Reality check for EB3 India ...

[saras76]

Guys and Gals,

If the July bulletin hasn't slapped some reality into us then nothing will. I think the following are realistic expectations for the remainder of this year (ends Sept 06) for the different PDs within India.

India PDs before April 30 2001 - I believe your dates will become current by atleast the Sept 06 bulletin.

India PDs between May-June-July 2001 - There is an outside chance that you may become current in Sept 06 if there aren't a rush of PDs from April 01. At this point the chances are 50-50.

India PDs July-August-Sept - If India EB3 moves past April 2001 by Sept 06 then there is a chance this group may become current by December 06.

India PDs Oct-Nov-Dec - If the above scenario comes true then there is a chance that you might become current in early 07.

BIG HURDLE - The one thing that can throw all of the above into a loop is if the prediction of thousands of labor apps getting approved in Sept-Dec 06 and making their way to USCIS comes true. I firmly believe that most of these cases are with PDs from 2002 and beyond and a lot of these folks have reverted to PERM but if the flood does occur then the DOS and USCIS will freeze all dates and may even throw the dates back to April 01 for most EB3 categories till they are able to get a handle on the situation. This process may take 3-6 months and during this time the dates may become static once again.

India PDs 2002 - If the big hurdle never occurs then there is hope for you towards the middle or end of fiscal year 07 that ends in Sept 07. If the hurdle does occur then you can forget about 07 altogether.

India PDs 2003 and beyond - Hurdle or not, I don't see any relief till 2008 and beyond.

The only thing that can change all of this is an immigration bill with favorable provisions. The current CIR seems deadlocked and I wouldn't put to much hope on its approval.

The bottom line is that EB3 India is screwed in the short-term(2-3 years). Either way you look at it, there really is nothing to be happy about. Its a grim outlook but better be realistic than foolharty.

regards,

saras

 

[hkhr]

Thats great analysis.

And even if CIR is approved tommorow. It will take 6-9 months for USCIS to implement it. So essentially, Its 1st Quarter of 07, where some good movement "should" happen.

I "really wish", if USCIS can implement in "6-9 weeks" instead of months.
It will be a big relief for all of us.

 

[Dallas03096]

We will get GC when we are destined to get it

Saras
In my opinion, there is no point in analyzing and reanalyzing the situation everymonth. We will get it when we are destined to get it.

Retrogression is a cycle which keeps repeating from time to time. The pendulum may swing back and forth a few times before it crosses our PD. Let us wait patiently

 

[indianindian]

Help

Saras,

What is your opinion for movements in EB2.

 

[saras76]

Patience is the problem ...

Saras
In my opinion, there is no point in analyzing and reanalyzing the situation everymonth. We will get it when we are destined to get it.

Retrogression is a cycle which keeps repeating from time to time. The pendulum may swing back and forth a few times before it crosses our PD. Let us wait patiently

Dallas03096,

I totally agree with you my friend but its easier said than done. I ran out of patience a long time ago. Analyzing and reanalyzing is my messed up way to convince myself that I need to wait even longer .... besides, it helps kill hours at my boring job

regards,

saras

 

[CoolTiger]

Let me put it simply...
If you r India EB3 after Apr30,01 brace up for a wait of a couple of years and make your choices accordingly.....Its always better to prepare for the worst and hope for the best!
The only thing that comes to mind is if after this fiscal year when the actual nbrs r published it turns out that they have wasted visa numbers that would SUCK big time! But somehow I'm inclined to think that's a possibilty bcoz nobody gives a f*****k!

 

[diOxide]

Patience..Pain..Panacea

Analysis do not really hurt..and they prepare us for any eventuality and plan approximately.
Patience is a virtue which does ultimately pay.
However over here
Pain being inflicted out of unending patience and wait is becoming panacea.
(Mirza Ghalib !.)
It has begun to numb.
Now the point is what am I going to do :
For starters I am moving away from Hostage(H) visa to EAD.
And I am going to make more money.
And I am going to watch every Visa Bull ...with grin.

 

[PHSESAaug]

October 2006 doesn't hold any promise

1) There are a lot more 245(i) from India than you guys think - We are behind mexico folks, how can that happen if there are fewer people in the queue?

2) If USCIS fears a 245(i) flood now they should fear it even more come October 2006 as more 245(I)'s come out of the BEC.

I plan to use AC21 after watching the October bulletin ie Sep 15th.

 

[saras76]

245i's

1) There are a lot more 245(i) from India than you guys think - We are behind mexico folks, how can that happen if there are fewer people in the queue?

2) If USCIS fears a 245(i) flood now they should fear it even more come October 2006 as more 245(I)'s come out of the BEC.

I plan to use AC21 after watching the October bulletin ie Sep 15th.

PHSESAaug,

You are assuming that the DOS and USCIS actually know the country allocation of 245i cases. You are giving them to much credit. I am not saying that there aren't any 245is from India but out of the 300,000 supposed 245i's about 10% are probably Indian if that.

The reason for India EB3 lagging behind everyone is the projected high demand of visas for India. DOS and USCIS are relying on historical data to predict that visas for EB3 India will run out quickly in fiscal year 06. They are slowly moving the dates so as to test out how many exactly are there. Each month they move India by a month and this month since its in April they have moved it half a month. Its almost like reaching into a pool of water to see exactly how hot or cold it is before jumping straight into it. The USCIS and DOS are reluctant to move India EB3 dates any faster than the current rate because they fear a flood of inquiries from India EB3 applicants that will become current according to their historical data analysis. The truth is that there aren't that many non-245i India EB3's from 2001 that are still pending but the USCIS and DOS is not taking any chances. I am almost certain that this is case.

The next few bulletins will inch thru April 2001. If a lot of India EB3 cases become current and take up visas then we will be stuck in April 01 for a while. If India EB3 crosses April 01 in the next few months then we will know that they were being cautious.

The problem is that there current caution will screw us over when the backlogged labor cases do hit the system. Since its hurricane season, a funny thought came to my mind to help explain the ridiculous ways of the DOS and USCIS ... think about this ..

If the USCIS and DOS were incharge of evacuating a city being threated by a hurricane in say 4 days, they would go ahead and block most of the roads and open just one lane for everyone to evacuate. They want an orderly evacuation and hence would implement this stupid strategy .. in our case, 245i's, pending labors are the hurricane, the visa numbers are the highways to get out of the mess and the one open lane is retrogression ... hahahahahha DO YOU THINK WE WILL MAKE IT OUT OF THE STORM ... ???

regards,

saras

 

[marlon2006]

Saras, what's your prediction for EB3 World ?

PHSESAaug,

You are assuming that the DOS and USCIS actually know the country allocation of 245i cases. You are giving them to much credit. I am not saying that there aren't any 245is from India but out of the 300,000 supposed 245i's about 10% are probably Indian if that.

The reason for India EB3 lagging behind everyone is the projected high demand of visas for India. DOS and USCIS are relying on historical data to predict that visas for EB3 India will run out quickly in fiscal year 06. They are slowly moving the dates so as to test out how many exactly are there. Each month they move India by a month and this month since its in April they have moved it half a month. Its almost like reaching into a pool of water to see exactly how hot or cold it is before jumping straight into it. The USCIS and DOS are reluctant to move India EB3 dates any faster than the current rate because they fear a flood of inquiries from India EB3 applicants that will become current according to their historical data analysis. The truth is that there aren't that many non-245i India EB3's from 2001 that are still pending but the USCIS and DOS is not taking any chances. I am almost certain that this is case.

The next few bulletins will inch thru April 2001. If a lot of India EB3 cases become current and take up visas then we will be stuck in April 01 for a while. If India EB3 crosses April 01 in the next few months then we will know that they were being cautious.

The problem is that there current caution will screw us over when the backlogged labor cases do hit the system. Since its hurricane season, a funny thought came to my mind to help explain the ridiculous ways of the DOS and USCIS ... think about this ..

If the USCIS and DOS were incharge of evacuating a city being threated by a hurricane in say 4 days, they would go ahead and block most of the roads and open just one lane for everyone to evacuate. They want an orderly evacuation and hence would implement this stupid strategy .. in our case, 245i's, pending labors are the hurricane, the visa numbers are the highways to get out of the mess and the one open lane is retrogression ... hahahahahha DO YOU THINK WE WILL MAKE IT OUT OF THE STORM ... ???

regards,

saras

 

[saras76]

EB3 world will continue to move a few months ..

Saras, what's your prediction for EB3 World ?

marlon,

I think EB3 world will reach the end of 01 and maybe even early 02 by the Sept Bulletin. This is based on the past few bulletins.

regards,

saras

 

[GC_TRAP]

EB-3 older PDs may be larger than all our expectations!

One thing though that I would add and seems obvious to me, regardless of previous analysis and statistical calculations done by many, is that there is bound to be a huge pool of EB-3 applicants from India which makes EB-3 crawl to it's knees.

Everyone seems to agree, more or less, that there are not enough 245(i)'s from India to warrant this slowness. Well, either DoS is truly sinister and is single-handedly targeting Indians (mainly EB-3, mind you) or that there are truly thousands of EB-3 applicants waiting to get processed.

I tend to believe in the latter. I come across dozens and dozens of Indians who will tell you that most of them are EB-3. So, I believe that most Indian applicants are EB-3 and since we came in truckloads between 1996 through 2003 or so, I wouldn't be surprised if there are still a lot of EB-3 candidates out there from India with PD's in 2000, early 2001.

Of course, nobody has exact figures and nobody will ever know but that would be the only one REAL reason that would justify DoS's behavior.

 

[saras76]

True but ...

One thing though that I would add and seems obvious to me, regardless of previous analysis and statistical calculations done by many, is that there is bound to be a huge pool of EB-3 applicants from India which makes EB-3 crawl to it's knees.

Everyone seems to agree, more or less, that there are not enough 245(i)'s from India to warrant this slowness. Well, either DoS is truly sinister and is single-handedly targeting Indians (mainly EB-3, mind you) or that there are truly thousands of EB-3 applicants waiting to get processed.

I tend to believe in the latter. I come across dozens and dozens of Indians who will tell you that most of them are EB-3. So, I believe that most Indian applicants are EB-3 and since we came in truckloads between 1996 through 2003 or so, I wouldn't be surprised if there are still a lot of EB-3 candidates out there from India with PD's in 2000, early 2001.

Of course, nobody has exact figures and nobody will ever know but that would be the only one REAL reason that would justify DoS's behavior.

GC_TRAP,

Yes there are thousdands upon thousands of us with PDs prior to 01 but 85% of those have been approved. I am a 2001 filer and having followed the fate of 2001 EB3 PDs from India for over 3 years now I found that atleast 70-80% of those have also been approved. Now it is possible that the remaining 10-20% of EB3 Indias prior to 01 may be enough to use up all the visas. That is possible and is probably the case. If the visas were completely used up then India EB3 would become unavailable, that has not happened.

regards,

saras