Sepember visa bulleting is out

saras76 said:
Its a total crap shoot for India EB3s in 07. If BEC backlogs produce tons of 01 and prior PDs then we are screwed. The timing will be crucial. If these do no show up till December then there is some hope for 01 filers. Its going to be pure luck.
Click to expand...

Many guys are holding on to there BEC labors ... for them it might be a fair thing to happen ... they have have been waiting longer then us.. But many who got stuck moved on and field another labor or something ... Most of them are been substituted.

It might be possible that they clear most of the backlog in a bulk ... and take 2 - 6 months for 140 approval ..... For India both EB3 and EB2 look bleak even for year 2007....
 
My apologies for bringing the color.

You are right, no need for color in the equation. Thanks for pointing that out.

H


posmd said:
Why is it all about skin colour with you?

Look, I can see how you can say the quota system is unfair in EB based etc etc, but they are clearly applying the rules by the way they are. There are over 40 countries in africa, the last time I looked they were dark skinned and they each get the same quota as the european countries. India with its population of twice that of the whole of Africa gets messed up by the policy.
Where in all this do you see the US screweing coloured people.
Educated folks ought to rise above this sort of thing, I expect this more from those like Al Sharpton etc. who blame all their woes on race.

We need the SKIL bill and it should rise or fail on its merits. If as it looks CIR fails, then it will open a window for SKIL. Lets reserve judgement.
Click to expand...
 
Folks
Does anybody know approx. when they will publish the actual nbr for what they did for EB in 06.
We can only believe anything when we see the actual nbrs. In the end if they do actually use up all visa nbrs, we will have some idea of the impact.
 
Food for thought ...

Guys and Gals,

The one thing that I can't seem to figure out is why India EB3 has not become unavaliable even in September? On the one hand the DOS expects us to believe that there are thousands of pending and ready to approve India EB3s in the system yet this whole year they have not been able to exhaust India EB3 visa numbers. I think there are only about 2,700 visas that can granted to India EB3s and the DOS and USCIS want us to believe that India EB3 has huge demand yet the quota of 2,700 visas has not been exhausted. It is puzzling. My only guess is that there are thousands of pending April 01 India EB3 PDs. In this case they should have moved the dates to April 15th much earlier and kept them there. If there are indeed thousands of regular (non 245is) India EB3s still pending and ready for approval and thousands of India EB3 245i cases in the BECs then there is no hope at all. I can't refute the fact that there may be a lot of India EB3s in 245is but I know for a fact that there just aren't that many regular (non 245i) pending India EB3s from 2001. A majority of them have already been approved. The DOSs current approcah is ensuring that regular 2001 PDs will get screwed because they will soon get crushed by the 245is. Its like waiting for a train wreck to happen.

I don't think anyone can explain the logic behind moving the dates for India EB3 to 7th or 8th April in June, moving them to 15th April in July, moving them back to the 1st of April in August and finally moving them back to the 15th of April in September. If the demand was so great then visa numbers would have become unvailable in Septmeber. Yet the dates have moved ahead in Septmeber. Its totally senseless.

Anyway, EB3 India needs some divine intervention at this point. I just don't see any other way out at this point.

regards,

saras
 
Last edited by a moderator:
My thoughts

The last 4 Visa bulletins India EB3 is stuck in April 2001. My guess is that 245i cases, if any, are already in the stream, and demand kicked in. One way this is good that the demand for 245is has been partially met. Hopefully in the next FY we see slight forward movement. One thing still puzzles me is if 245i are holding the dates back then why is only India EB3 and Mexico EB3 were stuck in April, 2001. Hope things will be clearer in the coming months.

-Thanks
 
USCIS has a very precise infosystem

saras76 said:
Guys and Gals,
I don't think anyone can explain the logic behind moving the dates for India EB3 to 7th or 8th April in June, moving them to 15th April in July, moving them back to the 1st of April in August and finally moving them back to the 15th of April in September.

regards,

saras
Click to expand...

Don't we all know that USCIS and DOS has a very precise infosystem :rolleyes: ;) :D
CIS Ombudsman says in his annual report:
Currently USCIS does not collect these vital data (immigrant visa classifications, PD, countries of chargeability) on Employment based green card applications upon acceptance for processing. --- .This leaves USCIS unable to provide DOS with accurate data regarding these applications. Therefore DOS must set cutoff dates without a clear understanding of pending applications.
http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlibrary/CISOmbudsman_AnnualReport_2006_II-B-Untimely_Processing.pdf

In another part of the report, CIS Ombudsman admits that he is responsible for involving DOL (from Sept. 2005) in the discussions between USCIS and DOS in setting the cutoff dates.
That probably explains the retrogression of EB3 India to all the way back to 1998 at the beginning of FY2006
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Being the last month for this fiscal year, they are trying to make sure that all their EB3 world quota is used up... that's why the sudden large movement to March 2002. I was surprised at first until I started reading the bulletin closely and realised that in the start of the new fiscal year 2007, we definitely have a high chance of seeing another retro... I am betting there will be alot of I485 filings for those with PDs between 1 Oct 2001 to 1 Mar 2002.

blondhenge said:
I've read the comment in the bulletin repeatedly and agree that it is somewhat cryptic as to what will happen come October.

I just remember reading (about a month ago) that DOS was predicting "Severe Retrogression" for EB-3. At the time, a lot of us concluded that come October, they will retrogress everything again (like they did in 2005).

I hope we both luck out--I actually thought we would luck out for this bulletin.

In the meantime, I have a very good offer in Canada that I may very well accept because of this.
Click to expand...
 
If you are at NSC, apparently the pre-adjudication thing is moving along; although my PD is April 2002, I received I-485 RFE already. There is hope they are a little ahead already.

moved01 said:
I am a little concerned about USCIS' ability to process 5 months worth of EB3 cases (minus India cases) during the month of September. Any thoughts??
Click to expand...
 
Guys,

Is there a transparent way to find how the USCIS spent up the Visa numbers in each category for FY2006 once the FY year is over in Sept end?

This the the only way to know what happened and what is really happening.
Instead of speculating and calculating stuff we should try to figure out what happened to the Visa's in FY 2006 especially for EB-3.

I am almost sure that whatever is supposed to be earmarked to India EB-3 in FY2006 will go unused. I dont know what the number is, but I guess it is somewhere between 2000 - 4000. I am sure lot of guys know the correct number.

Number can do all the talking.

neo
 
GaramChai2go said:
i is not for india. It comes under EB3. But it is surprising that there are so many indians under 245i.
Click to expand...

Why are you surprised? Do you think all the Indians in NY, NJ , CA etc are here legally?
:eek:
 
Take these predictions with a pinch of salt!

brahmaputra said:
D. EMPLOYMENT THIRD PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

The Employment Third preference cut-off date for most countries has been advanced very rapidly in recent months in an effort to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit. As a result, applicant demand for numbers, particularly for adjustment of status cases at Citizenship and Immigration Service (CIS) Offices, is expected to increase significantly. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that such advances will continue during the coming months. It should be noted that the Department of Labor expects to complete its backlog reduction effort during FY-2007. This effort will result in tens of thousands of cases, including many with very early priority dates, becoming eligible for processing at CIS Offices. This could require the retrogression of the Employment Third preference cut-off dates at any time during FY-2007.
Click to expand...
Here is the comparison between the predictions by DOS vs the reality in September Visa bulletin:
Immigration Visa Prediction for September 2006
Immigrant visa number use is approaching the annual limits for the year in many categories, and the supply of numbers remaining for allocation is limited. Therefore, for September there is increased possibility of additional retrogressions of cut-off dates such as those experienced in August. Readers should not assume visa availability until the cut-off dates are announced. Categories which could experience retrogressions are:
Prediction Reality
Worldwide: Employment 4th Current
China: Employment 2nd and 3rd EB2 remains at 01 Mar 05; EB3 advanced by 5 months to 01 Mar 02
India: Employment 1st Current
Mexico: Employment 3rd Remains at 22 Apr 01
 
Last edited by a moderator:
neocor said:
Guys,

Is there a transparent way to find how the USCIS spent up the Visa numbers in each category for FY2006 once the FY year is over in Sept end?

This the the only way to know what happened and what is really happening.
Instead of speculating and calculating stuff we should try to figure out what happened to the Visa's in FY 2006 especially for EB-3.

I am almost sure that whatever is supposed to be earmarked to India EB-3 in FY2006 will go unused. I dont know what the number is, but I guess it is somewhere between 2000 - 4000. I am sure lot of guys know the correct number.

Number can do all the talking.

neo
Click to expand...

The DOS publishes visa number usage, by country/etc. every year. For FY 2006, it will probably be out in January 2007 (or so).
 
envision said:
Why are you surprised? Do you think all the Indians in NY, NJ , CA etc are here legally?
:eek:
Click to expand...
What is surprising is that India 245i are as bad Mexico that's why both are retrogressed. Infact even Mexico is ahead of us if you look at the dates.
 
yes, the 245i people under employment needed to show they were doing jobs that are hard to do and few do them. at the risk of sterotyping, maybe not as many mexicans got in because they cut grass and wash dishes. many indians got in because of IT work and things like that. add to that the confussion at the time and not many mexicans having computers. again, at the risk of sterotyping. and perhaps there are more indians than we think there are.
 
Do we know whether 245(i) applicants consume Eb4 RoW, or that goes more into the EB3 RoW category ?
My PD is April 2002.


TheInquisitor said:
yes, the 245i people under employment needed to show they were doing jobs that are hard to do and few do them. at the risk of sterotyping, maybe not as many mexicans got in because they cut grass and wash dishes. many indians got in because of IT work and things like that. add to that the confussion at the time and not many mexicans having computers. again, at the risk of sterotyping. and perhaps there are more indians than we think there are.
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top