aws,
It is not prediction by any means. It is based on scans in VSC485, trackers in VSC140 and then finding out options for VSC - EITHER clear EB2 as they cleared EB3 and thereby reduce load for FO memo + avoid controversy of one class getting benefits versus other not getting it OR put more load on concurrent adjudication as per FO memo. Add to it the speed in which EB3 approvals were done. You will also arrive on similar conclusions. Time will tell how much was this rational correct! But looks like perhaps it fits today's scenario.
For NSC, there is no scan in 485 as such. Tracker is there but not a clean one and no one knows how many pending cases are there(sampled from trackers). It will be tough to make much sense out of it. But still here is what I feel:
NSC has to clear up some cases and send it to CSC and that is same for TSC too. But with FPs done - NSC is more likely to pick speed after Oct 01, 2004. Till then it will be more on 485 approvals. Perhaps NSC is pushing too much - it will fall on face as its past has never been very glorious, if it tries to give FO memo treatment to all cases! More so when VSC and CSC are cautious about it. (VSC has cleared goodnumber of EB3 till March 2004 it seems and CSC is doing pilot.)
If you will see - you will note that 485 approvals are coming in all service centers for backlogged cases and looks like once they reach target for 2004, then only they will start with FO memo simultaneousy. VSC is already close to target so it is concentrating on 140 cases.
But finally it is one man's analysis - do not loose your sleep over it.