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Visa Bulletin for June 2015

Here is the most oddball prediction ever. Next month AF current. Kcc cannot handle the backlog and will take AF current allocating interviews to cases that have already been processed. Expect a high refusal rate to balance the leap.
 
brunash82 said:
Don't worry you will get your interview, but all 40k+ CN's will not, just like last year, thank you very much KCC!
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what number r u?

they only used 579 CN numbers to increase from May to June... so you never know...I have lost hope now..I am thinking of other plans on how to move to USA..so it will not be easy
..it is really bad ..they just fool people ..they should extract only the necessary amount , not to give hope and then to cut it off
 
adela15 said:
what number r u?

they only used 579 CN numbers to increase from May to June... so you never know...I have lost hope now..I am thinking of other plans on how to move to USA..so it will not be easy
..it is really bad ..they just fool people ..they should extract only the necessary amount , not to give hope and then to cut it off
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My number is 418xx so I lost my hope ....
 
siliconeslinger said:
I did, so if they still increase the nepal cn then how is the roa supposed to get vb jumps? 2 vbs left and they still won't stop nepal

Last year they didn't increase nepal cn once it got limited, why would they increase it this year? Like the roa progression isn't slow enough...
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All along you have been wittering on about how Nepal should have its own region. The country limit on Nepal achieves that effect. They will not be stopped until they hit (or are predicted to hit) the max. BUT by putting them on their own number, ROA can have whatever progress is possible according to their numbers.

So - Nepal will max at 3500 (less in CEAC due to AoS). That leaves 8500 (again less adjusted for AoS). So - ROA and Iran are sharing the remaining 5000. Iran are concentrated in the first 8200, but Iranian AP cases will mean they cannot max like Nepal. So - ROA will get more or less of the 5000 depending on Iranian AP cases. If Iranian AP is slow, Iran may only get ~2200. If Iranian AP is faster they could get around 3000. That difference is what determines how high the AS number goes....
 
guestgulkan said:
Hi @Britsimon - on a related topic, for marketing purposes I think your twitter profile needs an update. ie Anthony Andrews avatar, a description that would attract DV entrants, and pointer to your webpage. No one wants to follow someone with an egg avatar.
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I barely use Twitter other than my blog posting there automatically - but I will see if I can un egg it.
 
Britsimon said:
All along you have been wittering on about how Nepal should have its own region. The country limit on Nepal achieves that effect. They will not be stopped until they hit (or are predicted to hit) the max. BUT by putting them on their own number, ROA can have whatever progress is possible according to their numbers.

So - Nepal will max at 3500 (less in CEAC due to AoS). That leaves 8500 (again less adjusted for AoS). So - ROA and Iran are sharing the remaining 5000. Iran are concentrated in the first 8200, but Iranian AP cases will mean they cannot max like Nepal. So - ROA will get more or less of the 5000 depending on Iranian AP cases. If Iranian AP is slow, Iran may only get ~2200. If Iranian AP is faster they could get around 3000. That difference is what determines how high the AS number goes....
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Simon, will Asia also yield ~500 visas in July with the current cutoffs? Also any chance still for AS10,8XX?
Thanks!
 
FSW2015 said:
Simon, will Asia also yield ~500 visas in July with the current cutoffs? Also any chance still for AS10,8XX?
Thanks!
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KCC have chose the strategy that they believe will meet the pace they need to hit to give out the visas by the end. So the answer to your first question is - "they think so".

For the second question on the number itself - it goes back to my earlier post - Iran AP. If Iran secures 3000+ visas then 108XX looks risky. At 2200 it looks safe. Since all the Iranian cases have lower numbers - it depends on them. I am having a hellish couple of weeks at work and tons of BritSimon queries. Those things is what is holding me back from doing what I need to do to understand how fast Iranian APs are going now....
 
Britsimon said:
KCC have chose the strategy that they believe will meet the pace they need to hit to give out the visas by the end. So the answer to your first question is - "they think so".

For the second question on the number itself - it goes back to my earlier post - Iran AP. If Iran secures 3000+ visas then 108XX looks risky. At 2200 it looks safe. Since all the Iranian cases have lower numbers - it depends on them. I am having a hellish couple of weeks at work and tons of BritSimon queries. Those things is what is holding me back from doing what I need to do to understand how fast Iranian APs are going now....
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Thank you so much Simon. And I'm gonna take this chance to thank you again for all your efforts and all the time you're dedicating to those who ask you for help. Honestly I don't know how you manage to find time to scratch your head! I believe I speak for everyone here when I say that we are more than grateful!
 
FSW2015 said:
Thank you so much Simon. And I'm gonna take this chance to thank you again for all your efforts and all the time you're dedicating to those who ask you for help. Honestly I don't know how you manage to find time to scratch your head! I believe I speak for everyone here when I say that we are more than grateful!
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Thanks for the thanks!!!
 
I remember I ve seen somewhere some statistics by month - how many cases at NVC, how many interviews from backlog, how many from current numbers- could anyone re-send me the link? ..i forgot where it is - either on this site or on britsimon site..thanks
 
adela15 said:
I remember I ve seen somewhere some statistics by month - how many cases at NVC, how many interviews from backlog, how many from current numbers- could anyone re-send me the link? ..i forgot where it is - either on this site or on britsimon site..thanks
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I think you are talking about my monthly post 2NL prediction method - which I have explained in the last few months. THe last one is here:-

http://britsimonsays.com/june-2nl-analysis-plus-predictions/
 
Pedro Roques said:
I feel exactly the same. My family and I have the case number 15XX and we are totally upset and depressed. Hoping we will not have any problems in the future having filled the DS-260.
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Hello Pedro! I'm from Venezuela and last year I was selected but didn't make to the interview (high CN). My tourist visa expired last year too, and I didn't renew it at the moment because I was in the process to get the GC. Obviously, after my big fail I also needed to renew my tourist visa and was expecting a few problems.
First, I had to put in the form that I did have immigration attempt. Then the CO interviewed me... it was clear that he needed to know if I was a risk for illegal immigration. Finally I told him: "Do I want to live in USA??? OF COURSE I do!!! But legally... I won't live there with the "migra" chasing me. If I wanted to do it in a non-legal way, I would have been there already. And I tell you, I did participate again in the lottery." He told me I was very sincere and renewed my tourist visa for 10 years again.
So... I was scared, but it worked out.
 
veronice said:
Hello Pedro! I'm from Venezuela and last year I was selected but didn't make to the interview (high CN). My tourist visa expired last year too, and I didn't renew it at the moment because I was in the process to get the GC. Obviously, after my big fail I also needed to renew my tourist visa and was expecting a few problems.
First, I had to put in the form that I did have immigration attempt. Then the CO interviewed me... it was clear that he needed to know if I was a risk for illegal immigration. Finally I told him: "Do I want to live in USA??? OF COURSE I do!!! But legally... I won't live there with the "migra" chasing me. If I wanted to do it in a non-legal way, I would have been there already. And I tell you, I did participate again in the lottery." He told me I was very sincere and renewed my tourist visa for 10 years again.
So... I was scared, but it worked out.
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Hi Veronice,
Nice to see you on here! Happy you got your visa renewed! So, you are coming to visit simon and me when...? ;)
 
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