Britsimon
Super Moderator
I expect at least 900, perhaps even 950 to 1000.
Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2013
- Thread starter Rayme
- Start date
I expect at least 900, perhaps even 950 to 1000.
I hope you're right, Britsimon. I'm sure Emma, Mijoro and others hope you're right too.
In recent years, the cut-off hasn't reached 1000 till April. Do you think it's just a coincidence that for the past three years, the April cut-off has always been exactly 1000?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
My only reason for thinking so is the increase in selectees out of kilter with other regions. I am taking that as a signal that the quota for OC has been increased. If that is incorrect then progress will be more normal. I hadn't realised the 1000 for 3 years thing - I don't think there could be a technical reason for that....
OnTheGo
Registered Users (C)
Probably worthwhile mentioning (for those who were wondering) that FEB VB means you are all guessing the cut off numbers for MARCH 2014 - right?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Correct.
Hi Britsimon, what you expect current number for Feb in Asia?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I think Kayend has explained this well in another thread. So far Iran and Nepal have accounted for 80% of the cases under 3700. That means the rest of Asia have bee held back while Nepal and Iran cases are processed. KCC could easily limit those two countries to slow them down and get a greater number of other Asian cases through. IF they do that the VB could jump to around 6000 plus. If the don't limit Iran and Nepal, progress will again be slow - around 4500 to 4800.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Is there a way we could change the title of this thread to February 2014?
I don't think the title can be edited...
franko
Well-Known Member
I was gonna ask about that earlier today. How come Iran and Nepal account for 80% of selectees up to 14k or whatever the number it was reported (Nepalesse dudes mentioned that most of their CNs are within that range)? Clearly it shows that selection isn't random, right? Diversity visa doesn't seem to be that diverse if they choose which country to draw low CNs from?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Well the thing is Franko it is what happens when some countries have MASSIVE number of entries. Take a look at the link below that shows entries. You will see some countries have enormous numbers of entries - for instance Nigeria in 2013 had 2 million family members out of the total 12 million in the world. Iran had 700k. Nepal had 500k. Japan had just 50k entries.Those numbers are probably higher in 2014. So these high entry countries have an unbelievably high number of entries and in Asia for instance there would be 14 Iranian entries and 10 Nepalese entries for each Japanese entry. So, they would start randomly picking entries and more often than not that would be an entry from Nepal or Iran. They then cut those countries off artificially at around 6000 selectees and continue drawing and simply ignoring any further entries from Nepal or Iran. So - the Iran and Nepal selectees are all concentrated in the first few thousand entries.
Entry numbers here:
http://travel.state.gov/pdf/DV_Applicant_Entrants_by_Country_2007-2013.pdf
Last edited by a moderator:
I believe you are right when you say that they cut off high entry countries at around 6000 selectees, because otherwise KCC will flood with applications from those countries. 6000 selectees should be enough to reach the country quota of 3500 (3850 w/o NACARA).
If they ignore any further entries, but still number all initial entries with a CN number (allocating randomly a CN number to each application, by picking a first entry randomly and allocating #0000001, then a 2nd entry and allocating #0000002, and so on and so on ...), this would mean the high entry countries are creating more holes towards the high CN numbers.
That would be the most logical explanation as to why they increased the max CN number vs last year (for instance EU at mid 30k in DV13, and around 54k in DV14) to a percentage that is way much higher than the 35% increase in the selectee count.
This is good news and bad news for the high CN numbers:
- More holes between winning entries for high CN numbers > more chance for the final cutoff to be high
- More chance for high entry countries to use up visas for each region and exhaust regional quota > less chance for the final cutoff to be high
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Funnily enough the 6000 number will mean several countries do not fill the 7% quota because their success rate is so low. For example Nigeria were limited to 6000 selectees in 2011 and received 2810 visas - well short of the 7%. This year there were limited articifially to 6043 selectees so I think they will get around 2800/2900. As Raevsky has pointed out, there seems to be no basis for this artificial limit in law, arguably they should let Nigeria go on until it hits the 7% limit - but they choose to apply the arbitrary limit. If Nigeria for instance we allowed to continue without limit they would get around 35,000 selectees - and that would just cause too much confusion and heartache....
Regarding your second point, yes your method is possible but I think the number is assigned once they have decided the entry will go through. Otherwise we would be seeing case numbers well over 200k for Africa.
samolaniyi
Registered Users (C)
I totally believe that selectee with high CN in particular region will have equal chances of getting current and special cut off with those with low CN in another region,reason because they are both made current simultaneously in such a way that the low CN will not have more advantage than the high CN.Let's take the OC and AF(NIG) for example.The cut for OC region is 650,while AF region is 21750,then under AF( Nigeria 8700 special cut off).All are presently current.
If you look at it critically,this cut off is designed in such a way that,selectee with low CN will not have much advantage than the high CN.The highest CN in Nigeria according to my findings is 20k,and if someone with CN as high as 21750 is current,while selecttee with low CN 8701 is not yet current.This shows that selectee from OC with low CN of 3000 can be current in september together with high CN of 140000 in other region.Even the person with 20kCN in ngeria can equally have interview in september.If kcc did not introduce cut off for regions,then CN with lower number will surely have more advantage than higher CN.
So, my point is this,nobody high or low is at advantage or disadvantage.If available visa cannot go round,it can affect any selectee either with high or low CN.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I'm not sure what you are saying. If a case number is current - then they are current, whatever their number However, high case numbers are at a disadvantage in general because their whole region is ahead of them and country, region or global quotas could be reached before their number goes current. That is clear - right? So what is your point again - could you say it in a different way?
samolaniyi
Registered Users (C)
I quite agree with you to some extent,this is my point,although people with a very high CN are at disadvantage but its actually the region or country that determines their being current on time.For instance,If i have a case number as low as 2000,i will be happy and say i have a low CN,but ordinarily if I falls in OC region i will still not be current yet going by the present VB.Meanwhile someone with higher CN (21750) is current already.So, it's not about high or low CN sometimes,it's about the region and country you falls in.some country relatively have low CN( OC region,Nigeria with CN 20k maximum) and that is the reason why they have special cut off.While some have hign CN( most of East Africa with CN as high as 140000.)
I hope you get my point.
samolaniyi
Registered Users (C)
If kcc process case according to CN number,the region with lower CN will all get visa after three months of starting the process.E.g OC region.so kCC have to spread it throughout the one year period so that they will not have too much advantage than the higher CN.If they did not introduce the special cut off for nigeria,by now all Nigeria selectee would have completed their interview because Africa is presently at 21750,this number is above Nigerian's highest CN number.Did you get my point now?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I'm not sure you understand that the numbers are within the region. So OC has 2000 case numbers available up to case number 2000 and AF also has 2000 case numbers up to 2000 . Case number 1 for example could exist in all 6 regions.
So, the case numbers are ordered by region and called by region. Case number OC3000 is a high case number whereas AF3000 is a very low number.
I understand about the country cutoffs (I promise I do).
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
remember my friend, oc is a whole region so includes many countries, so to compare to a country like nigeria it will not sound technicaly correct, and to add on skywalker point its all about relativity a CN af2000 is very very low for this region knowing that it get between 20000 and 23000 visas , but a CN oc2000 is quite hight knowing that they get usualy between 800 to 1000 visas...
so to say all the high and low cases are equal is IMO incorrect remember they they also warn the selectees that if the visa quota is exhausted they will be no more interviws scheduled ....
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
we had a talk about with skywalker few days ago ! and my self i concluded that the randomness is just about getting selected for further processing, but the cn they allocate is definitly not random ! since we saw a range of CNs like nepal getting baricated between 8k to 12k ! so yes i agree witgh you it is not random at all!
funny enough you coplaining about it while you signature stated that life is all about randomness lol