Retrogression is expected to get worse before it gets better

kamrans

Registered Users (C)
This is something I got from shusterman news letter. Check below

As recently as December 2004, all employment-based (EB) categories for permanent residence were "current". That is, there were no backlogs.
That all started to change in January 2005 when the EB-3 category (professionals and skilled workers) backlogged three years. These backlogs are referred to as the "retrogression".

The retrogression has gradually gotten worse during the past 21 months. The October 2006 State Department Visa Bulletin reveals that the EB-3 category has now retrogressed almost 4 1/2 years. The backlogs are even greater for persons born in India and Mexico. Even the EB-2 category for advanced-degreed professionals has backlogged for persons born in India and China. See


http://shusterman.com/vb.html

In the absence of congressional action, the retrogression will get worse, probably a lot worse, before it gets better. Why?
In May 2005, President Bush, recognizing the tremendous shortage of nurses and therapists, signed a bill which "recaptured" 50,000 immigrant visas for Schedule A professionals, primarily registered nurses, physical therapists and their family members. By the end of this month, all 50,000 visas will be used up. What will happen to RNs and PTs who are still in line for green cards and those who will apply for permanent residence in the future? They will be added to the EB-3 backlog which will result in increased waiting times, perhaps to five years or more.

The total number of persons who are permitted to obtain permanent residence each year in the employment-based categories is only 140,000. Adding another 30,000 - 50,000 to the current backlogs will certainly make the retrogression more severe.

Even more problematic are the 300,000+ applications for labor certification currently pending in the Labor Department's (DOL's) Backlog Elimination Centers. DOL has pledged to take action on each of these applications within the next 18 months. Even if only 200,000 of these applications are ultimately approved, if 50% of the applicants have a spouse and one child, the number of green cards needed to accommodate them would total 300,000. This is more than double the annual cap on EB green cards. Therefore, this has the potential to make the EB-2 and EB-3 numbers regress another two years.

Finally, present laws contain hard per-country caps. This means that countries like India and China which have populations of over one billion persons each have exactly the same quotas as Monaco and Mauritius, two tiny countries which supply the U.S. with virtually no immigrants. Given that most H-1B professionals are born in India and China, the per-country quotas will exaggerate the retrogression for persons born in these countries.

If high-skilled immigrants could only come to U.S. or remain in their own countries, our country could afford to continue this backward, "Let them eat Chicken McNuggets!" approach. But various European countries, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the Persian Gulf countries are all competing for these talented individuals. Even Germany, the great bastion for engineers is seeing the number of German students studying engineering fall precipitously.

It is in our national interest to make our country the principal destination for computer professionals and scientists, for nurses, teachers and therapists, and for businessmen and physicians from all over the world.

The Senate immigration bill (S.2611) would have greatly expanded both the outdated employment and family-based immigration systems and eased the per-country limitations. Unfortunately, House Republicans, worried that they might lose their majority in the mid-term elections, refused to negotiate a compromise bill with the Senate.

Perhaps, in the "lame duck" session of Congress which will occur after the November elections, reason will prevail and Congress will pass amendments to fix our legal immigration system.

But just in case, be sure to keep the heat on members of Congress, and perhaps, they will see the light.
 
kamrans said:
Even more problematic are the 300,000+ applications for labor certification currently pending in the Labor Department's (DOL's) Backlog Elimination Centers. DOL has pledged to take action on each of these applications within the next 18 months. Even if only 200,000 of these applications are ultimately approved, if 50% of the applicants have a spouse and one child, the number of green cards needed to accommodate them would total 300,000. This is more than double the annual cap on EB green cards. Therefore, this has the potential to make the EB-2 and EB-3 numbers regress another two years..

The sad part is that most of these 300, 000 are not really waiting anymore. They moved ahead and got the labors using PERM. But, because of the labor substitution, all these approved labors can be misused. If somebody is really genuine I have no problem, but there needs to be some monitoring on how these are going to be used. Better yet, change the rule on subs to make the 140 ND on Subs as the PD. The result will be unfortunate for many people, if they don't do anything about this.
 
labor substitution.....

Being a retro case myself...I see labor substitution can be a big problem. I thought they tried to do something about it...why don't they do something now?

I guess all those who support on increasing visa's should first curb this labor sub business, that itself will give enough boost to visa shortage.
 
Labor sub ..

spulla said:
The sad part is that most of these 300, 000 are not really waiting anymore. They moved ahead and got the labors using PERM. But, because of the labor substitution, all these approved labors can be misused. If somebody is really genuine I have no problem, but there needs to be some monitoring on how these are going to be used. Better yet, change the rule on subs to make the 140 ND on Subs as the PD. The result will be unfortunate for many people, if they don't do anything about this.

This news is indeed dis-heartening but some of the info is incorrect. If I remember correctly, the info about 300,000 pending labors is incorrect. The BECs and DOL recently annouced that of the 300,000 cases that were pending only 179K or so were legit. Of these they expected about half to not respond to the 45 day letters leaving about 90K in actual pending labors. So the number of pending labors is not 300K. However, I agree that labor sub will do a lot of damage to us in the upcoming year. There was some talk of eliminating labor sub a few months ago but it has been brushed under the carpet.

The only solution is a change in the law. Lets see what happens in Nov and then we can start working with IV and other organizations to try and get some resolution.

regards,

saras
 
Another important thing we can do as a community is to identify those companies who are in the "Business" to applying for the GC for the people who are working in the gas stations etc. I know it is very hard and sad for the people in that situation but technically they are like illegal mexicans. The only difference is that illegal mexican immigrants are not messing with our visa numbers, so i think if people start to report these kind of abuses we will have much better shot art resolving this matter.
 
The 50,000 Schedule A Workers are not eating up the traditional 140K quota.

Read the bulletin below from last year (section F).

For those 50,000 schedule a workers, the visa numbers are being assigned by recapturing the unused visas between 2001 and 2004. So, this doesnt mean that last year or this year we are 140K - 50K = 90K quota !!!

I dont understand, how a law firm can publish incorrect data in a newsletter.

By the way, that backlogged labor numbers are wrong as well.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_2539.html
 
Title V, Section 502 of the REAL ID Act of 2005 (Division B of Pub. L. 109-13 enacted May 11, 2005) provides for the recapture of 50,000 Employment-based immigrant visa numbers that were unused in fiscal years 2001 through 2004.

It says that the visa numbers are recaptured from the unused category of EB, so actually it was the numbers available to the EB category and they gave it away to the Schedule A worker category. I agree with you that it is not 140K - 50K = 90K but it is more like 140K + (could have had) 50K = 190K to solve the retrogression but the dumb heads in the white house wanted to use that for Nurses since IT people are not hot anymore....
 
Guys,
get a grip. If I recall, I read this item many moons ago. So this is a very old report. It does not reflect the reality as of today.
 
Akela,

The problem is not how recent the report is but rather what it says. It clearly declares that the USCIS and this white house is using thier powers to allocate the much needed visa numbers for the EB category to the Schedule A workers category. And we all are screwed because of that. So you tell me my friend how does it matter how old the report is ?? Has there been any change in the white house, USCIS or its policies ??

I do not think so and thus the report (section F at least) is as relevant today as it was in 2005. We should not be overlooking this kind of trend. May be we did before that is why we are paying for this dearly.....
 
puerthoughts said:
Akela,

The problem is not how recent the report is but rather what it says. It clearly declares that the USCIS and this white house is using thier powers to allocate the much needed visa numbers for the EB category to the Schedule A workers category. And we all are screwed because of that. So you tell me my friend how does it matter how old the report is ?? Has there been any change in the white house, USCIS or its policies ??

I do not think so and thus the report (section F at least) is as relevant today as it was in 2005. We should not be overlooking this kind of trend. May be we did before that is why we are paying for this dearly.....

FACTS:
Anyone who is looking to get EAD's (avoid retrogession) or get a permanent visa/GC is NOT going to be helped by companies. It is not in the interest of most companies (especially the staffing companies) to lobby for this.

Also given the strong demand for Schedule -A workers, diversity workers, skilled workers will suffer.

Congress does act to somehow provide for visas for people it needs, similar to Schedule - A. It doesn't have to be part of a huge bill.

ESSENTIALLY, IV AND LEGAL IMMIGRANTS NEED TO FIND CASES OF EXPLOITATION BY STAFFING AND OTHER EMPLOYERS AND MAKE SOME NOISE TO SIMPLYFY THE RULES.
No point of debating the pros and cons of immigration. Better to get some cases out and make some noise about these. Congress will listen like they did by getting in PERM.
 
Partly correct

laudrup said:
The 50,000 Schedule A Workers are not eating up the traditional 140K quota.

Read the bulletin below from last year (section F).

For those 50,000 schedule a workers, the visa numbers are being assigned by recapturing the unused visas between 2001 and 2004. So, this doesnt mean that last year or this year we are 140K - 50K = 90K quota !!!

I dont understand, how a law firm can publish incorrect data in a newsletter.

By the way, that backlogged labor numbers are wrong as well.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_2539.html

You are right in that it is a special allotment of visas for schedule A workers approved last year.

HOWEVER, firstly those 50K visas were "recapture" visas from 2001-2003 slowdown(out of the annual 140K EB visas for those years). There were 100K total left for recapture and they chose to put about 50K of them toward schedule A.
Secondly once that 50K is up those categories of workers will infact join the EB3 queue, but unlike now they will be at the back of it since they start their petitions at the 140 stage and that sets their PD.

However worry not, the hospital lobby is so strong that once those 50K are used up the remaining 50K left for recapture will also be put to use for schedule A, of this I have little doubt.

Purerthoughts, you might not like it but that is their market need at this time. I can't fault them for doing that. I just feel right now they are screwing EB India more severely than can be justified by anything but the sternest lawyer rigidly and inhumanely applying the rules.
 
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Let me make this clear, Schedule A worker do not take visa away from EB workers. There 50,000 quota is not from 140 K quota for EB worker. Schedule A worker getting visa has no bearing on EB visa (except for two very minor point, 1. The processing of 50,000 extra visa delays regular processing of EB, but given that nearly million GC visas are processed each year, this is a tiny drop. 2 Potentially some of nurses from earlier years might take there visa through this route and get out of way of regular EB hopefulls).
I am sorry to say this report is wrong. It was kind of correct (at that time the data was not avialable, when FY05 figures were published, this memo had many facts wrong as mentioned by Saras) at the time it was published, I would not waste any more time on this. I believe the lawyer made a good reading at that time with whatever data was availabel. In hindsight, most of it was incorrect.
 
Politicking ..

Guys and Gals,

I believe that Shusterman is a big proponent of the CIR (especially the illegal immigrant clauses) and is politicking through his monthly newsletters. He is selectively using information to bolster his case. Whatever his motivation, his newsletter does address the very valid issue of indifference from all quarters of government. There is no political will or political traction to gain from immigration so politicians are staying away. There is no incentive for corporations to lobby for relief because they are not being affected by retrogression. The current political climate is completely against illegal immigrants and indifferent towards legal immigrants.

Think about it. Only four categories are suffering right now (EB2-EB3 India, EB3 Mexico and to a certain extent EB3 ROW). All other categories are doing well and the system is working perfectly. So there is very little concern from any quarter. 75% of the system is working perfectly while 25% is totally broken. To the US government and lawmakers, this scenario is much better than the past when 100% of the process was partly broken. My point is that we are up against some large obstacles here and need to realize our limitations. Keeping everything in mind, we need to keep pursuing relief. The problem will eventually get fixed but it is probably going to take a while. We need to keep trying through all channels.

Regards,

Saras76
 
saras76 said:
Guys and Gals,

So there is very little concern from any quarter. 75% of the system is working perfectly while 25% is totally broken. To the US government and lawmakers, this scenario is much better than the past when 100% of the process was partly broken.

This number is probably success beyond their wildest dream. No doubt they are also being told that the remaining 25% will "work itself out in time", or "that as usual, demand to immigrate to the US exceeds our capacity to supply". If they listen to those two arguments, they have a 100% success rate on the program.
 
distribution of visas.

Saras,

could u please go over some of the posts of mine (gc_tx_2003) in the last few days , I think they are in the section Outlook for 2007. , and please comment on some of those.

I think you have been following this for quite sometime, and would like to see what u think.
 
visas

gc_tx_2003 said:
Saras,

could u please go over some of the posts of mine (gc_tx_2003) in the last few days , I think they are in the section Outlook for 2007. , and please comment on some of those.

I think you have been following this for quite sometime, and would like to see what u think.

gc_tx_2003,

I have been following things closely but last years visa allocation is beyond me. Maybe I don't understand it correctly or there isn't enough information to convince me of some logic. I personally feel that we are all making to many assumptions when it comes to visas. I for one have not been able to understand the need to place India EB3 at 1998 and move it to 2001 within a few months in FY06. I am also surprised by the number of 245is from India and personally believe the DOS/USCIS is being extra catious when it comes to EB3. I believe that there is huge demand within EB3 but the current dates factor in both huge demand and huge "anticipated" demand. Both these factors will weight on EB3 (especially India) for a long time.

I am convinced of one thing though. The only solution at this point is a change in the law. If a pro legal immigration bill does not materialize soon then the situation will not change much in the near term (1-2 years). Its already been a year and half of severe retro. Without a bill severe retro will last another 2 years and intermittent retro will stay forever.

regards,

saras
 
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saras,

Do u think EB3 ROW will have to be current before the unused visas from EB1 and EB2 ROW can be distributed to EB2 india. , as UnitedNations and someothers are suggesting ?
 
> I am also surprised by the number of 245is from India
Hi Saras,
just wondering :), why are you surprised by the number of 245 from India. did you expect that they are more than you thought ?
one of my friends says that during that time, his lawyer told him that tons (atleast 5000 cases by this lawyer) of Indians are applying for that. if you go to a gas station where an Indian works or to a motel then the chances are that the workers/employer of that gas station has applied under 245i
 
Yes ...

mariner555 said:
> I am also surprised by the number of 245is from India
Hi Saras,
just wondering :), why are you surprised by the number of 245 from India. did you expect that they are more than you thought ?
one of my friends says that during that time, his lawyer told him that tons (atleast 5000 cases by this lawyer) of Indians are applying for that. if you go to a gas station where an Indian works or to a motel then the chances are that the workers/employer of that gas station has applied under 245i

mariner555,

I guess I underestimated the number from India. That is all I was trying to say. Now I realize that there were thousands.

regards,

saras
 
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