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Visa Bulletin For May 2015

EURO2014 said:
With your EU41M number you won't need to bet the farm on EU as a region becoming current, which remains rather unlikely. Yet you sure stand a rather fair chance individually this year - presuming they won't halt EU artificially, based on reaching a defined regional limit.
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What do you mean by "presuming they won't halt EU artificially, based on reaching a defined regional limit"? is not the EU limit for 2015 around 19.5 thousand?
 
Hey simon,
I am lottery winner with as2015...67xx from Iran
1-Is it possible to decrease visas from Asia to increase other areas (Eu,Af,..) and make 50000 for 2015 ? Or thay have to give visas around 9000 for Asia like perivious years? As I found from your 1th of april datas Asia maximum gets 5390 visa (2967+950+1473) until now and around 4000 visas left, Am I right?
2- Is clearance time for Iranians in last months shorter and do you know the average waiting time on that period based on peivious years datas?
3- Finally,how many percent do you think a chance to get visa for me with clearance ?
Thanks alot.
 
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Hi guys,

@Britsimon can you give me some info on the oceania region? Is there a chance of it going current? I've got 14xx, a number which has historically got an interview every year but I'm starting to worry as its behind what it was last year, which was the only year it didn't go current. Apologies if youve covered this already, I did check this thread but haven't scrolled the others yet.

Thank you!
 
Candeu said:
What do you mean by "presuming they won't halt EU artificially, based on reaching a defined regional limit"? is not the EU limit for 2015 around 19.5 thousand?
Click to expand...

At this stage of the game for the EU region, I'd try to identify potential impediments for the three VB's remaining - July, August & September. As I see it, these could possibly result from two specific areas of concern: a) hard Regional Limit and b) Regional Diversity Objective.
Ad a): the regional limit for EU is not published, yet we confirmed in DV 2014 that it does exist. You only know once it has hit you, as occurred in September of last year, when the number remained at 40,150, as previously announced for August. The 19.5K number you referred to is simply an internal calculation from this forum, not an official number.
Ad b) Beyond giving out 50+K DV Visa/Year KCC has to maintain Regional Diversity as key objective, as defined by law. With the other two large DV regions, Africa and Asia, in serious trouble this year (due to different reasons, yet this is another subject altogether), KCC has to ensure that EU won't eat the cake by its own and, doing so, messes up diversity targets between the DV regions, set in advance. This is separate from the above-mentioned pre-set hard limit - here the current lack of progress in other regions would impact Europe, i.e. Africa and Asia will have to be given the chance to catch up.

Therefore, in terms of potential impediments for EU participants with high CN's: there certainly is a possible scenario in which Europe will progress by approx. 2,000 - 4,000 for each of the coming two VB's, July and August, and then may remain at this same number for September, meaning that no additional interviews may be scheduled at EU US consulates during that final month of the DV 2015 year. Makes sense?
 
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EURO2014 said:
At this stage of the game for the EU region, I'd try to identify potential impediments for the three VB's remaining - July, August & September. As I see it, these could possibly result from two specific areas of concern: a) hard Regional Limit and b) Regional Diversity Objective.
Ad a): the regional limit for EU is not published, yet we confirmed in DV 2014 that it does exist. You only know once it has hit you, as occurred in September of last year, when the number remained at 40,150, as previously announced for August. The 19.5K number you referred to is simply an internal calculation from this forum, not an official number.
Ad b) Beyond giving out 50+K DV Visa/Year KCC has to maintain Regional Diversity as key objective, as defined by law. With the other two large DV regions, Africa and Asia, in serious trouble this year (due to different reasons, yet this is another subject altogether), KCC has to ensure that EU won't eat the cake by its own and, doing so, messes up diversity targets between the DV regions, set in advance. This is separate from the above-mentioned pre-set hard limit - here the current lack of progress in other regions would impact Europe, i.e. Africa and Asia will have to be given the chance to catch up.

Therefore, in terms of potential impediments for EU participants with high CN's: there certainly is a possible scenario in which Europe will progress by approx. 2,000 - 4,000 for each of the coming two VB's, July and August, and then may remain at this same number for September, meaning that no additional interviews may be scheduled at EU US consulates during that final month of the DV 2015 year. Makes sense?
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I think Europe will hit CURRENT on September...
 
brunash82 said:
Thanks mate, it will be CURRENT on september, they will not allow again the same scenario as last year.
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From KCC perspective DV 2014 was a highly successful year - key objectives, as defined by US law, effectively completed...
 
Candeu said:
According to Simon the backlog has almost been cleared. So I guess the matter is not the slow processing, but rather low response rate. Do you agree Simon?
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Up to now, and including this VB, the interview slots have been combining from backlog cases. I think that will reduce somewhat (varied by region) for the next VB, and pretty much disappear by the end.

The response rate up to now has looked lower up to now, partially because of the backlog cases (I.e. We can't tell a late submission from a non response until the last CEAC file). But, a low response rate would speed up VB movement and increase the final cutoff above what we had previously imagined. For EU, a low response rate could see us well into the 40 - 45 range, perhaps even current (EU being the least over selected region).

So, I have to say, Sloner is about right in what he said. I think they will try to get to 40 by August. But when he says not more than 42xxx, that us only about 1200 selectees less than current - and our guessing can't be so precise until the end (because the backlog is hiding the final response rate).

Even a broken clock is right twice a day...
 
Shahram9140 said:
Hey simon,
I am lottery winner with as2015...67xx from Iran
1-Is it possible to decrease visas from Asia to increase other areas (Eu,Af,..) and make 50000 for 2015 ? Or thay have to give visas around 9000 for Asia like perivious years? As I found from your 1th of april datas Asia maximum gets 5390 visa (2967+950+1473) until now and around 4000 visas left, Am I right?
2- Is clearance time for Iranians in last months shorter and do you know the average waiting time on that period based on peivious years datas?
3- Finally,how many percent do you think a chance to get visa for me with clearance ?
Thanks alot.
Click to expand...

1. The quotas are the quotas, and they will manage the reguions in the VB to achieve the right split (as close as they can). Asia quota is around 8500. On the Ceac data, just take the issued numbers for now.

2 there are credible reports of Iranian AP being faster. I am yet to confirm that with Ceac data.

3. You will be interviewed, for sure. Not certain about July (it is possible) but August otherwise. That gives you a fighting chance, even with AP.
 
kellie_jane said:
Hi guys,

@Britsimon can you give me some info on the oceania region? Is there a chance of it going current? I've got 14xx, a number which has historically got an interview every year but I'm starting to worry as its behind what it was last year, which was the only year it didn't go current. Apologies if youve covered this already, I did check this thread but haven't scrolled the others yet.

Thank you!
Click to expand...

Current, NO - but your number should squeeze in...
 
EURO2014 said:
At this stage of the game for the EU region, I'd try to identify potential impediments for the three VB's remaining - July, August & September. As I see it, these could possibly result from two specific areas of concern: a) hard Regional Limit and b) Regional Diversity Objective.
Ad a): the regional limit for EU is not published, yet we confirmed in DV 2014 that it does exist. You only know once it has hit you, as occurred in September of last year, when the number remained at 40,150, as previously announced for August. The 19.5K number you referred to is simply an internal calculation from this forum, not an official number.
Ad b) Beyond giving out 50+K DV Visa/Year KCC has to maintain Regional Diversity as key objective, as defined by law. With the other two large DV regions, Africa and Asia, in serious trouble this year (due to different reasons, yet this is another subject altogether), KCC has to ensure that EU won't eat the cake by its own and, doing so, messes up diversity targets between the DV regions, set in advance. This is separate from the above-mentioned pre-set hard limit - here the current lack of progress in other regions would impact Europe, i.e. Africa and Asia will have to be given the chance to catch up.

Therefore, in terms of potential impediments for EU participants with high CN's: there certainly is a possible scenario in which Europe will progress by approx. 2,000 - 4,000 for each of the coming two VB's, July and August, and then may remain at this same number for September, meaning that no additional interviews may be scheduled at EU US consulates during that final month of the DV 2015 year. Makes sense?
Click to expand...

That possible scenario is more or less a certainty.
 
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