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September VB - DV14 Last Chapter

I read in many posts that some of you believe that EU will eventually get between 18 and 19K visas. How does this translate in EU CNs?
 
Britsimon said:
Just to remind you, that the Raevsky data is known to be missing vsas. 51k were issued but his data only had45k.

Also we know for a fact that the Ceac data is not updated correctly, so even if Rafik can do the same, that just brings us back to the same state as we are in with the method Dalius is using.
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I am speaking about the Reavsky sep CEAC file just to show you that we have two different column (cologne in French lololololol) whatever if the data is missed or not, the ration will not change, if we have 90% of the cases present on Reavsky file it's enough to calculate the ration, the two column are 'family member' and 'visa issued' , Rafik on his CEAC data mentioned only the first one which is not really the number visa issued, if we use he ration of last year we should have currently (10 june CEAC) 1300 less which is a good new, Rafik already replied and promised to add the 'visa issued' column, it's a kind of confirmation that he was calculating the 'family member' ..... let's hope that he will be motived (Russia 4 - 0 Algeria as Sloner predicted .... :) )
 
MalcomX said:
My September prediction:
AF: 87k, no exception for Nigeria & Egypt
EU: 46k
NA: Current
AS: Current/ Nep=9500
OC: 1750
SA: 2200

I hope that I am wrong ......
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You think Nepal will not change ??? Let say Nepal became 10.5k in Sep,do u think is there any possibility for AS to be CURRENT....... ???
 
MalcomX said:
I am speaking about the Reavsky sep CEAC file just to show you that we have two different column (cologne in French lololololol) whatever if the data is missed or not, the ration will not change, if we have 90% of the cases present on Reavsky file it's enough to calculate the ration, the two column are 'family member' and 'visa issued' , Rafik on his CEAC data mentioned only the first one which is not really the number visa issued, if we use he ration of last year we should have currently (10 june CEAC) 1300 less which is a good new, Rafik already replied and promised to add the 'visa issued' column, it's a kind of confirmation that he was calculating the 'family member' ..... let's hope that he will be motived (Russia 4 - 0 Algeria as Sloner predicted .... :) )
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Yes I understood your earlier point, cologne or not. However, once Rafik runs the data with the new column, we will have a file that more accurately represents the true CEAC data - and we know already that data is not accurate. CEAC itself is inaccurate - so we should be cautious with it...
 
nerandima said:
Can't we get any idea about AS of DV2014 through DV 2015 number of Selectees???
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Well simply put, they reduced the number of selectees for dv2015 so that seems a sign that they recognize that 2014 has to many selectees.

However, I believe 2015 still has too many selectees.. :-(
 
Britsimon said:
Well simply put, they reduced the number of selectees for dv2015 so that seems a sign that they recognize that 2014 has to many selectees.

However, I believe 2015 still has too many selectees.. :-(
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Ha Ha... i thought looking at 20k selectees in DV2015 , you will say hopefully in DV2014 they will interview atleat up to 20k......... lol ...Hey Simon how are you doing in US? Seems US jobs don't have much work to do....... lol
 
nerandima said:
Ha Ha... i thought looking at 20k selectees in DV2015 , you will say hopefully in DV2014 they will interview atleat up to 20k......... lol ...Hey Simon how are you doing in US? Seems US jobs don't have much work to do....... lol
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Hahaha you caught me not working! I am lucky to have a role where a lot of the expectation is to lead others toward better solutions to difficult problems. When the solutions are immediately crystal clear to me that sometimes gives me some free time to spend in the forum...
 

I would like to publish a google spreadsheet - I hope it works.
Can anybody tell me what is wrong with those calculations?

My calculations estimate the final CN for EU in DV2014 at about 52700. This is unreal, as the cut-off for August is 40150.
Maybe:
1. the calculated success rate is too low? (AP still need time to clear?)
2. total visas available for EU in DV2014 is too high (20000 which is a 40% of global quota of 50000).

When guessing total visas available for EU in DV2014 I took current rafiko data (on 06/03/2014 Europe had 41,32% of all issued visas) and data from dv2004 and dv2005 (last DV lotteries without current). In DV2004 EU had about 45% and in DV2005 40,14% of the global quota, so my guess here is 50000 x 40% = 20000 visas. We can add some from NACARA to this value.

We can change the value of total visas available for EU to see how it affects the final CN.
 
I looked at CEAC data from DV2013. The overall success rate for EU was 77%, so here is how it would look like if we had the same success rate in DV2014. The final CN for EU in DV2014 would be around 48500.

 
Britsimon said:
Hahaha you caught me not working! I am lucky to have a role where a lot of the expectation is to lead others toward better solutions to difficult problems. When the solutions are immediately crystal clear to me that sometimes gives me some free time to spend in the forum...
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I was just kidding........ You should be here with us..........
 
netu said:
To all selectees from Nepal with higher CN. Be optimistic because the special cut-off might be a temporary hold for a month. Like they did for Uzbekstan and Ethiopia. I hope it will go up to 13000.
:)
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Yes , agree about that , Nepal will go Current in september
 
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