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Visa Bulletin For August 2015

Britsimon said:
It is bizarre, although it doesn't mean they won't have interviews.... there could be backlog cases and postponed cases.

I think they could be expecting Iranian AP cases to clear - or at least giving them the benefit of the doubt if they do clear....
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Granted that there may be some back log etc., but not to have any new case? Have you seen that with Asia before? I understood that even if Iran was to go to maximum allowed, there would still be some visas for RoA. It's hard to believe that 7,650 cases have generated enough visas to fill up Asia quota. Not saying impossible, just that mathematically doesn't stack up given your own holes theory. I would have expected at least a few hundred new cases, just to be in line with previous months this year.
 
Also, despite the usual "AP is AP regardless of your visa type" stuff, from past experience it has seemed they do manage to speed up AP processing near fiscal year end. Just possible the slight thaw in relations has helped the Iranians...? Or maybe it's just in line with normal for them, I seem to recall from past years they don't do new Iranian interviews in September usually but spend the month issuing to those cleared off AP.

All we need to hope for now is that there isn't another one of those dreaded notices later in September announcing a filled country quota for anyone.
 
Martin9 said:
Granted that there may be some back log etc., but not to have any new case? Have you seen that with Asia before? I understood that even if Iran was to go to maximum allowed, there would still be some visas for RoA. It's hard to believe that 7,650 cases have generated enough visas to fill up Asia quota. Not saying impossible, just that mathematically doesn't stack up given your own holes theory. I would have expected at least a few hundred new cases, just to be in line with previous months this year.
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I think it's possible the issues earlier this year created more of a backlog than people realized.

Regardless, apart from EU this is pretty much a disaster for all other regions.
 
Martin9 said:
Granted that there may be some back log etc., but not to have any new case? Have you seen that with Asia before? I understood that even if Iran was to go to maximum allowed, there would still be some visas for RoA. It's hard to believe that 7,650 cases have generated enough visas to fill up Asia quota. Not saying impossible, just that mathematically doesn't stack up given your own holes theory. I would have expected at least a few hundred new cases, just to be in line with previous months this year.
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Yeah agreed. The difference must be them holding the door open for Iranian AP cases.

So - lets say (round numbers) that Nepal takes 3500, and let's assume KCC are leaving room for about 3000 to 3500 Iranians - that doesn't leave many for ROA - and as of June 30 ROA already had 831 issued plus a stack of ready and AP cases.

So - I have been assuming 2400 to 3000 max for Iran, but if they are allowing more Iranian AP cases to finish, that is a huge impact.

7150 for Nepal wasn't a surprise...
 
SusieQQQ said:
I think it's possible the issues earlier this year created more of a backlog than people realized.

Regardless, apart from EU this is pretty much a disaster for all other regions.
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I think OC did better than we expected - but of course many OCers still lost out.
 
OC had a long tail so there will be disappointed OCers out there. They would have known they weren't going current but it's still a hard pill.

I hope the lower number of selectees in 2016 will mean less of a tail and less disappointment.
 
Hi Brit,

How do you tentatively explain DV2015 dramatic cut off in Asia COMPARING to dv2014 - where more entrants were selected,overall, and the amount of Iranian and Nepalese selelctees is roughly the same?

It demolishes my hope, as a ROA 2016 winner (CN11XXX), correct me if I'm wrong - but unless a significant change occurred (like the removal of Bangladesh) DV would turn to a play accessible for exclusive populations in Asia merely , as once being selected - one automatically play another game - the case number :(
 
Well, what a bumpy ride, and it's come to an end!
Looking back 14 months ago, I never thought my CN will never become current. Back then, it appeared it was only a matter of time, then the sad truth started loom in the horizon, and that allowed me to make peace with it over the last few months.
Nevertheless, I can never say "I wish I was never selected", sure it hurts a lot to miss out like that, but the hope that I've been living really motivated me to keep going on, and reminded me to focus on the positive aspects of my life in a war-torn country. After all, how many people get to win a lottery? I'll forever be grateful.

Enough with the poetry, there are some well-deserved thanks that need to be offered at the end of this journey:
- First and foremost, to the amazing mods of this forum: @Britsimon , I'm forever in your debt, and I'm not the only one, you've helped hundreds get their visas at the expense of your personal time, and @Sm1smom , our loving mom, and AoS expert, thank you from the bottom of my heart!
- Our wonderful, and one-of-a-kind, @SusieQQQ , ever ready to help.
- Our dear experts whose great knowledge helped a lot of people: @EURO2014 , @DV4ROGER , @Martin9 , and @vladek15425 , among others.
- My fellow friends with whom I shared the boat of high RoA CN: @Anxiety2015 , @Sensei-san , @NaraLB , @Idea Mani , and @Smurfette . I'm going to miss our group chat. Wish you the best guys, whatever you do!
- My friends who are still under the hated AP, @Nahar333 , and @AFT . I hope you get your visas real soon.
- All members of this great forum whom I had or had not contact with. You helped make this place as great it is.

To all who got their visas: Congrats, enjoy the US. To all who became current: Good luck in your interviews. And to those, like me (and our controversial friend @siliconeslinger ), who missed out: Life doesn't stop here, it was indeed a great opportunity, but more and hopefully better ones are bound to come our way.
I'm sorry if I have forgotten anyone, you're all in my mind. I'm going to be taking a break from all DV-related stuff for a while, and will be preparing for my next challenge: graduating from med school and getting a new NIV. I wish you all the best of luck!
I feel truly previledged to have lived this experience!

Oh yeah, and DV-2017, here I come!! ;) ;)
 
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Britsimon said:
I very much doubt the Iranian military are cooperating by providing background checks on ex military....
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yes, i agree with you! so the explanation that the US is somehow pushing the APs through is not logical........the KCC has no power to make the APs go faster, which makes this last VB absolutely mind boggling.
like i said before, even if Iran maxes out, there still should've been an increase......the quota being lowered is the only "almost logical" explanation.
 
FSW2015 said:
Well, what a bumpy ride, and it's come to an end!
Looking back 14 months ago, I never thought my CN will never become current. Back then, it appeared it was only a matter of time, then the sad truth started loom in the horizon, and that allowed me to make peace with it over the last few months.
Nevertheless, I can never say "I wish I was never selected", sure it hurts a lot to miss out like that, but the hope that I've been living really motivated me to keep going on, and reminded me to focus on the positive aspects of my life in a war-torn country. After all, how many people get to win a lottery? I'll forever be grateful.

Enough with the poetry, there are some well-deserved thanks that need to be offered at the end of this journey:
- First and foremost, to the amazing mods of this forum: @Britsimon , I'm forever in your debt, and I'm not the only one, you've helped hundreds get their visas at the expense of your personal time, and @Sm1smom , our loving mom, and AoS expert, thank you from the bottom of my heart!
- Our wonderful, and one-of-a-kind, @SusieQQQ , ever ready to help.
- Our dear experts whose great knowledge helped a lot of people: @EURO2014 , @DV4ROGER , @Martin9 , and @vladek15425 , among others.
- My fellow friends with whom I shared the boat of high RoA CN: @Anxiety2015 , @Sensei-san , @NaraLB , @Idea Mani , and @Smurfette . I'm going to miss our group chat. Wish you the best guys, whatever you do!
- My friends who are still under the hated AP, @Nahar333 , and @AFT . I hope you get your visas real soon.
- All members of this great forum whom I had or had not contact with. You helped make this place as great it is.

To all who got their visas: Congrats, enjoy the US. To all who became current: Good luck in your interviews. And to those, like me (and our controversial friend @siliconeslinger ), who missed out: Life doesn't stop here, it was indeed a great opportunity, but more and hopefully better ones are bound to come our way.
I'm sorry if I have forgotten anyone, you're all in my mind. I'm going to be taking a break from all DV-related stuff for a while, and will be preparing for my next challenge: graduating from med school and getting a new NIV. I wish you all the best of luck!
I feel truly previledged to have lived this experience!

Oh yeah, and DV-2017, here I come!! ;) ;)
Click to expand...

Good luck with the studies, and let me know if you come to SF (UCSF is nearby)!

And of course - good luck ikn DV2017. Hopefully that year will be better as they find the new normal....
 
johnelliot344 said:
yes, i agree with you! so the explanation that the US is somehow pushing the APs through is not logical........the KCC has no power to make the APs go faster, which makes this last VB absolutely mind boggling.
like i said before, even if Iran maxes out, there still should've been an increase......the quota being lowered is the only "almost logical" explanation.
Click to expand...
Yes, yet you might want to consider the following: DoS folks being worried about late Iranian AP clearances in September, i.e. at a time when no visa numbers were available any longer in previous years. What do you do in this case: simply make sure that there will be sufficient visa numbers left in the AS pool until the very end of September... I am not arguing that ROA is getting a fair deal. Europe will follow this trend, based on existing DV rules, very shortly with extremely high participation rates from a select number of countries, i.e. Ukraine, Greece et al...
 
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johnelliot344 said:
yes, i agree with you! so the explanation that the US is somehow pushing the APs through is not logical........the KCC has no power to make the APs go faster, which makes this last VB absolutely mind boggling.
like i said before, even if Iran maxes out, there still should've been an increase......the quota being lowered is the only "almost logical" explanation.
Click to expand...

We wsill have to "wait and see" in a couple of months. In DV2013 Iran got a huge number of visas. DV2014 was a huge disaster for Iran - with many people left on AP (people that had paid their DV fees and medicals etc). So - maybe KCC think Iran can return to the DV2013 scenario??? We won't know for sure until we see the final numbers....
 
FSW2015 said:
Well, what a bumpy ride, and it's come to an end!


Oh yeah, and DV-2017, here I come!! ;) ;)
Click to expand...

My dear brother, I feel too bad for you and others who missed this year. This was totally unexpected. Anyway, soon you'll be a great MD as you are a great soul. It was very nice to meet you. Good luck to everyone over 7650 in their lives.
 
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