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Visa Bulletin for December 2015

Egypt has now been freed to move with AFRICA pace Mr britsimon can enlight me on this and do you think Ethiopia will also be left in the coming vbs
 
What if this backlog continues till end of year?? It means once again AF will still have under issued. With this pace am wondering if it will get to 40k:(
 
Guys would you RELAX!

We are 4 months into a 12 month process. We are pretty much exactly where we should be for AF region. The earl,y fast pace confused people - but I had explained it would slow down exactly like this.

Read this link to understand the backlog effect. Once you have understand that it should be obvious that we will see more normal increases as we move through the months.
http://britsimonsays.com/backlog-effect-on-visa-bulletin-explained/
 
DV2016-winner-Tunisia said:
Hi Brit, the problem is that this never happened before. These are the historical data (for africa) you published, and it looks to be the first time when they update the cutoff numbers with only 1000 ! it is looking strange for me
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Again. Relax. If you spend about 30 seconds looking at last year you will see this isn't unusual - but what we are talking about is a backlog created by the DS260 submission which was ONLY introduced last year - so there isn't a lot of history.

Take a look another way. If you READ my post about backlog you will understand that the backlog effect will cause a high early number followed by slow progress as the backlog provides most of the interviews. So - if you look at my linear projection for AF progress my numbers versus reality show exactly what the theory explains.

October
My number - 5000
VB - 9100

November
My number - 9000
VB - 13000

December
My number - 13000
VB - 14500

January
My number - 17000
VB - 15500
 
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but still it seems these guys are also not taking inti consideration what made them fall short last time not even reaching regional quotas. so isn't it really backlog cases that made them waste time and waking up at a late time
 
jamiechabs said:
so this is how things gonna run cos I see in your chat numbers ending at 45000. some how shocking
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You should also read the notes. I stopped at August too - meaning I expect them to get to around 45000 by August (this is rough guesswork of course).
 
jamiechabs said:
but still it seems these guys are also not taking inti consideration what made them fall short last time not even reaching regional quotas. so isn't it really backlog cases that made them waste time and waking up at a late time
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What led to the shortfall on AF region was the no show rate. The problem with no shows is that KCC don';t really have a way to predict which people will not show up for their interviews, and the interview slot needs to be held for the person in case they turn up. That is the fault of AF selectees, not KCC. The only blame we could put to KCC is failing to be tougher in reclaiming the no show slots back from the embassies in if the embassies were diligent in informing KCC. BUT that would be a heavy handed, ruthless approach.
 
Britsimon said:
What led to the shortfall on AF region was the no show rate. The problem with no shows is that KCC don';t really have a way to predict which people will not show up for their interviews, and the interview slot needs to be held for the person in case they turn up. That is the fault of AF selectees, not KCC. The only blame we could put to KCC is failing to be tougher in reclaiming the no show slots back from the embassies in if the embassies were diligent in informing KCC. BUT that would be a heavy handed, ruthless approach.
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Brit, my CN is AF20XXX, when do you think it will become current ?
 
Hello Britsimon,
I have been selected my CN is AF 13xxx and my interview is scheduled in mid of January in the US Embassy in Riyadh as I am working there, my question is about the required documents for the interview shall i take it with me to the interview or i should sent it to the embassy by FedEx.
thank you for your help.
 
Dear Simon, do you think you can make any prediction for AS numbers in the upcoming bulletin? I am anxious to submit my package.
 
kchemist said:
Dear Simon, do you think you can make any prediction for AS numbers in the upcoming bulletin? I am anxious to submit my package.
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I have no data to work on, so without that data I would just be guessing. Your guess, therefore, is as good as mine.
 
Ahmed Elagouz said:
Hello Britsimon,
I have been selected my CN is AF 13xxx and my interview is scheduled in mid of January in the US Embassy in Riyadh as I am working there, my question is about the required documents for the interview shall i take it with me to the interview or i should sent it to the embassy by FedEx.
thank you for your help.
Click to expand...

You take it to the interview unless you are told otherwise by the embassy prior to the interview.

Check the link below and you will see several interview experiences from Riyadh. (CTRL-F to search for city)
http://britsimonsays.com/interview-experience-stories/
 
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