Retrogression math for EB1

techy2468

Registered Users (C)
i think only uscis knows the right answer....but assuming the worst this is my take:

in the past they queue for I-485 was so less, that they kept EB3, EB2 and EB1 current, and i think they used to process I-485 without any category-wise priority, that means first come first serve basis.....EB1 same as EB2 or EB3

calculation(copied from--retrogression doing math thread)
Assumptions:
1) Total Green cards of 140,000 for a given fiscal year
2) 28.6 % each for a given category EB1, EB2, AND EB3.
3) Per country limit of 7.1 %
4) Also, we all are aware that last few years where the dates stayed current was because of AC21 and a lot of visas were issued from the pool recaptured from earlier years' un-used quota. We all should remember and not question why suddenly there is a concept of priority date now. We should have seen it coming, I think
8) Average family size 2.13

Step1: Per country limit for a year 9,800 (rounded) 7.1 % of 140,000
step2: assuming that we will get another 10000 from unsubscribed visas from other categories and countries..., we have around 20000

Step3: Limit for each category 5,400 (rounded) 28.6% Step 1
step 3: after family it is 2500 (rounded) step2/2.13


that means there are only 2500 visa/yr for EB1-india or EB1-china.

the same rule applies for EB2 per country wise.

but the bad news is that in 2004, total number of EB1 visa were 26,381 ( http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/yearbook/2004/table5.xls )

if we assume that 25% of that is india or china.....thats not as bad as EB3 or EB2..

because that means....atleast 7500 (2500 primary applicants) were EB1 india..

if this calculation is right, and if there is no legislation, it may take 2-3 years to get a I-485 approved for EB1, from the date I-140 was filed(without major RFE's).

can anyone validate this calculation.
 
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Hello,

I think that the retrogression for EB1 India will not take 2-3 years to clear. This is due to the following two reasons:

1. If you see the EB1 green card issuance during last few years, the distribution among its three subcategories are approximately as follows;

Multinational Managers: 55%
Outstanding professors/researchers: 25%
Extraordinary ability: 20%

I think that in the manager subcategory, India born applicants would be much less than 25% in that subcategory. My feeling is that majority of the manager applicants are born in Europe or Canada, from where intra-company transfer rate is higher. I think that in the overall EB1 subcategory approximately 15% would be peoples born in India. In EB2 and EB3 categories this percentage would be higher than 25% so that approximately 25% of total EB applicants are born in India.

2. Remember that all the unused EB4 and EB5 visas go to EB1. In the EB5 category there are hardly any applicants, particularly from India. Assuming the total available EB visas in the FY 2006 is 152,000 total EB5 visa available in 2006 is 10857. EB5 category will use only 100-200 visas while approx 10700 visas will be unused. So, 750 visa are available to EB1 (India) from EB5. Also, I think that yearly about 300 visas are available to EB1 (India) from EB4.

Thus, total EB1 visas available to India in FY 2006 is approximately 152,000*0.286*0.07 + 1,050 = 4,093. If around 31,000 total EB1 visas are required in a year, India will require about 31000*0.15 = 4,600 EB1 visas in 2006. Thus, I think that people born in India will have to wait about a year after the priority date to get the EB1 green card.

What do you think about this?

Thanks for your attentions.
 
I think we are talking about the same thing....

when i said:
****
if this calculation is right, and if there is no legislation, it may take 2-3 years to get a I-485 approved for EB1. ****

i meant for a fresh filed case(lets say I-140 filed in Jan 06) it wont take more than 2-3 years for I-485 approval......that means PD can become current after 1.5-2 years.....and now it should not take more than 6 months for I-485 approval since they are not taking cases in bulk..
 
techy2468 said:
I think we are talking about the same thing....

when i said:
****
if this calculation is right, and if there is no legislation, it may take 2-3 years to get a I-485 approved for EB1. ****

i meant for a fresh filed case(lets say I-140 filed in Jan 06) it wont take more than 2-3 years for I-485 approval......that means PD can become current after 1.5-2 years.....and now it should not take more than 6 months for I-485 approval since they are not taking cases in bulk..
The numbers look reasonable. I hope for a good sized jump in the PDs for EB1 in the Dec update from DOS although I think it is not going to reach current anytime soon unless legislation gets passed and implemented. Now that a queue has been established, the supply demand scenario will get better for EB1 applicants but we will still see wait times of over 2 years for a person applying today.

Just my opinion
 
Interesting calculations!

Hello
The calculations you guys have shared are really outstanding! I am amazed by the detailed information you had presented.

Ok, If I may ask a calculated guess from you guys about my case.
My priority date for EB-1 visa is Nov. 2002. I have my I-485 pending (filed in sep 2005.).What is you best guess that I can expect my green card.
thanks
 
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