Retrogression: Doing the MATH- I-485 EB backlog estimates
- Thread starter gcstrat
- Start date
245i Cases
According to my attorney, 95% of the 245i cases are from Mexico and the remaining 5% are other countries. Indian cases are miniscule in number. But the fact that EB3 India and China are backlogged behind other countries is that the sheer volume of cases from India and China is large (1/3rd of the world's population is in these countries).
My belief is that EB3 India and China will steadily move ahead in the next few months whereas other countries and Mexico will be stalled in and around April/May 2001.
Dallas03096 said:
According to my attorney, 95% of the 245i cases are from Mexico and the remaining 5% are other countries. Indian cases are miniscule in number. But the fact that EB3 India and China are backlogged behind other countries is that the sheer volume of cases from India and China is large (1/3rd of the world's population is in these countries).
My belief is that EB3 India and China will steadily move ahead in the next few months whereas other countries and Mexico will be stalled in and around April/May 2001.
Some thoughts...
Texancanadian: You are right, my mistake - BECs are under DOL. What was I thinking when I wrote USCIS.
And yes, you are right, there will be 245(i) cases from India. This is my speculation on 245(i) cases:
70% = Mexico/Latin America
10% = Europe
15% = Asia
5% = Canada/ Australia/ Africa
Total 245(i) cases were around 300K, so
1) at 5% of Total for India, this makes for only 15K cases.
2) at 10% of total for India, this makes for only 30K cases.
Not a whole lot (it is less than the yearly EB based LPRs issued for India), you agree. Again, no "real" reason for retrogression for EB3 India to be in dinosaur age.
Regards
GCStrat
Texancanadian: You are right, my mistake - BECs are under DOL. What was I thinking when I wrote USCIS.
And yes, you are right, there will be 245(i) cases from India. This is my speculation on 245(i) cases:
70% = Mexico/Latin America
10% = Europe
15% = Asia
5% = Canada/ Australia/ Africa
Total 245(i) cases were around 300K, so
1) at 5% of Total for India, this makes for only 15K cases.
2) at 10% of total for India, this makes for only 30K cases.
Not a whole lot (it is less than the yearly EB based LPRs issued for India), you agree. Again, no "real" reason for retrogression for EB3 India to be in dinosaur age.
Regards
GCStrat
Valid points
AGC4ME,
You raise some valid points. I believe the DOS and USCIS overdid the retrogression by pushing PDs by almost 8 years. When they realized that there were virtually no pending cases with PDs of 98, 99 and 2000 they quickly brought the dates into 01. 2001 is a "troubled" year so far as DOS and USCIS are concerned. They have been anticipating 245is to flood the service centers for the past few months. I am not sure if this is happening.
I can pretty confidently tell you that there aren't to many non-245i EB3 India cases with PDs in 2001. When I say not to many I mean there aren't tens of thousands. There maybe about 10K at most. I state this because I am a 2001 filer and have been following this forum along with others since then. Almost every person I know that had a 2001 PD has been approved. What remains now are Name Check victims, USCIS mistake victims and substitute PDs. What is troubling is that inspite of this the USCIS is not moving India EB3s by more than a month for the past two months. I am convinced that these moves are based purely on speculation. They have no idea how many India EB3s with 2001 PDs are out there and are going by historical data to ascertain that the demand within India EB3 will be huge. What they really don't know is that their own stupid system approved most 2001 cases out of order. They are being extra cautious.
I think this trend will continue till atleast the end of this fiscal year (ending Sept 06). From Oct 06 we may see a more realistic approach to PD pregression. Who knows, we may even have a favorable immigration bill signed into law by then. As hard as it is to do, we will just have to be patient these next 5-6 months.
regards,
saras
AGC4ME said:
AGC4ME,
You raise some valid points. I believe the DOS and USCIS overdid the retrogression by pushing PDs by almost 8 years. When they realized that there were virtually no pending cases with PDs of 98, 99 and 2000 they quickly brought the dates into 01. 2001 is a "troubled" year so far as DOS and USCIS are concerned. They have been anticipating 245is to flood the service centers for the past few months. I am not sure if this is happening.
I can pretty confidently tell you that there aren't to many non-245i EB3 India cases with PDs in 2001. When I say not to many I mean there aren't tens of thousands. There maybe about 10K at most. I state this because I am a 2001 filer and have been following this forum along with others since then. Almost every person I know that had a 2001 PD has been approved. What remains now are Name Check victims, USCIS mistake victims and substitute PDs. What is troubling is that inspite of this the USCIS is not moving India EB3s by more than a month for the past two months. I am convinced that these moves are based purely on speculation. They have no idea how many India EB3s with 2001 PDs are out there and are going by historical data to ascertain that the demand within India EB3 will be huge. What they really don't know is that their own stupid system approved most 2001 cases out of order. They are being extra cautious.
I think this trend will continue till atleast the end of this fiscal year (ending Sept 06). From Oct 06 we may see a more realistic approach to PD pregression. Who knows, we may even have a favorable immigration bill signed into law by then. As hard as it is to do, we will just have to be patient these next 5-6 months.
regards,
saras
texancanadian
Registered Users (C)
saras 76, Gurus,
I know there is no point speculating but I just need a reality check to confirm Im not being overly pessimistic.
My EB3 India PD is August 2001. What do you think of my PD becoming current by January 2008 ? Do you think there is a good chance it will become current by then ?
I know there is no point speculating but I just need a reality check to confirm Im not being overly pessimistic.
My EB3 India PD is August 2001. What do you think of my PD becoming current by January 2008 ? Do you think there is a good chance it will become current by then ?
Dallas03096
Registered Users (C)
By Jan2007
The crystalball shows "EB3 India PD of August 2001 visa availability by January 2007"
Basis:
May 2006 Bulletin: 1 Mar 2001
Jun 2006 Bulletin: 1 Apr 2001 (Forecast)
Jul 2006 Bulletin: 1 May 2001 (Forecast)
Will remain there until Sep 2006 (Forecast)
Oct 2006 Bulletin: 1 June 2001 (Forecast)
Nov 2006 Bulletin: 1 July 2001 (Forecast)
Dec 2006 Bulletin: 1 August 2001 (Forecast)
Jan 2007 Bulletin: 1 September 2001 (Forecast)
GCStrat: Sorry for hijacking your thread
texancanadian said:
The crystalball shows "EB3 India PD of August 2001 visa availability by January 2007"
Basis:
May 2006 Bulletin: 1 Mar 2001
Jun 2006 Bulletin: 1 Apr 2001 (Forecast)
Jul 2006 Bulletin: 1 May 2001 (Forecast)
Will remain there until Sep 2006 (Forecast)
Oct 2006 Bulletin: 1 June 2001 (Forecast)
Nov 2006 Bulletin: 1 July 2001 (Forecast)
Dec 2006 Bulletin: 1 August 2001 (Forecast)
Jan 2007 Bulletin: 1 September 2001 (Forecast)
GCStrat: Sorry for hijacking your thread
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To pessimistic ...
texancanadian,
No one can accurately tell you when your August 01 PD will become current but I believe Jan 2008 is a bit to pessimistic at this point. In the absence of any favorable immigration laws this year I think August 2001 should be current by late 2006 (best case) and early 2007 (worst case).
Again, these are all speculations. We will have to wait and see.
BTW - My PD is August 2001 as well. I guess we will both get lucky at the same time (whenever that is)
regards,
saras76
texancanadian said:
texancanadian,
No one can accurately tell you when your August 01 PD will become current but I believe Jan 2008 is a bit to pessimistic at this point. In the absence of any favorable immigration laws this year I think August 2001 should be current by late 2006 (best case) and early 2007 (worst case).
Again, these are all speculations. We will have to wait and see.
BTW - My PD is August 2001 as well. I guess we will both get lucky at the same time (whenever that is)
regards,
saras76
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can anyone predict how rest of the world EB3s are going to move?
Retrogression first hit in october 05 and eversince PDs qre moving at a less than snail pace..
hats off to you guys who wait patiently from 2001..
My 7th yr on H1 kicked in and I do have a super fresh PD of nov/05.
If retrogression is here to stay I look into a super wait of another 7 yrs before I can apply for i-485.
I am not sure if my employer will be simpathetic when the next recession hit. Things loook will be even worse as AC21 is beyond my reach for a situation like that..
Well, time to think about other possibilities..
Retrogression first hit in october 05 and eversince PDs qre moving at a less than snail pace..
hats off to you guys who wait patiently from 2001..
My 7th yr on H1 kicked in and I do have a super fresh PD of nov/05.
If retrogression is here to stay I look into a super wait of another 7 yrs
before I can apply for i-485.I am not sure if my employer will be simpathetic when the next recession hit. Things loook will be even worse as AC21 is beyond my reach for a situation like that..
Well, time to think about other possibilities..
We will see
Well felix nobody can predict anything. But one thing is for sure that they dont have enough cases either from regular EB3 or from 245(i) cases. I can see a plan behind this but for sure they will advance by many folds by july, august or september because they dont want to take the blame of wasting the visa numbers. Those visa numbers will be definitely wasted because of the processing delays at USCIS.
There are several theories and we will see how it goes. I am having a PD of 2002 and still waiting.
Good Luck to all.
Well felix nobody can predict anything. But one thing is for sure that they dont have enough cases either from regular EB3 or from 245(i) cases. I can see a plan behind this but for sure they will advance by many folds by july, august or september because they dont want to take the blame of wasting the visa numbers. Those visa numbers will be definitely wasted because of the processing delays at USCIS.
There are several theories and we will see how it goes. I am having a PD of 2002 and still waiting.
Good Luck to all.
felix31 said:can anyone predict how rest of the world EB3s are going to move?
Retrogression first hit in october 05 and eversince PDs qre moving at a less than snail pace..
hats off to you guys who wait patiently from 2001..
My 7th yr on H1 kicked in and I do have a super fresh PD of nov/05.
If retrogression is here to stay I look into a super wait of another 7 yrs
I am not sure if my employer will be simpathetic when the next recession hit. Things loook will be even worse as AC21 is beyond my reach for a situation like that..
Well, time to think about other possibilities..
kamrans ..
kamrans,
I totally agree with your views. Infact I thought India EB3 would start moving more quickly. Much like you, I am expecting a bit of a jump in EB3 India in summer (July-Aug-Sept) timeframe. I am hoping to see the dates get towards the end of 01. We will indeed have to wait and see what happens in the next 6 months ..
regards,
saras76
kamrans said:
kamrans,
I totally agree with your views. Infact I thought India EB3 would start moving more quickly. Much like you, I am expecting a bit of a jump in EB3 India in summer (July-Aug-Sept) timeframe. I am hoping to see the dates get towards the end of 01. We will indeed have to wait and see what happens in the next 6 months ..
regards,
saras76
texancanadian
Registered Users (C)
We will find out more on how PD's move after the AILA Convention in June in San Antonio. Basically top guys from DOS, DOL, USCIS all attend this seminar and most often then not give a lot of guidance etc to the Immigration Lawyers. They always have someone from DOS who comes and gives an idea of future patterns. Lets wait and watch.
"
04/03/2006: Here I come, San Antonio, Texas
The AILA annual conference will be held in San Antonio from June 21 through June 24, 2006. It is the annual convention of immigration lawyers nationwide, immigration department leaders, State Department officials, Labor Department officials, and other involved entities and orgnizations. This reporter will attend this meeting as he has been doing for over 20 years. Every year, this reporter asked our readers to send him e-mails to indicate the issues which the readers consider critically important at this point of time. Such e-mails help the reporter to focus on the selected issues and try to explore or collect information on the issues. Obviously, the questions should not be related to any individual cases or individual situations. We will convene in the San Antonio Convention Center. This will be the third visit to this city for this reporter. San Antonians, if you see this reporter on the street, please say hello to him! "
"
04/03/2006: Here I come, San Antonio, Texas
The AILA annual conference will be held in San Antonio from June 21 through June 24, 2006. It is the annual convention of immigration lawyers nationwide, immigration department leaders, State Department officials, Labor Department officials, and other involved entities and orgnizations. This reporter will attend this meeting as he has been doing for over 20 years. Every year, this reporter asked our readers to send him e-mails to indicate the issues which the readers consider critically important at this point of time. Such e-mails help the reporter to focus on the selected issues and try to explore or collect information on the issues. Obviously, the questions should not be related to any individual cases or individual situations. We will convene in the San Antonio Convention Center. This will be the third visit to this city for this reporter. San Antonians, if you see this reporter on the street, please say hello to him! "
Guys you have put in a Phenomenol effort to guess the likely movement going forward.
Just one point i would like to make ie when you count the 245i cases and its likely effect on the dates moving forward, remember that more then 85% of those 245i filings are Family based, after you take out the number of cases filed under Employment based Unskilled category the numbers applying under the EB2 and EB3 category would be down by a very wide margin.
Regards.
Just one point i would like to make ie when you count the 245i cases and its likely effect on the dates moving forward, remember that more then 85% of those 245i filings are Family based, after you take out the number of cases filed under Employment based Unskilled category the numbers applying under the EB2 and EB3 category would be down by a very wide margin.
Regards.
245 (i) and its impact -- Some logical analysis
I have done some analysis 5 months back about 245(i) cases and its impact. However this is logical analysis and we all know that logic has nothing to do with DOS or USCIS.
1) There is an estimate of 300,000 cases of 245(i) out of which it is estimated that 90% or more are mexicans which have their own quota. So around 30,000 Principal visa numbers will be needed for the rest of the world other then mexico.
2) There were two options for the 245(i) applicants.. either they can go with the family based or the emplyment based. Family based is easy to apply rather than employment based as USCIS needs a lot of evidences for verification if someone is applying on employment basis. I would say fewer people applied for employment based in comparison to family based.
3) I know personally some people who filed 245(i) and they are approved way back in 2004. So there is no estimate how many dont need the visa numbers. But this number will reduce the number of people still need the visa number.
4) Based on the above facts I would say around 15,000 (rough estimate) visa numbers would be needed for the employment based and they are further sub divided in India, China, Phillipines, all others and EB2, EB3 category.
This doesnt seem much to me. Please comment on it.
Thanks and Good Luck.
I have done some analysis 5 months back about 245(i) cases and its impact. However this is logical analysis and we all know that logic has nothing to do with DOS or USCIS.
1) There is an estimate of 300,000 cases of 245(i) out of which it is estimated that 90% or more are mexicans which have their own quota. So around 30,000 Principal visa numbers will be needed for the rest of the world other then mexico.
2) There were two options for the 245(i) applicants.. either they can go with the family based or the emplyment based. Family based is easy to apply rather than employment based as USCIS needs a lot of evidences for verification if someone is applying on employment basis. I would say fewer people applied for employment based in comparison to family based.
3) I know personally some people who filed 245(i) and they are approved way back in 2004. So there is no estimate how many dont need the visa numbers. But this number will reduce the number of people still need the visa number.
4) Based on the above facts I would say around 15,000 (rough estimate) visa numbers would be needed for the employment based and they are further sub divided in India, China, Phillipines, all others and EB2, EB3 category.
This doesnt seem much to me. Please comment on it.
Thanks and Good Luck.
blondhenge
Registered Users (C)
Eb-3
Murthy just posted this on her weekly update today (the link is: http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html )
High Demand in EB3 Expected to Continue
The DOS states that cutoff date movement will slow or stop when the dates reach the point where there is a high level of demand. This has happened in the employment-based, third preference category (EB3). The DOS states that demand for immigrant visa numbers during the month of March 2006 was expected to exceed the total for the previous three months. The EB3 dates continue to be in the span when many cases were filed, trying to meet the April 30, 2001 deadline under the LIFE Act / 245(i), to take advantage of certain provisions for those who had no legal status in the U.S.
Is anybody aware of when the DOS put out this 'update'? There was nothing like that mentioned in the recent visa bulletin.
Murthy just posted this on her weekly update today (the link is: http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html )
High Demand in EB3 Expected to Continue
The DOS states that cutoff date movement will slow or stop when the dates reach the point where there is a high level of demand. This has happened in the employment-based, third preference category (EB3). The DOS states that demand for immigrant visa numbers during the month of March 2006 was expected to exceed the total for the previous three months. The EB3 dates continue to be in the span when many cases were filed, trying to meet the April 30, 2001 deadline under the LIFE Act / 245(i), to take advantage of certain provisions for those who had no legal status in the U.S.
Is anybody aware of when the DOS put out this 'update'? There was nothing like that mentioned in the recent visa bulletin.
some more calculations
Guys and Gals
This is what I had indicated earlier. More below that:
===========================================
This is my speculation on 245(i) cases:
70% = Mexico/Latin America
10% = Europe
15% = Asia
5% = Canada/ Australia/ Africa
Total 245(i) cases were around 300K, so
1) at 5% of Total for India, this makes for only 15K cases.
2) at 10% of total for India, this makes for only 30K cases.
Not a whole lot (it is less than the yearly EB based LPRs issued for India), you agree. Again, no "real" reason for retrogression for EB3 India to be in dinosaur age.
==================================
I trying to do soem more scenarios. We all keep saying there were 300K 245(i) cases. I haven't seen any definitive number as yet on this. What if the total number is actually more - say, like 400K or 500K ?
If this is the case, the expected demand are close to annual COUNTRY limits. Hence the "snail's" pace of EB3 movements.
Regards
GCStrat
Guys and Gals
This is what I had indicated earlier. More below that:
===========================================
This is my speculation on 245(i) cases:
70% = Mexico/Latin America
10% = Europe
15% = Asia
5% = Canada/ Australia/ Africa
Total 245(i) cases were around 300K, so
1) at 5% of Total for India, this makes for only 15K cases.
2) at 10% of total for India, this makes for only 30K cases.
Not a whole lot (it is less than the yearly EB based LPRs issued for India), you agree. Again, no "real" reason for retrogression for EB3 India to be in dinosaur age.
==================================
I trying to do soem more scenarios. We all keep saying there were 300K 245(i) cases. I haven't seen any definitive number as yet on this. What if the total number is actually more - say, like 400K or 500K ?
If this is the case, the expected demand are close to annual COUNTRY limits. Hence the "snail's" pace of EB3 movements.
Regards
GCStrat