The Numbers

[Billtoo]

Take the period between year 2000 to 2003...

Total Number of H1b per year = 195,000

Say 70% of the h1b was taken by India = 136,500 per year

Say 10% of the H1b from India never applied for Green card.

Number of GC applicants from India = 122,850 per year

Say 10% of the GC have trouble with labor. And 10% with 140

effective number of guys waiting for 485 adjucation = 100,000 per year

------------------------------------------------------------
Lets assume just one Queue right now -- that is country Quota... assuming EB1 - EB4 - EB5 are in very small numbers.


Country Quota for India : 25,620 per year.
{ Includes Employment based + family based}

Lets say in a year they approve around 2620 family based application ... well the actual figure might be much higher.


Effective country Quota for Employment based : 23,000 per year.

Number of guys from India who will spill over from Year 1 : 100,000 - 23,000 = 77,000

Number of guys from India will spill over from Year 2 : 177,000 -23,000 = 154,000

Number of guys from India will spill over from Year 3 : 254,000 - 23,000 = 231,000

Year 4 : that is year 2003 ... the H1b droped to 65,000 ... But already there is a backlog of 231,000 visa number for India...

With my calculations : Only 23% of the guys who applied will get there 485 approved in a year... Most of us will be doing EAD for years to come...


What do U all think on this ?

 

[voldemarv]

Almost all applicants have dependants. So multiply that number by 2 at least.

 

[Billtoo]

Almost all applicants have dependants. So multiply that number by 2 at least.

Thats a good point...

I think the depedent take up the family category ...

So ---any way they too depleted the over all country Quota --- Lets say they are just 5000 per year ...

For India the figures will be :
The figures -- Just 18,000 Employment based adjucation per year
That will be 14% of the total guys who applied for GC per year.

No wonder they retrogressed to 1998........

 

[can_card]

Other Shocking number calculation for India ..

Only 252 visas may be availble for Indians in each EB catagories for October 2005. Here is my calculation

Worldwide Total Employment based visa per FY year = 140,000 (Sum of EB1 to EB5)

Maximum assured visa for each country (7% of world total) = 9800 in EB category.

Therefore, only 9800 visa number is maximum assured for India per fiscal year. This number is sum of EB1, 2,3,4,5 categories. If other countries not consuming their quota in full maximum, it will be used by mass consuming countries like India, China in the latter part of the FY.

Worldwide EB1 or EB2 or EB3 visas per year: 40,040 (28.6% of 140,000)
Only 27 % of this number is allowed to consume in first quarter (Oct 2005 to Dec 2005)

27% of above 40,040 is : 10,811

Therefore, only 10,811 visas are available at worldwide in EB1or EB2 or EB3 class for first three months of FY 2006.

Applying 7% rule for each country’s limit to 10,811 visas yield only 757 visas for India in EB1, EB2 and EB3 category each.

Therefore, 252 (757/3) visas available for India in EB1 or EB2 or EB3 class for the month of Oct 2005.

This 252 number includes primary applicants, spouse and children for whose AOS (I485) pending in four service centers and CP in India.

 

[Billtoo]

Maximum assured visa for each country (7% of world total) = 9800 in EB category.

A small correction --- The 7% rule per country is sum of both Family + employement based.

Worldwide -- Family --- 226,000 approx
Worldwide -- Employment -- 148,499 approx


So per country == (Family + Emp ) * .07 --- approx 25,620


Am I correct?

 

[can_card]

A small correction --- The 7% rule per country is sum of both Family + employement based.

Worldwide -- Family --- 226,000 approx
Worldwide -- Employment -- 148,499 approx


So per country == (Family + Emp ) * .07 --- approx 25,620


Am I correct?

You are right. 7% rule applies sum of both FB and EB class. India is also a massive consumer of FB class. FB consumers bites their own share (assumption). In my calculation, I just took only the EB catagory alone.

 

[eBhola]

The Quota for Oct - Dec 2005

For Counntries like India and Mainland China --

Total Visa Availiable for next year : 25,620

Visa Number Availible for Oct - Nov : 27% of 25620 => 6920

At the least -- family based guys ==> 1000
At the least -- Employment based dependents ==> 2000


So there might have been just 4000 employment based visa numbers for India or China -- for the period of Oct - Dec 2005.

So we should be seeing around 1000 emp based approvals from each service center ... this Quater...


ALL these 4000 guys might have consumed the visa number for this quater .. so the cut off dates might not move a inche before Dec...

 

[always_in_labor]

Your calculations clearly show that EB3 india/china is a hopeless case.

Many of us will not live long enough to even enjoy the GC.

Most of us will not be able to sustain a job for that long and run to Desi sharks and be exploited to continue remaining in status.

My only question is how was this current all these 5 years ?

Do they wake up every 7 years to reconcile the visa numbers ?

 

[eBhola]

For 75% of the Guys with A# wait time 2 year

My only question is how was this current all these 5 years

Thats a very valid question and thats how it makes this whole thing so very complex....

In the entire journey of GC -- they have build DAM only at 485 stage... They let in only a small number of people to flow over. And people come to 485 stage from all over ... It's good in a way every one can apply.. and now the labor is getting approved faster .. and even the 140 is fast..

The concurrent applications brought in hundreds of thousands A#'s.

The logic of retrogressing India to 01JAN98 ... do you think there are any guy in with PD before 01JAN98 who has not yet applied for 485... There might be handful or none.. So the dates look more to say -- 'U'.

Even if the cut-off date jumps by an year .. every quater... it will take atleast 6 quater to get to the dates where most of guys are waiting..

So for most (guys with A#) nothing till atleast 2 years .... Lucky one should celebrate in a big way.

[Debate : For 75% of the Guys with A# wait time 2 year ... whats Ur take at this. ]