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September VB - DV14 Last Chapter

I just call them because my nationality status have changed. My CN is 48k close to 49k EU and the lady told me to wait until 15th to see if they will reach my number. There was no false hope, she never said we are trying to make EU current or anything like that.
I would suggest you to keep calm and wait for 2-3 more days! There is no point to call them every 5 minutes.
Good luck everyone!!!
 
Guys since we didn't get the numbers yet !
And its the 7th of the month already, my guess is they are busy re injecting all the unsued Nacara visas back to DV, and hopefuly my second holes theory will kick in on the last chapter VB. :)
Fingers crossed
 
vladek15425 said:
Guys since we didn't get the numbers yet !
And its the 7th of the month already, my guess is they are busy re injecting all the unsued Nacara visas back to DV, and hopefuly my second holes theory will kick in on the last chapter VB. :)
Fingers crossed
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sorry Vlady , i missed something , what was the main point of that theory of 2nd holes? any link ?
 
We just call Kentucky. Thay tell us that there is no number yet, and we will have tham on 15th.. we are from EU, with cn close to 47000..
 
rocky72 said:
sorry Vlady , i missed something , what was the main point of that theory of 2nd holes? any link ?
Click to expand...
Basically I predicted a huge drop-out on the people responding with form to kcc, my estimations were around 77k sending forms and the non-show up will be around 15k and the denied around 10k ...and all regions will go current !
The second-hole are the ones that didn't send form because they don't show on the ceac, so far it worked :) that's why we reached quite high CNs as we can see !
But to reach the ''current'' there must be less than 12k cases still running for the visas, since we only have less 13k visas left to give away...
If you ask me now, if I still believe on my SH theory still?! I will tell that my heart say yes! But my brain says WTF !!!
So let me believe in my heart and wish all forum mate a happy end Current.
 
vladek15425 said:
Basically I predicted a huge drop-out on the people responding with form to kcc, my estimations were around 77k sending forms and the non-show up will be around 15k and the denied around 10k ...and all regions will go current !
The second-hole are the ones that didn't send form because they don't show on the ceac, so far it worked :) that's why we reached quite high CNs as we can see !
But to reach the ''current'' there must be less than 12k cases still running for the visas, since we only have less 13k visas left to give away...
If you ask me now, if I still believe on my SH theory still?! I will tell that my heart say yes! But my brain says WTF !!!
So let me believe in my heart and wish all forum mate a happy end Current.
Click to expand...

My brain agrees with your brain. :confused:

Based on previous years non response rate I think I previously calculated that the 140k would yield 90 - 95k responses and so far the Ceac data is showing 70K - which sort of validates that your heart has been smokin' weed.
 
Britsimon said:
My brain agrees with your brain. :confused:

Based on previous years non response rate I think I previously calculated that the 140k would yield 90 - 95k responses and so far the Ceac data is showing 70K - which sort of validates that your heart has been smokin' weed.
Click to expand...
Lol
The thing with the bloody second-holes is that no one can really put a number or even frame it in a certain range !(Except sloner :D)!
So its more of a wild and bushy guess, you proved all my fantastic theories wrong :)
But I hope and I know you wish the same that this time, at least the SH theory will become true :)
Ladies and gentlemen I will hear from you tomorrow ;) sleep time now
 
Britsimon said:
My brain agrees with your brain. :confused:

Based on previous years non response rate I think I previously calculated that the 140k would yield 90 - 95k responses and so far the Ceac data is showing 70K - which sort of validates that your heart has been smokin' weed.
Click to expand...

And if you look at the 2013 data you will see that for AF from CN 69k to the last data that we have CN 97k there are 4.9k selected if density is the same and i think it is the same. Not to mention other regions!!! Definitely there are more then 77k responses.
 
Britsimon said:
My brain agrees with your brain. :confused:

Based on previous years non response rate I think I previously calculated that the 140k would yield 90 - 95k responses and so far the Ceac data is showing 70K - which sort of validates that your heart has been smokin' weed.
Click to expand...
In СЕАС missing a lot of numbers. I would not trust this figure.:)
 
eliolaz said:
And if you look at the 2013 data you will see that for AF from CN 69k to the last data that we have CN 97k there are 4.9k selected if density is the same and i think it is the same. Not to mention other regions!!! Definitely there are more then 77k responses.
Click to expand...
In 2014, the density is lower, but more numbers. In reality, I think they are equal to or less with 2013.
 
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