Statistical Analysis

[Silly Man]

Some interesting statistical analysis.

Month: Unapproved/Total.
Sept: 53/245
Aug: 36/115
July: 21/165
June: 20/95
May: 26/114
Apr: 17/137
March:3/27
Feb: 0/5

INS's date right now is 7/01/01, which means worst case every before (mostly) 6/1/1 should be approved by now
(minus weird exceptions/rfes),

So I can safely assume that 22 (26-4 rfes) unapproved from May, 13 (17-4) from April, and 3 from March are people who never updated their records. (Please point out otherwise)

Given that, we have an average of (19%,9.4%) Apprx - 15% dropout rate. Oh well lets assume worst case 12% drop out.
Which means out of the August and Sept. people, 245*0.12=29 (Sept) and 115*0.12=14 (August), people who might be dropouts.

Which leaves, 53-29=24 (Sept) and 36-14=22 (August) people who are yet to get their approvals.

Total of 24+22=46 2 months. Given the current approval rate (Assuming apprx 20 people a week), and considering that a lot of Approvals posted were never originally in Pcee list, it'd be safe to assume it will take atleast 3 weeks to clear out August and September, and this doesn't count June or July.

And then if INS decides to sit on and think before moving on with WAC-02 cases .. we are all screwed.

Crux of the story,
WAC-02/October-December Approvals are still some time away . DAMMIT.



Any comments?

 

[wudan]

hmm

http://boards.immigration.com/showthread.php?threadid=53364

 

[Silly Man]

COOOOOOL

HEhE Wudan this sure blows my analysis out the door huh? I pray to god this trend continues and my analysis is wrong.

 

[Sharma123]

Good analysis....

Although we are hearing about wac 02 approval starting. There are some thing I would like to point out.

1. I assume all the people who have not updated their fingerprint info as drop out which is surprisingly very close to your 12% assumption. The number of let approval for Aug and sept are 23 and 25 respectively( not including the people who did not update).

2. in place of 53*0.12=29 (Sept) and 36*0.12=14 (August), you meant 245*0.12 and 115*0.12

let us all wish ourselves good luck.