When will EB2 India reach Aug 2005?

I agree with aawara ,that unused visa numbers from EB 1 , 4 ,5 wil go to EB 2 and that might help EB 2 showing some forward movement in July and August. I think due to PERM System problems during March - June 2005 there wont be much approved cases of Eb 2 or Eb 3 during tht period, so we should see movement till June 2005 for EB 2. If lots of sub labors are there then this whole calculation will change.

Just a thought.
 
Just a thought

What if USCIS did not receive expected number of applications by the middle of June (July visa bulletin time)?

Will they move it by only few months and wait for another month to get the targeted applications?
OR
Will they make a big jump to get the expected numbers of applications (expected $s too)?
 
See what kind of sh*t happens when UN deletes his posts. Now these guys think that there are some EB1 numbers allocated for India that will trickle down to EB2.
 
Can You please explain what do you mean by trickling of numbers from EB 1 to EB 2 for India. What happens to unused Eb 1 india visa numbers?
 
delhi_boy said:
Can You please explain what do you mean by trickling of numbers from EB 1 to EB 2 for India. What happens to unused Eb 1 india visa numbers?
Click to expand...

I believe EB1 Ind to Eb2 Ind trickle does not happen until EB3 row becomes current.
I do remember a couple of posts by UN stating this for a fact. And he did show some statistics proving that.
 
alexberg said:
See what kind of sh*t happens when UN deletes his posts. Now these guys think that there are some EB1 numbers allocated for India that will trickle down to EB2.
Click to expand...
UN was good but he didn't know everything. Read the below link and explanation of EB2 category.

http://www.shusterman.com/employmt.html

It clearly says the following

EB1 = "Priority workers (28.6% of the worldwide level of visas, or approximately 40,000 visas PLUS unused special immigrant and investor visas, if any)"

EB2 = "Professionals with advanced degrees and persons of exceptional ability (28.6% of the worldwide level of visas, or approximately 40,000 visas PLUS unused visas from priority worker category, if any)"

Statistics and calculations don't mean anything until the facts are correctly followed. I would expect members on this forum to do their own research instead of taking for granted other member's speculations and blindly following what they hear and read.

Conclusion: Unused EB4,EB5 and EB1 numbers will flow into EB2. If you know differently show me the proof like I did. Don't give me bull about He said... She said...
 
Sometimes all rules are not followed to the word...

aawara said:
UN was good but he didn't know everything. Read the below link and explanation of EB2 category.

http://www.shusterman.com/employmt.html

It clearly says the following

EB1 = "Priority workers (28.6% of the worldwide level of visas, or approximately 40,000 visas PLUS unused special immigrant and investor visas, if any)"

EB2 = "Professionals with advanced degrees and persons of exceptional ability (28.6% of the worldwide level of visas, or approximately 40,000 visas PLUS unused visas from priority worker category, if any)"

Statistics and calculations don't mean anything until the facts are correctly followed. I would expect members on this forum to do their own research instead of taking for granted other member's speculations and blindly following what they hear and read.

Conclusion: Unused EB4,EB5 and EB1 numbers will flow into EB2. If you know differently show me the proof like I did. Don't give me bull about He said... She said...
Click to expand...


I was not a fan of UN... In fact I did not like him much becaase he espoused sub-labor...
But some of the facts he did lay out were convincing and one of them was this..
The rule does say "plus unused special immigrant and investor visas"... but it does not specify the conditions under which this will apply... nor does it say whether it will be implemented country by country basis.. so, it was open to interpretation by the uscis (which indeed interpreted it wrongly!). so what actually happened the last couple of years was that the unused Eb1 actually went to Eb3 row, instead of going to Eb2Ind.

I just hope and pray they have relaized their dumbness and now trickle this to Eb2Ind.. (and to me :) )
EB2
 
EB2 INDIA will move

EB2INDPD2005 said:
I was not a fan of UN... In fact I did not like him much becaase he espoused sub-labor...
But some of the facts he did lay out were convincing and one of them was this..
The rule does say "plus unused special immigrant and investor visas"... but it does not specify the conditions under which this will apply... nor does it say whether it will be implemented country by country basis.. so, it was open to interpretation by the uscis (which indeed interpreted it wrongly!). so what actually happened the last couple of years was that the unused Eb1 actually went to Eb3 row, instead of going to Eb2Ind.

I just hope and pray they have relaized their dumbness and now trickle this to Eb2Ind.. (and to me :) )
EB2
Click to expand...

I too think you are right. They will fix this problem in the next bulletin and move EB-2 India to at least Sept 2005. I don't think they will take the country quota too seriously when it comes to moving dates because then some more visas will be wasted. They can always take care of the country quotas when they approve cases. So I am positive we will see a huge leap in EB-2 India.
 
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I hope you guys are right. I am looking forward to file 485 in the next few months. Visa expired so AP would give me a chance to visit home.
 
Not so fast

All of you guys are exuding optimism. While that would be good for the minds in the midst of all this very long period of uncertainly, there is not a basis in fact for any of these predictions.
Here are some things we need to consider.
1) They announced when they retrogressed that AC21 provisions were being set aside and that India would not get more than its 7% quota.
2) They stuck to this for nearly 2 yrs and moved EB every other country at a healthy clip. Right now all EB2 (except India) and EB3 ROW are at reasonable wait times. I mean after all you have to expect to atleast wait a couple of years if you want a green card right!
3) Now coming to the final quarter of the fiscal year, they have found that visa numbers are likely to go wasted if they do not move dates in such a way that "approvable" or "pre-adjudicated" cases are moved out of the system. Hence their generous movements.
4) Absent some congressional intervention. Once the new 2008 fiscal year starts they are likely to revert to their old game plan of setting aside AC21 provisions. The dates for EB2 are therefore likely to go back to early 2003 then. Between now and Sept. we may yet see more forward movement, depending on how many cases they are able to approve.
5) I feel they set the dates on how many 485s they are adjudicating, rather than how many are being filed. They see the first issue as able to take care of itself and give them more fees in the interim.

So while I admire the optimism, I thought I would inject some realism to the debate!
 
posmd said:
All of you guys are exuding optimism. While that would be good for the minds in the midst of all this very long period of uncertainly, there is not a basis in fact for any of these predictions.
Here are some things we need to consider.
1) They announced when they retrogressed that AC21 provisions were being set aside and that India would not get more than its 7% quota.
2) They stuck to this for nearly 2 yrs and moved EB every other country at a healthy clip. Right now all EB2 (except India) and EB3 ROW are at reasonable wait times. I mean after all you have to expect to atleast wait a couple of years if you want a green card right!
3) Now coming to the final quarter of the fiscal year, they have found that visa numbers are likely to go wasted if they do not move dates in such a way that "approvable" or "pre-adjudicated" cases are moved out of the system. Hence their generous movements.
4) Absent some congressional intervention. Once the new 2008 fiscal year starts they are likely to revert to their old game plan of setting aside AC21 provisions. The dates for EB2 are therefore likely to go back to early 2003 then. Between now and Sept. we may yet see more forward movement, depending on how many cases they are able to approve.
5) I feel they set the dates on how many 485s they are adjudicating, rather than how many are being filed. They see the first issue as able to take care of itself and give them more fees in the interim.

So while I admire the optimism, I thought I would inject some realism to the debate!
Click to expand...

Good Analysis. DOS movement is highly unpredictable. Any thing may happen. In last two months, we have seen turbulant movement in cutoff dates. EB3 ROW has jumbed by 3 years (2002 to 2005). I do not know howmany will be left for EB2 India due to massive movement in EB3-ROW.
Also, it is a big surprise in last bulliton EB3 India, Mexico has jumbed by alomst 2 years. But not much movement in EB2 India. When EB3 ROW retrogressed, it is a big surprise to see such a massive movement in EB3 India and Mexico. No matter what EB3 India and Mexico will get only 3000 EB3 visas only in this year. As DOS is not foloowing any scentific method, no one can predict what will happen next 5 months. It appears that they are continously using EB2 numbers to clear backloggs in EB3, like last year and 2005. In last year, they issued only 22,000 EB2 visas compare to more than 69,000 EB3 visas. I hope in last quarter, they do not follow country quota. In last quarter, if they left with lot of EB2 numbers, they should issue those to EB2 rather than EB3-ROW. If this happens, there may be a movement in EB2 till September. But how far ..? It is a big question mark. No one knows, how next 3 to 5 visas bullitons going to be. But one thing is sure. It is going to follw rollercoaster.
 
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EB2 movement till September? I am hoping it will move at least a year to April 1st, 2005 in the next 3 months if not the next month itself. Lets hope for the best.
 
deba_sinh said:
EB2 movement till September? I am hoping it will move at least a year to April 1st, 2005 in the next 3 months if not the next month itself. Lets hope for the best.
Click to expand...

Because PERM started around April 2005 (I think), and ppl were waiting for it to start for about a year, not many applications were made until then. Hence, it is reasonable to guess that EB-2 India will move to at least April 2005.
 
qplearn said:
Because PERM started around April 2005 (I think), and ppl were waiting for it to start for about a year, not many applications were made until then. Hence, it is reasonable to guess that EB-2 India will move to at least April 2005.
Click to expand...

I had thought so too! and speaking to some of my colleagues, they seemed to share this opinion.
But on talking to my lawyer recently, he says it was actually the opposite. People were not sure about PERM and lot of filings before PERM took place!


EB2
 
EB2INDPD2005 said:
I had thought so too! and speaking to some of my colleagues, they seemed to share this opinion.
But on talking to my lawyer recently, he says it was actually the opposite. People were not sure about PERM and lot of filings before PERM took place!


EB2
Click to expand...

Both EB2 and EB3 was current for India till later part of 2004. First ever announcement of retrogression in EB was announced by DOS in June/July 2004only. Till that point no one cared about, EB3 or EB2. After that indiation by DOS, EB3 become a non-prefered catagory, particularly for Indians and Chinese. After June or July 2004, I think almost all of them prefered to go for EB2 whether, it is a tradional or RIR or PERM LC.
 
Yep. Based on my understanding, it is likely that dates might retrogress in near future.
1. If you read the first paragraph of the bulletin, the cut of dates are set based on the chronological list of documentariliy qualified (i.e,. all checks are done and just waiting for visa number) and available visa numbers for that month.

2. Since EB3 ROW is not current, India (or any retro) EB2/EB3 only get GCs around 2800/year (including dependents) i.e, around 230/month. My assumption is they have been very conservative about this number 'expecting' demand from BEC. So they might have probably released much less than 230. And now since the fiscal year is coming to end and still no materialized demand (i.e., not many 'new' apps with old PDs made to final qualified stage), they are forced to move the cut-off dates further. This means folks with later PDs, but applied earlier (before the retro in Oct' 05) would get their GC's than folks with earlier PDs, but filed (or about to file) 485 recently.

3. Now the flood gates now open for tremendous amount of new I485 filings (in my office alone there would be 5 filings and my friends company he says there are more than 10 and you can guess). Once these new 485 filings start reaching the final approval stage, things start to pile up visa numbers. Please note that many of these new filings would be folks with early PDs but couldn't file for 485 because of delayed approvals from BEC and retrogression.

4. We can see from some postings that if Name check goes smooth and no RFE, GCs can be approved in even 6 months from date of 485 filing (in fact my Nepali colleague got in 4 months for EB2). So, I am guessing the new rush for visa numbers would start from end of this year or may be early next year. If these new qualified applications start exceeding the monthly/quarterly quota, dates might start to retrogress.

Well, this is my understanding of the system. I may be wrong.

posmd said:
All of you guys are exuding optimism. While that would be good for the minds in the midst of all this very long period of uncertainly, there is not a basis in fact for any of these predictions.
Here are some things we need to consider.
1) They announced when they retrogressed that AC21 provisions were being set aside and that India would not get more than its 7% quota.
2) They stuck to this for nearly 2 yrs and moved EB every other country at a healthy clip. Right now all EB2 (except India) and EB3 ROW are at reasonable wait times. I mean after all you have to expect to atleast wait a couple of years if you want a green card right!
3) Now coming to the final quarter of the fiscal year, they have found that visa numbers are likely to go wasted if they do not move dates in such a way that "approvable" or "pre-adjudicated" cases are moved out of the system. Hence their generous movements.
4) Absent some congressional intervention. Once the new 2008 fiscal year starts they are likely to revert to their old game plan of setting aside AC21 provisions. The dates for EB2 are therefore likely to go back to early 2003 then. Between now and Sept. we may yet see more forward movement, depending on how many cases they are able to approve.
5) I feel they set the dates on how many 485s they are adjudicating, rather than how many are being filed. They see the first issue as able to take care of itself and give them more fees in the interim.

So while I admire the optimism, I thought I would inject some realism to the debate!
Click to expand...
 
EB3/EB2 -- First Retrogression on January 1st 2005.

EB3/EB2 -- Massive Retrogression again June 2005.

The majority of 2002/2003/2004 were filed in EB3...From Jan 2005 other way around to EB2...

Sree

perm_lc said:
Both EB2 and EB3 was current for India till later part of 2004. First ever announcement of retrogression in EB was announced by DOS in June/July 2004only. Till that point no one cared about, EB3 or EB2. After that indiation by DOS, EB3 become a non-prefered catagory, particularly for Indians and Chinese. After June or July 2004, I think almost all of them prefered to go for EB2 whether, it is a tradional or RIR or PERM LC.
Click to expand...
 
sree1965 said:
EB3/EB2 -- First Retrogression on January 1st 2005.

EB3/EB2 -- Massive Retrogression again June 2005.

The majority of 2002/2003/2004 were filed in EB3...From Jan 2005 other way around to EB2...

Sree
Click to expand...

No. first indication was given in July 2004 visa bulliton.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_1349.html

If you see, oct-2004 Visa bulliton it says EB3, IN,CH, MX will retrogress in Jan 2005.

So, in Jan 2005, only EB3 (IN,CH,MX) retrogressed. EB2 was current for India and China till Sep 2005.
 
My hope (not prediction) is that EB3 ROW becomes current so all the excess can be started to be transferred into retrogressed categories....hopefully EB2 India..
 
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