wallst_wizz
Registered Users (C)
Interesting Phenomenon
Here is an another nice observation. Stock market has been down for 3 years, happened only from 1939 to 1942 before that was in the war and depression period. No one expected market going down more than 2 years and were betting on 3 rd year bull, unfortunately many were wrong. Have you read (wade cook's book 2 years down 3rd year Bull : LMAO).
Here is the chart which gives you some light how markets respond to individuals personal debts. Beacuse market is sum of rich and poor and every ones market sentiment. Federa reserve announce the personal debt payments interms of personal Income. That was the source of my research. Currently the personal debt is at highest (14+ %) as of 3qtr 2002, which is altime high. Usually the debt payment runs from any where between 12 % to 14 % in america. Which is very consistent through out in the history. That is 6% mortgage payments, and personal debt payments ranging from 6 to 8 %makes 12-14% debt payment. In simple terms when debt is less people invest more and opposite when debt is more.
If you observe the attached graph the individual debt is at low in 82 and 92 and market moved upwards, and watch right before 2nd qtr 87 the debt payment went above 14 percent and continued then market crashed bringing S&P 500 from 320 + to around 240.
Watch the similar patterns at 1992 and 2001. Market became bull after 1992 and continued until debt load reached 14 percent. since then the debt load is still more than 14 percent. And people borrowing more and more for mortage loans. If interest rates go up and payments will follow eventually more payments from personal income. it tells couple of things about future 2003 on wards. Housing market is above to collapse may be not tomorrow but likely in future. And in postive note debt payments are at the peak percentage and will be turning around which means market sentiment may be good in future despite possible Iraqi war. Hope you like this graphic peresentation.
Sp500 Vs Personal Debt
More details at
Here is an another nice observation. Stock market has been down for 3 years, happened only from 1939 to 1942 before that was in the war and depression period. No one expected market going down more than 2 years and were betting on 3 rd year bull, unfortunately many were wrong. Have you read (wade cook's book 2 years down 3rd year Bull : LMAO).
Here is the chart which gives you some light how markets respond to individuals personal debts. Beacuse market is sum of rich and poor and every ones market sentiment. Federa reserve announce the personal debt payments interms of personal Income. That was the source of my research. Currently the personal debt is at highest (14+ %) as of 3qtr 2002, which is altime high. Usually the debt payment runs from any where between 12 % to 14 % in america. Which is very consistent through out in the history. That is 6% mortgage payments, and personal debt payments ranging from 6 to 8 %makes 12-14% debt payment. In simple terms when debt is less people invest more and opposite when debt is more.
If you observe the attached graph the individual debt is at low in 82 and 92 and market moved upwards, and watch right before 2nd qtr 87 the debt payment went above 14 percent and continued then market crashed bringing S&P 500 from 320 + to around 240.
Watch the similar patterns at 1992 and 2001. Market became bull after 1992 and continued until debt load reached 14 percent. since then the debt load is still more than 14 percent. And people borrowing more and more for mortage loans. If interest rates go up and payments will follow eventually more payments from personal income. it tells couple of things about future 2003 on wards. Housing market is above to collapse may be not tomorrow but likely in future. And in postive note debt payments are at the peak percentage and will be turning around which means market sentiment may be good in future despite possible Iraqi war. Hope you like this graphic peresentation.
Sp500 Vs Personal Debt
More details at