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Up coming June month visa bulletin....

E

Elona

Registered Users (C)
Up coming June month visa bulletin.
These two months are decisive in the performance of VB...Impatience ia growing... What do you thing?
 
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My forecast for June:
EU - 35000-36500
Uzb - 17000-17500

AF - 55000-60000
Eg - 45000-50000
Nig - 15500-16000

AS - 8000-9000
SA - 1500-1600
OC - 1450-1550
:rolleyes:
 
Sloner said:
My forecast for June:
EU - 35000-36500
Uzb - 17000-17500

AF - 55000-60000
Eg - 45000-50000
Nig - 15500-16000

AS - 8000-9000
SA - 1500-1600
OC - 1450-1550
:rolleyes:
Click to expand...


As much as I like your predictions Slon'man I think you are being too optimistic.
 
EU : 35000
AF : 50000
Egy: 29000
Nig: 16000
AS : 8000
SA : 1550
OC : 1350
 
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Thanks a lot for your prediction but we can see that your number are pretty high, I have one objection again one number, it's about Egypt, you said that it will be between 45000-50000, please see some arguments:

- On the last CEAC, we can see that the density for each thousand is around 130 persons, as you know the density for the special country is almost the same, if Egypt CNs will go until 45k or even 50k it means that we have 130*50k = 6500, all of them have sent their form to KCC which is not possible since we have only 5757 Egyptian selected and not all of them will send the forms,

- if we check the last year CEAC data (30 sep 2013) we can consider that it's 90% accurate data, we have 3086 persons treated in total (from 5k selected), on the latest CEAC (2nd Mars) we can see that we have already 3052, it means that we are not far from Egypt limit,

Conclusion: I am sure that Egypt cutoff will not exceed 30k (100% sure) and the 25900 special CN that we got on the last VB for Egypt will be the last one, I don't think that we will have another exception of Egypt (80% sure), so the 45-50k for Egypt is out of range.

It's important to know that because it will impact directly the progression of the Africans CN, as you know (I learned that from you) with or without holes it's not the same ....

Sloner said:
My forecast for June:
EU - 35000-36500
Uzb - 17000-17500

AF - 55000-60000
Eg - 45000-50000
Nig - 15500-16000

AS - 8000-9000
SA - 1500-1600
OC - 1450-1550
:rolleyes:
Click to expand...
 
You are welcome bro, let me give you some remarks concerning Africa:
- since all the special countries are below 37900 (100% sure), so for sure we will have more holes, so we will have a big jump for Africa on the next VB and it means also that they are not holding us back anymore :) we are free now ... only Ethiopia have some CNs between 30k and 35k but not more....

-The next CEAC will be determinant, since we will be able to see the density of the CNs between 30k & 37k, I will be able to provide the next VB with exactitude. I can tell you that the density is lower then before, between 0 and 30k the density is around 240 selectees (excluding the special countries of course), I got 37300 on my prediction because I used the 240 number between 30k and 37k, since AF cutoff is 37900 (the official VB), so 600CN more , it means that the density is lower (if with 7.3 * 240 = 1752, so 1752/7.9= 222 persons), so between 30k and 37k we have like 222 persons each 1000.

- since the average density of the Nigerian CN is around 240 per persons each 1000, and taking in account that we have 200 less Nigerian selectees in total comparing to last year, so the max people who sent forms will be around 5000, so 5000/240 = 20.83
20.83 * 1000 = 20 830, it means that max Nigerian CN is around 21000,

vladek15425 said:
Excellent malcom
Any other view about nigeria ? I believe they are the ones holding us back still ?!
Click to expand...
 
I know that but in another hand we know also (specially from DV-2013-CN-STAT-EVOLUTION data file) that the max Egyptian CN is 24K in term of density, of course we have few cases after 24k but not more then 100 which is insignificant, same for Ethyopia (max=35k), so when they publish 50k for me it's insignificant and not worth being said concretely... it proves again that some peoples there are crazy and for them it's normal to select 140k lolololololol

Sloner said:
MalcomX, http://travel.state.gov/content/vis...ulletin/2013/visa-bulletin-for-june-2013.html
Eg 2013 25000--50000
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So basically malcom nigeria will follow untill the end according to your calculations,! If they max out at around 20k+.
Lets just hope that egypt has now realy maxed by now :) so that we can see sloner predictions happening...
 
Yes, we can notice that we have almost same number of selectees and also same repartition (240 each 1000) the problem is that the progression is not the same, 13500 comparing to 17000 of last year is a huge difference, Nigeria will not be current for sure....

So we can forget the story of the special countries as the new CN is 37900, from now on, the calculations will be very easy: 11.5 * 240 = 2760, (2760/220)* 1000 = 12500, it means that the next AF will be around 50500 :) .... I'll be able to readjust this number after the publication of the next CEAC data (the 220 may be diff)
 
MalcomX said:
Yes, we can notice that we have almost same number of selectees and also same repartition (240 each 1000) the problem is that the progression is not the same, 13500 comparing to 17000 of last year is a huge difference, Nigeria will not be current for sure....

So we can forget the story of the special countries as the new CN is 37900, from now on, the calculations will be very easy: 11.5 * 240 = 2760, (2760/220)* 1000 = 12500, it means that the next AF will be around 50500 :) .... I'll be able to readjust this number after the publication of the next CEAC data (the 220 may be diff)
Click to expand...

I think im gonna agree on this. 100% :)
 
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