-do you think both final VBs will show an increase for EU?
-Is my understanding correct the AOS cases in 2014 for EU amounted to 18904-18237=667, which is 3.528%? and is this percent expected to be similar in 2015 too?
Visa Bulletin for June 2015
- Thread starter Tom Jones
- Start date
-Is my understanding correct the AOS cases in 2014 for EU amounted to 18904-18237=667, which is 3.528%? and is this percent expected to be similar in 2015 too?
U2 countries have a AoS split close to zero. So the regional AoS split factor varies over the years with the U2 portion in the region. I work with the AoS split factor for the rest of Europe which is about 0.955. I don't have the numbers at hand so can't tell right now how constant that number is.
Annanz
Member
Oh sorry. Meant to say its EU Region. Thnks for reply
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
You'll have to wait till July.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I had another look at DV-2014. The table shows the outcome on the left and the quotas according to the law. I referenced all numbers to EU region resulting in a global quota target of 53,721 visas -- not 53,900 as I remembered.
EU, AS and SA are perfectly aligned, OC seems a little short while AF region is a complete miss.
So can quota considerations slow down Europe? Well I guess yes. Reading the law there is a lot of talk about quotas and even in the event that a region's selectees pool gets exhausted early the talk is about quota and never about numbers of issued visas -- apart from the 55k cap (and NACARA). So it seems to me perfectly legit to issue only 49,000 visas but having the quotas set right. Therefore I consider May and July as necessary one-off corrections to the (relative) quotas to get the regions better lined up before year's closing.
I was happy to see that the Visa Office have learnt their lesson from DV-2014 and are reacting early on AF's lag. Looking now at the May 15 extract and seeing (again) only 800 visas issued to AF region makes me feel less optimistic. So far no one at the VO seems to be aware of the no show issue. The hilariously low number of selectees in DV-2016 is striking proof of this. EU region has nothing to fear from backlog cases, they were starting to level off a month ago (yet to be confirmed this month) and DV-2015 could be a wonderful year for Europe -- even for high case numbers. My only concern is the poor performance in AF region. I still hope for a hefty increase of the AF cut-off in August (and September).
Good thoughts. I agree that the lack of recognition for AF no shows is startling. Obviously they have to set VB numbers 2 months ahead of getting the data but they really should have figured this out by now. I went slightly optimistic for AF in my prediction last month (assuming 1800 interviews) but I suspect they shot under even that unless backlog took substantially more than I thought. We still cannot see the in transit cases in CEAC to confirm this. Thanks KCC IT dept!
I can't help having a nagging feeling that you are being a tad optimistic on EU, but again, without the in Transit update I don't really know why they pulled back so much. It could be slowing the pace (which was a bit overheated), but it could also be a looming brick wall.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I haven't seem them yet...
what do you mean by a a looming brick wall for EU? Do you mean reducing quota? if so, by how much?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
It may not be a reducing of quota. It could be a couple of things.
There may be a situation where a region is running "hot" against a monthly target. For various reasons it would make sense to not allow a region to burn out too fast. So - the small jump for May interviews and July interviews may be an attempt to control that and make sure they don't run out of visas too soon.
However, it could also be that for whatever reason the quota is related to other regions. Essentially what DV4Roger was talking about earlier. So - we can say the quota is 37 point something percent - but 37% of what? 37% of a number which won't be met unless AF pulls up its socks? Or 37% of 50000? Or 37% of a number between 50 and 55 that we don't really know? DV4Roger is better on option 3 of those options. Option 1 means that when the dust has settled EU could be higher than the 37 point something quota should have allowed - and that could be the reason for a brick wall.
1) Do you mean option 1 is just slowing down the pace, which essentially does not affect on final quota and cut off.
2) option 2 (the worst option for EU) is 37% of 50000 for EU quota.
3) option 3 (DV4Roger 's option) is 37% of between 50000-55000 for EU quota.
Please correct me if I am wrong.
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Right. Certainly another reason to consider the possibility that AF (and to some extend ROA & SA) will be assigned September for catching up, to the detriment of EU - as happened, in fact, last year...
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I would be extremely happy with a replay for Europe of DV-2014. The region simply hit a record high number of visas up to August – a number good for a global total of 53,700 visas! I wouldn't call that "to the detriment".
Britsimon
Super Moderator
OK - so if AF were to undershoot, EU would have to be pulled back. Is that what you are saying? The thing is, that isn't what happened last year. IN SEptember EU was already limited, whilst AF was hammering along. The final number in EU only makes sense because of a really busy September for AF. Wouldn't you agree?
Everything that KCC do is predictive. So - we don't have to have hit a number for KCC to apply the brakes - they may have to do that proactively based on assumptions.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Exactly - I think you and Euro may be looking at things differently.
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Yes, I understand of course, yet this is right where our predictions noticeably differ, as far as final EU DV-2015 outcome is concerned. Yet, this is o.k., I certainly don't have any problem whatsoever with a deviating outlook...
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Great minds think alike, Britsimon, we seem to have posted in parallel