Britsimon
Super Moderator
No.
Visa Bulletin For May 2015
- Thread starter jas2200
- Start date
No.
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Don't worry, be happy - no need to argue about a high increase, I guess. Not so good for folks around the world, though....
Britsimon
Super Moderator
EU are doing rather nicely huh!
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Just happy for some of the folks with high numbers who came close to giving up last month... Next VB may be a different story, though, who knows...
I have a question about Egypt, Is it possible that If Egypt don't have many numbers in the 30000-35000 area and so it may become current or it's not how it calculated?
I ask for that because I never encounter Egypt number more than 29000 and by this Bulletin 24675 they still have three Bulletins.
I ask for that because I never encounter Egypt number more than 29000 and by this Bulletin 24675 they still have three Bulletins.
jas2200
Member
@Britsimon just reading your May prediction and SA is definitely a surprise. I am hoping the pick up the pace in June bulletin to end around the same numbers as last year in September
I hope you are right mate, i am CN41xxx so i really hope for Current for Europe this year
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
With your EU41M number you won't need to bet the farm on EU as a region becoming current, which remains rather unlikely. Yet you sure stand a rather fair chance individually this year - presuming they won't halt EU artificially, based on reaching a defined regional limit.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Egypt cuts off at 30XXX - so numbers over 29XXX are rare. The final cutoff for Egypt will probably be around 28500 ish.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
The slow VB for Asia is due to the dense CN for Nepal, meaning they need smaller increment to achieve the same number of visa. In fact issuance for Nepal is ahead of last year by quite a bit.
The question now becomes both ROA and Iran are behind compared to last year, Iran will exhaust most of their cases by 86-88xx and Nepal would have maxed out by then.
So here's some reverse thinking, if they want to peak in Aug like last year, they would need to call high 7xxx for Nepal in Aug, probably 88xx for Iran (to be mixed with ROA) and high 11xxx to low 12xxx for ROA. In this case, Iran still got a chance to finish AP in Sept and ROA will be a "plug" for any unused visa.
If the big jump happens in Sept, KCC would have no time to adjust.
The above logic is based on no influx of late submission cases coming out of nowhere, Iranian cases not exceeding 2500 visas and 83xx is the target KCC is aiming for.
Thoughts?
The question now becomes both ROA and Iran are behind compared to last year, Iran will exhaust most of their cases by 86-88xx and Nepal would have maxed out by then.
So here's some reverse thinking, if they want to peak in Aug like last year, they would need to call high 7xxx for Nepal in Aug, probably 88xx for Iran (to be mixed with ROA) and high 11xxx to low 12xxx for ROA. In this case, Iran still got a chance to finish AP in Sept and ROA will be a "plug" for any unused visa.
If the big jump happens in Sept, KCC would have no time to adjust.
The above logic is based on no influx of late submission cases coming out of nowhere, Iranian cases not exceeding 2500 visas and 83xx is the target KCC is aiming for.
Thoughts?
Last edited:
Anxiety2015
Active Member
I have no doubt you will get an interview.
However, whether you will be put on AP and more importantly when you will clear AP is the question.
Catracha74
New Member
Hey Simon, do you still believe that those selectees with numbers upward SA1600 are still safe? Do those with numbers between SA1600 and 1650 have a chance?
Thanks.
Thanks.
siliconeslinger
Member
Asia as has always been expected... Disappointing, 3 vbs left and assuming they'll increase by 500 per month as usual
6500
7000
7500
6500
7000
7500
Sounds about right! Numbers were good for some but beyond underwhelming for many more. It's almost as if KCC works for Nepal/Nepalese embassy with these paltry increases since the processing rate for that particular embassy largely determines VB pace for Asia. I'm not saying they designed the lottery with this in mind but it's the situation Asia finds itself in. They need to rethink to maybe drop the 7% max quota allocated to any single country to maybe 5% (that might speed up processing significantly and give ROA and higher CNs a fighting chance) or maybe start from the highest numbers next time, I'm kind of kidding on this one because knowing my DV luck, I'll probably draw a low CN then.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Hard to guess what will happen in SA....
Britsimon
Super Moderator
You don't listen at all do you??
According to Simon the backlog has almost been cleared. So I guess the matter is not the slow processing, but rather low response rate. Do you agree Simon?