishful thinking to expect any substantial moves in PD before october this year until CIR is passed. I guess October would also be not all that great given the new Non-RIR to RIR requirements.

Guyz, wanna throw some hope in this hopeless situation???
 
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