Retrogression: Doing the MATH- I-485 EB backlog estimates

G

gcstrat

Registered Users (C)
Guys and Gals

Total I-485 backlog for all countries, all categories is between 141K to 157K as of March 2006.
===========================================

Here (enclosed Excel) are three scenarios for the likely backlog in EB - i-485 across all countries all categories.

This is what I have done:

1)I started with Jan 2005 EB based I-485 backlog number (source: President's Economic Report-2005)
2) From the USCIS Immigration Monthly Statistics (whichever months I could find), I noted the monthly receipts for I-485 (column K). For months, I could not find the data, I have assumed likely numbers. Since this contains both FB and EB based numbers, based on the backlog as of Jan 2005, I calculated the EB to FB backlog ratio. EB backlog was 24.3% of the total backlog. I rounded it higher to 25% for ease of calculations.
I applied this ratio to the Monthly Receipts to get the EB portion of receipts.
3) I used the historical (2002 to 2004) EB1 to EB2 to EB3 to other ratio to distribute the monthly EB receipts into various categories.
4) Using the Visa Bulletin, I adjusted the EB3 number to ZERO for months EB3 was unavailable. During those months, I increased the EB-1 and EB-2 numbers by 50%.
5) Since October 2005, I have kept EB1 and EB2 at their historical levels, but changed the EB3 levels to 50%, 75% and 100% - giving us three scenarios.
6)Finally we get the estimates at the end of March 2006.

Total I-485 backlog for all countries, all categories is between 141K to 157K.

Your feedback is highly appreciated. I will try to incorporate inputs which I may have missed.

Regards
GCStrat :)

PS: A few months ago, Akela had done some calculations and he had come up with a lower number of 73K for EB I-485. My numbers were higher than his. Even after this round of "new" calculations, my estimates are at twice what Akela had got.
 
GCstrat,

Does the number 141K to 157K include the people who have their I-140 approved, but not yet applied for I-485/EAD?

Thanks..

Sincerely,
Raj

gcstrat said:
Guys and Gals

Total I-485 backlog for all countries, all categories is between 141K to 157K as of March 2006.
===========================================

Here (enclosed Excel) are three scenarios for the likely backlog in EB - i-485 across all countries all categories.

This is what I have done:

1)I started with Jan 2005 EB based I-485 backlog number (source: President's Economic Report-2005)
2) From the USCIS Immigration Monthly Statistics (whichever months I could find), I noted the monthly receipts for I-485 (column K). For months, I could not find the data, I have assumed likely numbers. Since this contains both FB and EB based numbers, based on the backlog as of Jan 2005, I calculated the EB to FB backlog ratio. EB backlog was 24.3% of the total backlog. I rounded it higher to 25% for ease of calculations.
I applied this ratio to the Monthly Receipts to get the EB portion of receipts.
3) I used the historical (2002 to 2004) EB1 to EB2 to EB3 to other ratio to distribute the monthly EB receipts into various categories.
4) Using the Visa Bulletin, I adjusted the EB3 number to ZERO for months EB3 was unavailable. During those months, I increased the EB-1 and EB-2 numbers by 50%.
5) Since October 2005, I have kept EB1 and EB2 at their historical levels, but changed the EB3 levels to 50%, 75% and 100% - giving us three scenarios.
6)Finally we get the estimates at the end of March 2006.

Total I-485 backlog for all countries, all categories is between 141K to 157K.

Your feedback is highly appreciated. I will try to incorporate inputs which I may have missed.

Regards
GCStrat :)

PS: A few months ago, Akela had done some calculations and he had come up with a lower number of 73K for EB I-485. My numbers were higher than his. Even after this round of "new" calculations, my estimates are at twice what Akela had got.
Click to expand...
 
I saw each month 20,195 are processed. With the visa number deeply retrogressed, is this possible?

gcstrat said:
Guys and Gals

Total I-485 backlog for all countries, all categories is between 141K to 157K as of March 2006.
===========================================

Here (enclosed Excel) are three scenarios for the likely backlog in EB - i-485 across all countries all categories.

This is what I have done:

1)I started with Jan 2005 EB based I-485 backlog number (source: President's Economic Report-2005)
2) From the USCIS Immigration Monthly Statistics (whichever months I could find), I noted the monthly receipts for I-485 (column K). For months, I could not find the data, I have assumed likely numbers. Since this contains both FB and EB based numbers, based on the backlog as of Jan 2005, I calculated the EB to FB backlog ratio. EB backlog was 24.3% of the total backlog. I rounded it higher to 25% for ease of calculations.
I applied this ratio to the Monthly Receipts to get the EB portion of receipts.
3) I used the historical (2002 to 2004) EB1 to EB2 to EB3 to other ratio to distribute the monthly EB receipts into various categories.
4) Using the Visa Bulletin, I adjusted the EB3 number to ZERO for months EB3 was unavailable. During those months, I increased the EB-1 and EB-2 numbers by 50%.
5) Since October 2005, I have kept EB1 and EB2 at their historical levels, but changed the EB3 levels to 50%, 75% and 100% - giving us three scenarios.
6)Finally we get the estimates at the end of March 2006.

Total I-485 backlog for all countries, all categories is between 141K to 157K.

Your feedback is highly appreciated. I will try to incorporate inputs which I may have missed.

Regards
GCStrat :)

PS: A few months ago, Akela had done some calculations and he had come up with a lower number of 73K for EB I-485. My numbers were higher than his. Even after this round of "new" calculations, my estimates are at twice what Akela had got.
Click to expand...
 
Some answers

Raj: No, the numbers do NOT include people who have not yet filed their I-485.

Atl_FP: Valid question. Teh rate of 20195 per month was the rate at which USCIS approved EB based I-485 in FY 2005. I have assumed the same. Yes, a different rate will affect the numbers.

However, one point to note, in FY 2005, USCIS approved 242,335 EB based I-485. Which means the 141K to 157K number is 7-8 months equivalent of work.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
I am new and didn't follow it up closely. May I ask, where did you get the 141 - 151K numbers from?
 
Refer to Excel attachment

Belacut

Please refer to the Excel attachment in my original post.
It has the details.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
thanks Gcstrat, I really appreciate your response..

Sincerely,
Raj

gcstrat said:
Raj: No, the numbers do NOT include people who have not yet filed their I-485.

Atl_FP: Valid question. Teh rate of 20195 per month was the rate at which USCIS approved EB based I-485 in FY 2005. I have assumed the same. Yes, a different rate will affect the numbers.

However, one point to note, in FY 2005, USCIS approved 242,335 EB based I-485. Which means the 141K to 157K number is 7-8 months equivalent of work.

Regards
GCStrat :)
Click to expand...
 
More Insights

Guys and Gals

Some more thoughts:

My point is that based on current I-485 applications filed, other than 7-8 month backlog, there is no basis for retrogression.

However, USCIS is harping on "Expected Demand" which in my view is unlikely to materialize fast. Here's why:

There are 255,000 applications backlogged in BECs as of March 17, 2006.
Let's assume three scenarios. BECs eliminate this backlog in 12 months, 24 months or 36 months.

Which means, BECs processing rate is
if within 12 months = 255,000 / 12 = 21,250 per month
if within 24 months = 255,000 / 24 = 10,625 per month
if within 36 months = 255,000 / 36 = 7,083 per month

After BEC completes labor, remember these guys have to complete the process the old way - i.e. do advertisements, job interviews, etc. This will add an average of 3 months to the process.

After this they have to file I-140. Add another 6 months to that. This basically means, it is an average 9 month lag after BEC approves Labor.

We know that BECs have processed 108,000 applications in past 12 months i.e. about 9,000 cases per month. At this rate, processing of the entire backlog will take about 28 months to clear.

Currently, cases cleared about 9 months ago are hitting USCIS at the rate of 9,000 per month OR LESS. USCIS in FY 2005 operated at 20195 cases per month. This means about 45% OR LESS of cases "hitting" USCIS are from BECs.

MY speculation # 1 is that actual cases hitting USCIS is LOWER than 9K per month from BEC, mainly because of EB3 retro. May explain why NSC has announced it will continue adjudicating filed I-485 cases. Basically, they do not have work.

MY speculation # 2 is USCIS by keeping the EB3 dates for countries other than India at May 1, 2001 wants to clear EB3 Rest of World, Mexico, etc. FIRST since they have crossed the threshold April 30, 2001 date.

Which may also imply (my speculation # 3) that BECs may be working on 245(i) cases rather than regular EB cases.

Which brings us back to the point when will the expected demand materialize. My take is not very likely in the near future.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
Why is India EB3 not moving ?

gcstrat,
I have made this point in another thread also. Every country has a quota isn't it. Please include that in any calculation. Of the 149,000 visa numbers available in FY2006, India has 7% quota or 10430. Of this about 28.6% belongs to EB3. Which further reduces the number to 2983.

With about 1/2 the year being completed now do u think 1400 India EB3 cases got approved ?

245(i) should have no bearing on India/china cases at all. They should have an effect on Mexico the most. But Mexico is actually ahead of India in EB-3 PD.
 
gcstat

EB2 was current until 1st oct 2005. Hence only those people who received thair labor approval (through PERM or non PERM) after 1st Oct 2005 must be waiting to apply for I485.

DOL had reported this month that in last one year:

Backlog Cases Certified: 50,000
PERM Certified: 36,587

So based on these statistics from 86587 labor approved a lot of them must have applied for I 485 before 1st Oct 2005. So any guesses on how many of these 86587 are EB2 cases still waiting to apply for I 485 under EB2 category for India.
 
Country limits and other issues

Some answers

AGC4ME:

7% country limits are "breached" due to two factors - overflow of unutilized family based VISA numbers (remember in FY 2005, USCIS adjudicated 242,335 EB cases, even though the annual limit is 140,000) and secondly due to overflow within the same categories across countries (example, excess EB2 for Surinam being available to other countries instead for flowing to EB3 Surinam)

Why Mexico ahead of India - read my Speculation # 2 & #3 in my earlier post.

ASIANDUDE:

The ACTUAL number of receipts for I-485 for BOTH FB and EB in SEPTEMBER 2005 (i.e. before 1 st October 2005) is 50,414. My estimate is that during SEPTEMBER 2005, 4,235 EB2 and 3,687 EB1 cases were filed for all countries. The rate of filing for EB1 and EB2 for the months of July, August and September has been assumed at 150% of the rate of pre-July 2005 levels.

We do not know what percentage of that was India.

Cases waiting to be filed (re: PERM): In one year March 2005 to March 2006, USCIS received 80,272 cases making it an average of 6,689 cases per month. Of these they have COMPLETED adjudication (i.e. denials+approvals) for 59,892 cases or nearly 75% of those filed.

We know definitely 20,380 cases are yet to be processed. So, they could not have filed their I-485.
Also, we know 23,305 cases were denied. So, they could not have filed for their I-485.
We also, know 1,950 cases were withdrawn. So, they could not have filed for their I-485.
That leaves a possible 36,587 cases that could have filed for I-485. Assuming the same average monthly rate, half of these cases must have been after October 1, 2005 i.e. 18,293 cases.

EB2 India from this pool were be a lower number than this.
Assuming 25% of all PERM cases are from INDIA, we have a total India number at 4,573.
IF Assuming 50% of those numbers are EB2, we have 2,286 EB2 people from India
IF Assuming 33.33% are EB2, the number is 1,525.

Hope this helps.


Regards,
GCStrat :)
 
Regarding your speculation # 2:

I do not think USCIS and DOS is in that level of corporation. USCIS actually wants EB3 word to move so that they can process more cases in a smoother way. However DOS has primary went to sleep because they think EB3 has crossed April 30 and there is no need to move any more because of 245i. I think they are just waiting for 245i to come.


gcstrat said:
Some answers

AGC4ME:

7% country limits are "breached" due to two factors - overflow of unutilized family based VISA numbers (remember in FY 2005, USCIS adjudicated 242,335 EB cases, even though the annual limit is 140,000) and secondly due to overflow within the same categories across countries (example, excess EB2 for Surinam being available to other countries instead for flowing to EB3 Surinam)

Why Mexico ahead of India - read my Speculation # 2 & #3 in my earlier post.

ASIANDUDE:

The ACTUAL number of receipts for I-485 for BOTH FB and EB in SEPTEMBER 2005 (i.e. before 1 st October 2005) is 50,414. My estimate is that during SEPTEMBER 2005, 4,235 EB2 and 3,687 EB1 cases were filed for all countries. The rate of filing for EB1 and EB2 for the months of July, August and September has been assumed at 150% of the rate of pre-July 2005 levels.

We do not know what percentage of that was India.

Cases waiting to be filed (re: PERM): In one year March 2005 to March 2006, USCIS received 80,272 cases making it an average of 6,689 cases per month. Of these they have COMPLETED adjudication (i.e. denials+approvals) for 59,892 cases or nearly 75% of those filed.

We know definitely 20,380 cases are yet to be processed. So, they could not have filed their I-485.
Also, we know 23,305 cases were denied. So, they could not have filed for their I-485.
We also, know 1,950 cases were withdrawn. So, they could not have filed for their I-485.
That leaves a possible 36,587 cases that could have filed for I-485. Assuming the same average monthly rate, half of these cases must have been after October 1, 2005 i.e. 18,293 cases.

EB2 India from this pool were be a lower number than this.
Assuming 25% of all PERM cases are from INDIA, we have a total India number at 4,573.
IF Assuming 50% of those numbers are EB2, we have 2,286 EB2 people from India
IF Assuming 33.33% are EB2, the number is 1,525.

Hope this helps.


Regards,
GCStrat :)
Click to expand...
 
GCStrat

I apologize but I still do not get the basis for your assumption regarding why Mexico is ahead of India. USCIS shouldn't keep dates for the rest of world, India, China etc at a certain level just to clear the backlog. If they estimate an avalanche of 2001 cases due to 245(i), they should also estimate the countries they will fall under, namely Rest of the world, Mexico, Phillipines and in that order.

Hence they should continue to process India from where 245(i) cases are going to be rare. They just cannot keep the dates tied in the hope that BECs would continue to churn out EB3s from India with PDs prior to the already established date. Then the dates will never move as BECs have hundreds of thousands of cases to adjudicate and the VISA numbers get wasted.

Or does USCIS even think this way ?
 
My theories ...

Guys and Gals,

gcstrat has done a good job with the numbers and they make sense at most levels. We should all remember that we are all guessing at this point and none of us can really explain why the dates for EB3 India are not moving. Having been in this system for over 4 years now and following trends fairly closely I have come up with the following reasoning for the retrogression.

The most obvious reason for this retrogression is the projected 245i cases that are stuck in the BECs. However, I believe that 245i is now being used as an excuse to continue retrogression. Beleive it or not but the DOS and USCIS has a game plan ... so what is the game plan .. I think it is the following ..

1. When PDs were current over the past few years the USCIS did not follow any protocol. They ingnored older cases, approved earlier cases and basically created a big mess. This retrogression is being continued to give each of the centers an opportunity to clean house. They are using this time to make sure that ALL of the really old PDs for EB3 (early 2001 and before) get approved. In a way this is a good thing but it is being done in a very irresponsible way. We are being made to pay for mistakes that the USCIS made over the past few years.

2. With the introduction of PERM, DOS and USCIS knows that labor certs will be completed in record time and they will be flooded with 140 apps and then 485 apps if PDs were current. Knowing that there are thousands of old labor cases stuck in the BECs, they are using retro to prevent PERM cases from filing. They are buying time so that older EB3s stuck in the BECs get approved. I believe the plan is to complete all old Labor cases before they start afresh with PERM cases. This makes sense at some level ..

3. While all this is happening the DOS and USCIS are moving to eliminate labor subs. Since this may take time they are continuing retro so as to prevent thousands upon thousands of people using labor subs from late 2001 and early 2002. This also makes sense.

4. I am sure most of you must have heard of the bi-specialization procedure that USCIS has come up with. This process is where EB cases will be processed by TSC and NSC while other cases will be processed by VSC and CSC. In order to implement this in an orderly manner they have frozen new apps via retro. They are making sure that all pending cases get transferred to the right offices before newer cases flood the system. Through retro they have frozen new cases from filing and have ensured that when they do file they will use the new bi-spec filing procedure.

Earlier I thought that there was no reason for this retro but the more I have reasearched, the more I am beginning to see the hidden reasons that are not being shared with us. All of the above reasons tied together explain why there is such deep retro ...

regards,

saras76
 
Last edited by a moderator:
One more shot..

Remember: Logic and political complusions do not make strange bed-fellows. Applying logic is not something we generally associate USCIS with.

AGC4ME:

All the mathematics indicate one thing and the USCIS retrogression dates indicate another. What does that mean? Mathematically, there is no basis for retrogression but we have this stupid retrogression for every country in Eb3 and for India/China in EB1/2.

Why?

USCIS is expecting 9K to 20K cases from BECs - we know the BEC average has been 9K. And it is expecting these to be 245(i) cases and for GOOD POLITICAL reasons/ pressures, it wants to clear those CASES fast. Other than that there is no apparent reason for the stupidities we are seeing.

Atl_fp:

Counsular processing is under Dept of State (DOS). I-485 adjudication is under USCIS. Both have to coordinate regarding the use of VISA numbers. For FB based processing, most of that is Counsular processing. Depending on how DOS adjudicates - approvals, denies,etc., USCIS is in dark about the OVERFLOW numbers from FB to EB. Also percentage of EB based I-485 where people opt for counsular processing affects what USCIS has to work with.
I agree they are not in sync.
But BECs are under USCIS. I would presume, they would have a better handle on that. Forecasting based on data from BEC would be definitely better than assuming some expected demand.


Regards
GCStrat :)
 
gcstrat,

BEC's are not under USCIS. They are under DOL.

Are we quite sure that there are not that many 245(i) cases for India. Are there any stats out there, how can we be so sure. There are many Indians who may have filed LC's for cooks, waiters, mechanics, store clerks etc. I dont think we can totally discount that without supporting numnbers or documentation.
 
I am sure there are Indians in 245i

texancanadian said:
gcstrat,

BEC's are not under USCIS. They are under DOL.

Are we quite sure that there are not that many 245(i) cases for India. Are there any stats out there, how can we be so sure. There are many Indians who may have filed LC's for cooks, waiters, mechanics, store clerks etc. I dont think we can totally discount that without supporting numnbers or documentation.
Click to expand...

taxancanadian,

I am sure there are Indians in the 245i category but the majority are probably Mexican. I don't think there is any way for us to find out the per country breakdown of 245i cases. No one (including the DOS) has any clue.

regards,

saras76
 
Saras76

Your theory was what I believed when they first retrogressed June 2005. Infact Murthy.com alluded to your theory in an oblique way. What they said was retrogression is being brought in so that USCIS can get a handle on the pending cases. But then in October, November and December the PD moved 1Yr, 6mos and 6Mos. So I was confident that USCIS did indeed figured out what the numbers were. But the past few months have dented my confidence.

As for the 245(i) cases from India, there is bound to me some. But majority, and I am going to hazard a guess of around 90% should be from LA countries.
 
Indian 245i cases

saras76 said:
I am sure there are Indians in the 245i category but the majority are probably Mexican. I don't think there is any way for us to find out the per country breakdown of 245i cases. No one (including the DOS) has any clue.

regards,

saras76
Click to expand...

The way PD for EB3 India is lagging behind PD for EB3 Mexico suggests that there are more Indian 245i cases with PD earlier than the Mexican 245i cases!

PD for EB3 for other countries is stuck at 1May2001 in the last few months; This indicates that there are substantial number of 245i cases for other countries as well!!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top