What is the Case Number's meaning?

[kmcgrady]

Hi everyone, I see a lot of people talking about case numbers and have a few questions.

1. IF I win on 1st May do I automatically get a case number?
2. Is it possible to tell from a case number when your interview will be (approx) and your chances of actually getting a green card?
3. If you have a low case number, providing nothing bad comes up in your interview, are you pretty much guaranteed your green card?

I would really love to get the answers to these questions.

P.S I'm in Northern Ireland and less than 40 people per year win. Does that mean that winners here would get processed more quickly? Also because the population here is pretty low (1.7million) do I have a higher chance of winning than somebody in a country with a much higher population?

 

[sonibago]

good questions kmcgrady.

Since everything will be done online this year I suspect that the winner will know his case # right after being notified of winning. I however wonder if the DS 230 forms will have to be filled out and submitted online as well?

Knowing the case # and checking past visa bulletins, a winner can have a fairly good idea of when his interview will come up. Once an interview date is set, actually getting the DV visa depends on how well the 'winner' satisfies the requirements for the DV visa (education, correct info, consular interview etc).

Anyway with respect to your chances of winning, it was said that all participants have an equal chance of winning since the winners are pulled from the entire pool and not by region. That being said, statistics and probabilities will show that more winners will come from regions with higher levels of participation. Think of a bag with 100 balls where 50 are green, 20 white, 20 yellow and 10 blue, just by random blind picking, the probability of choosing a green ball is higher, because there are more green balls in the bag.

 

[kmcgrady]

Thanks for your reply. 1 last question: If my interview (if I win) is after October can I apply for next years lottery in case I fail the interview or don't get one.

 

[sonibago]

yes you can......

 

[kmcgrady]

Thanks

 

[win dv]

good questions kmcgrady.

Since everything will be done online this year I suspect that the winner will know his case # right after being notified of winning. I however wonder if the DS 230 forms will have to be filled out and submitted online as well?

Knowing the case # and checking past visa bulletins, a winner can have a fairly good idea of when his interview will come up. Once an interview date is set, actually getting the DV visa depends on how well the 'winner' satisfies the requirements for the DV visa (education, correct info, consular interview etc).

Anyway with respect to your chances of winning, it was said that all participants have an equal chance of winning since the winners are pulled from the entire pool and not by region. That being said, statistics and probabilities will show that more winners will come from regions with higher levels of participation. Think of a bag with 100 balls where 50 are green, 20 white, 20 yellow and 10 blue, just by random blind picking, the probability of choosing a green ball is higher, because there are more green balls in the bag.

In addition, they apportioned a 'winning' percentage to each region (i.e. each region has a different winning percentage).

 

[iren]

If someone wins, he will get the green card for sure, right?
I mean if he has all the requirements such as high school degree or work etc...
Is there a possibility to be a winner and the process to stop? In which cases?

How many people are being selected? 50,000? or more?

 

[Sukie]

Iren,
If someone wins a lottery number, he or she has an opportunity for a green card, but it is not a sure thing.

1. They select MORE than 50,000 people, so the higher your selection number, the worse your chances are. Also, there are 50,000 TOTAL green cards available. If lots of people with numbers lower than you are bringing a lot of dependents with them, then these dependents will use up a lot of the slots for the green cards.
2. Even if you have all the requirements, which is a good thing, there still might be something that keeps you from getting a green card. Number one is finances. If your work experience is in an area where the likelihood of your getting a job in the US is very small, you may be asked to have a sponsor. If you cannot find a sponsor to sign for you, you will not get a green card.
3. There is a sad story of a guy where he went to school for 12 years, but did not have a diploma that was recognized by the United States. He got all the way through the process, and then was rejected after he had already paid all his visa fees. If you are borderline with your education requirements or your work requirements or your finances, these are all reasons for the process to stop.
4. If they find out that you lied or misled them in any way during the process, the process will stop.

As long as you have been honest, you have good qualifications, and enough money, and your number is low enough, your changes are VERY good.

 

[Dabug]

can someone please help me - i have to leave US to go back home (where i havent been for 4 years) for my interview. i have everything required and a clean record. BUT my number is 2011EU000247**. Based on my number, what are my chances? if i leave for the interview and it fails, i have to stay there. but my home is here. i have nothing and nobody back in my country.
thank you!!!

 

[Sukie]

Dabug, if you have been scheduled for an interview, and your education, finances and paperwork is ok, then you should have good chances, even with that number. It sounds from your post that you've already been scheduled. If your number range has been reported in the bulletin, and you've been asked to report for an interview, then that means there are still visas available for your region. How are you currently in the United States? Under what type of visa?