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YJay

Registered Users (C)
Here are the total numbers of ALL cases on NDs from EAC-02-030 EAC-02-164. I could not check I-485 cases becasue I would have been denied access for checking too many numbers.
ND range 030-066
#NDs Total CAses %
06 <4000 16%
03 4000-4500 8%
28 >4500 76%
067-164 - Mainly Dec RDs and later
38 <4000 39%
31 4000-4500 32%
29 >4500 30%

Here are some samples a few days before EAC-02-164 and a few days after EAC-02-061

EAC-02-061 5936
EAC-02-062 4511
EAC-02-063 5461
EAC-02-064 468
EAC-02-065 6526
EAC-02-066 4566

EAC-02-160 3664
EAC-02-161 1186
EAC-02-162 5339
EAC-02-163 4114
EAC-02-164 3354

I remeber someone asked why he did not see many approvals of EAC-02-064 cases. Not a suprise. The total number of receipts issued on that day is VERY SMALL - hope it'll answer your question.

Hope this info is of some use to all anxious GC waiters.
 
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Very good Job!

This lends support to the theory that the months December, January, February and March are much lighter than October and November.
 
YJay

I have some trouble comprehending the stats you provided in this table:
#NDs Total CAses %
06 <4000 16%
03 4000-4500 8%
28 >4500 76%
067-164 - Mainly Dec RDs and later
38 <4000 39%
31 4000-4500 32%
29 >4500 30%

Could you please explain?
 
yjay

When you say
31 4000-4500 32%
do you mean 02-031- or 02-131 could you please clarify your stats.
Thanks
DM
 
Somebody clarify the below one:

EAC-02-065 6526

Does this mean on "065" day alone, they received "6526" I-485 applications? Then how come approval of 10 to 20 cases a day is any solution at all?
 
Awaiting approval, to answer your question.

The range from the EAC-02-033 series to EAC-02-066 series had 34 days. Of these 34 days, 28 days (or 82%) had more than 4500 applications per day (not all of these were I-485 applications, but in all likelihood the share of I-485 application versus ofther types of application should be more or less similar for each day and follow the rules of statistical variance).

In contrast, for the range EAC-02-067 to EAC-02-164 had 98 days. Of these 98 days, just 29 days (or 30%) had more than 4500 applications. This is a statistically significant difference and therefore lends support to the theory that the number of application was lower for this EAC range (and this range covers December through April).

What does it mean for us? Even if VSC continues at the low pace, the next months should be over and done with more quickly.

;)
 
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06 <4000 16%
06 means on 6 days (notice days) the total no. of applications received were less than 4000

28 >4500 76%
On 28 days - applications were received greater than 4500

As mentioned in the original post these are ALL the applications rcvd not just I-485.
 
i understand all you say

but my question is, without knowing how many 485 cases are there in your sample, how do you say that there are lesser cases in december and later months?

Another contributing factor to consider in the decline in the number of cases is there is virtually no H-1 and other similar non-immigrant visa sponsoring in the months where there's a decline of number of cases.
 
Awaiting approval, I think you could look at it two ways...

1) The share of I-485 cases versus all other applications would be more or less the same. But of course there is some variance, but I cannot imagine that this variance will be very big, may be 5 percentage points.

2) It doesn't matter so much what the individual applications are about - less applications will mean less work, no matter if I-485, I-130, I-140, etc...

Do you see my point :confused:
 
To clarify a few points...

First, Helge is right. No mater what percentage of 485 is on any particular day, fewer number of total cases means less workload for BCIS.

Second, in my previous posts, http://boards.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?postid=484304#post484304
and
http://boards.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?postid=490442#post490442
I gave the following info:

ND 12/12/02 EAC-02-061 ¨C info posted by a member on this board:
1408 out of 5936 (or 23.7%) are I-485 cases
ND 12/6/02 EAC-02-056 53xxx only - info posted by a member on this board:
270 of the 1000 sampled (or 27%) are I-485 cases
ND 4/17/02 (EAC-02-164) ¨C I checked:
507 out of 3354 (or 15.1%) are I-485 cases

I don't want to jump to conclusion because only three NDs info is available. I just try to provide accurate data. You can interpret the data whatever way you wish.

Have a nice LONG memorial weekend. Yes, memorial weekend means fewer approvals to be seen today, I guess.
 
Well ...Bravo dear friends ...the time, energy and insightful analysis that goes into figuring how close one is to a green card is amazing!! This is the reason why America still is a sought after location....people like you make (and keeps) this country great!

Long live Immigration!! :)
 
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