Offcourse, retrogression will set in...but, not beyond the previous for EB3. I believe they'll start at May-2001 & start moving ahead slowly.I do not see much hope for EB-3. It is only going to get worse from here.
Here is my logic:
With the July VB Fiasco, USCIS allowed half a million of new applications (just a guess it could be much more according to other estimates). Most of these applications were based on labor that were filed a while back but were stuck in DOL backlogs. DOL have cleared their backlogs big time in recent past. Now when October Bulletin will come out it will take into account the new applications filed with old PDs so it will retrogress real bad even for EB-2 I beleive but for EB-3 big time. I am talking about non-ROW countries. This may not look bad in October...depending on their receipting speed of new application but will get worse as month pass by. So some relief may come toward the end on 2008 yr quota.
People who do not get approval by Septemeber (due to pre-adjudication logic) are in for a long haul. We are royally screwed. Now seems like even 5 yrs wont be not long enough. Can not guess the date buy my thought is that it should go backward then the last EB-3 dates. Sigh.
Anyone...any other logic or any flaw in my thought process???
MV
It is a shame that they ended up backdating the EBs. Regular EB3 have moved back 5 years. They put legal immigrants in roller coaster, then they wonder where did all these illegal immigrants came from. It is time to do another protest like what happened last month ago. Lets send those flowers to USCIS.
Over 70% of the labor BEC got cleared before June. Most people who applied in July but could not apply in June or earlier have done so because their PD was not old enough; not because they were stuck in the BEC.
So while there may have been a half million who applied in July, the vast majority of them will have relatively new priority dates, like 2004 or later. The only logical reason for setting the EB3 dates back to 2002 or earlier is to focus on approving the old cases that are still pending after several years; not because of the new flood of I-485 applications in July/August.
Over 70% of the labor BEC got cleared before June. Most people who applied in July but could not apply in June or earlier have done so because their PD was not old enough; not because they were stuck in the BEC.
So while there may have been a half million who applied in July, the vast majority of them will have relatively new priority dates, like 2004 or later. The only logical reason for setting the EB3 dates back to 2002 or earlier is to focus on approving the old cases that are still pending after several years; not because of the new flood of I-485 applications in July/August.
It was available all along until the July fiasco. EB3 ROW moved forward by a year in May, then in June both EB3 India and EB3 ROW jumped forward by more than a year.Were EB-3 guys able to apply prior to July VB? I thought it was unavailable.
Given the large number of cases that have been recently approved and are now out of the queue, I definitely would not expect things to be worse than they were in May. Maybe in October-December they will set the dates very far back because of their fear of "anticipated demand", but after that there will be pressure on DHS and USCIS to move the dates forward and start approving more cases. With your PD in 2002, I would be surprised if you don't become current before next year September.So you are saying that some one like me EB-3 with PD of Aug '02 India hold hope? You think it wont retrogress for whole next year?
I can't. The dates in October probably will not have any rational basis. USCIS likes to start the fiscal year lazily. I don't think the dates will reflect the reality of the situation until sometime next year when the Ombudsman and others question why the approval rate is so slow.Jack please predict what will happen on October VB for eb3 row!