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Super high Oceanic number

K

KJBEE

New Member
Hi,

I’m new so thank you in advance and if I upset anybody with this question I also apologise in advance.

I was successful for the 2024 lottery but have a case number of just over 4900.

Wondering if there is a change in how the numbers will work in the visa bulletin or am I just out of luck with a bad number?

Again, thanks in advance!!!
 
Hi there, Kjbee.
I was in the same boat, worried about the seemingly high OC numbers until I watched Britsimon's video about the topic which put me at ease
 
Hi there, just wondering how you high case number are getting on so far. I’m dv25 with also high case number. Cheers B
 
The June bulletin went to 1,850 with advance notification for July at 2,000.

I don’t see the OC bulletin going current in FY24. There will be two more bulletins released and if the increase % stays the same it should end somewhere around 2,500. This is only an observation though.
 
megdavidson26 said:
The June bulletin went to 1,850 with advance notification for July at 2,000.

I don’t see the OC bulletin going current in FY24. There will be two more bulletins released and if the increase % stays the same it should end somewhere around 2,500. This is only an observation
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I sure hope it reaches 2500. Brit Simon expects it to go 2100 or maybe 2200. Finger crossed you are right.
 
F1j101 said:
I sure hope it reaches 2500. Brit Simon expects it to go 2100 or maybe 2200. Finger crossed you are right.
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I hope so for everyone also. It's been moving up by an average 200 CN every month (some lower, some higher jumps) but it might stop depending on other regions and global visas. Fingers crossed.
 
F1j101 said:
I sure hope it reaches 2500. Brit Simon expects it to go 2100 or maybe 2200. Finger crossed you are right.
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Well it's not "impossible" to go to 2500 - but here is my thinking explained. I'm not so much looking at the VB movement, as the quota and how it is filling in OC.

OC has a quota of about 850. To take more than that is possible, but means taking unused quota from other regions (which is possible, but only a limited amount).

But as of now there are 593 visas issued, 42 in 221g (we could assume at least half of those will be approved), probably some more still to be interviewed this month, and 185 scheduled in June or July. I still expect another 50+ people to be scheduled for July. Those numbers don't even include AOS cases which do count in the quota. So they must be close to "full". So - it wouldn't surprise me in that case to see the VB for OC rise only a small amount, or even not at all for either the next VB or the last one.
 
Britsimon said:
Well it's not "impossible" to go to 2500 - but here is my thinking explained. I'm not so much looking at the VB movement, as the quota and how it is filling in OC.

OC has a quota of about 850. To take more than that is possible, but means taking unused quota from other regions (which is possible, but only a limited amount).

But as of now there are 593 visas issued, 42 in 221g (we could assume at least half of those will be approved), probably some more still to be interviewed this month, and 185 scheduled in June or July. I still expect another 50+ people to be scheduled for July. Those numbers don't even include AOS cases which do count in the quota. So they must be close to "full". So - it wouldn't surprise me in that case to see the VB for OC rise only a small amount, or even not at all for either the next VB or the last one.
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Such a good explanation, thank you.

For those doing AOS, if the OC region is getting close to their quota and they get called for an interview - and go to that interview - has the IO ever then said “no visa available for your region” even if the full 55k quota hasn’t been filled yet?
 
megdavidson26 said:
Such a good explanation, thank you.

For those doing AOS, if the OC region is getting close to their quota and they get called for an interview - and go to that interview - has the IO ever then said “no visa available for your region” even if the full 55k quota hasn’t been filled yet?
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That is possible, but very rare.
 
Britsimon said:
Well it's not "impossible" to go to 2500 - but here is my thinking explained. I'm not so much looking at the VB movement, as the quota and how it is filling in OC.

OC has a quota of about 850. To take more than that is possible, but means taking unused quota from other regions (which is possible, but only a limited amount).

But as of now there are 593 visas issued, 42 in 221g (we could assume at least half of those will be approved), probably some more still to be interviewed this month, and 185 scheduled in June or July. I still expect another 50+ people to be scheduled for July. Those numbers don't even include AOS cases which do count in the quota. So they must be close to "full". So - it wouldn't surprise me in that case to see the VB for OC rise only a small amount, or even not at all for either the next VB or the last one.
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Makes total sense. This is why I refer to you since you are the guru here. I've researched and did my math but still comes back to your numbers. I didn't even consider AOS cases which you just pointed out. Aghh.. just breaks my heart.
 
F1j101 said:
Makes total sense. This is why I refer to you since you are the guru here. I've researched and did my math but still comes back to your numbers. I didn't even consider AOS cases which you just pointed out. Aghh.. just breaks my heart.
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Big caveat. DV2023 and DV2022 taught us that the government aren't quite as "logical" or even in control of the numbers as those of us like you who can do the math. There is always the possibility of a surprise.
 
megdavidson26 said:
Such a good explanation, thank you.

For those doing AOS, if the OC region is getting close to their quota and they get called for an interview - and go to that interview - has the IO ever then said “no visa available for your region” even if the full 55k quota hasn’t been filled yet?
Click to expand...

Britsimon said:
That is possible, but very rare.
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my understanding is that the only times this has happened is when either the per-country limit has been reached (very rare, I think I recall 2 cases) or the overall limit has been reached. I stand corrected, britsimon, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a refusal just based on the (flexible) quota, and I don’t think any of the OC countries even have enough selectees to reach the per-county limit?
 
SusieQQQ said:
my understanding is that the only times this has happened is when either the per-country limit has been reached (very rare, I think I recall 2 cases) or the overall limit has been reached. I stand corrected, britsimon, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a refusal just based on the (flexible) quota, and I don’t think any of the OC countries even have enough selectees to reach the per-county limit?
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I can't remember exactly, but that is mostly because quotas themselves were never really tested prior to DV2022 and DV2023. The caps were never fully me. OC is the closest of the regions to meet the quota in DV2024, and SA is close too. And yes you are correct the 7% cap can't be hit by any country in OC.
 
Britsimon said:
Big caveat. DV2023 and DV2022 taught us that the government aren't quite as "logical" or even in control of the numbers as those of us like you who can do the math. There is always the possibility of a surprise.
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Thats very true and they are very recent examples which kinda gives me a little hope. But its expecting something good to come out of chaotic situation like you've always called it.

Thank you for always sharing your knowledge.
 
chiming in here with 24XX (close to 2500) is it worth applying for DS260 now or wait for the July/August bulletin release of selected num winners to decide?

the immigrant intent thing worries me if its not even likely to make it through
 
Well here we are a few months down the track from all this chatter and it's gone beyond everyone's expectations!!! I guess the big takeaway for me is that anything is possible with this stuff. They are all just people's best guesses and that's all.
 
Btron said:
Well here we are a few months down the track from all this chatter and it's gone beyond everyone's expectations!!! I guess the big takeaway for me is that anything is possible with this stuff. They are all just people's best guesses and that's all.
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very true. We got current and waiting for our interview in Suva. How did it go with you?
 
Well yes it was surprising, BUT not everyone had the same happy experience. Suva was *amazing* and just somehow ignored the quota entirely, but other embassies (such as Sydney) were more cautious (Sydney stopped under 2400).

It's also a little surprising (and a bit scary) to see OC so clearly above its quota. I hope they don't stop the region early.
 
Britsimon said:
Well yes it was surprising, BUT not everyone had the same happy experience. Suva was *amazing* and just somehow ignored the quota entirely, but other embassies (such as Sydney) were more cautious (Sydney stopped under 2400).

It's also a little surprising (and a bit scary) to see OC so clearly above its quota. I hope they don't stop the region early.
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Eeek! This is my concern as an AOSer who is still waiting.
 
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