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REAL chance of winning

J

jayo2k

Registered Users (C)
here are the real chances of winning based on last year entries numbers & selected. I used a sample of 9 countries (3 of europe, asia & africa).
Thoses plus Ukraine, nigeria & Bangladesh (because they have a lesser chance).
Thoses stats are way more accurate than the BS someone posted on wikipedia based on NOTHING...

Country ----- Entries ----- Selected ----- Calculated percentage

France ----- 27 360 ----- 767 ----- 2.803362573099415%
Finland ----- 2 656 ----- 87 ---- 3.275602409638554%
Denmark ----- 2 394 ------ 66 ----- 2.756892230576441%

Angola ----- 1 039 ----- 55 ----- 5.293551491819057%
Cameroon ----- 130 072 ----- 3674 ----- 2.82458945814625%
Ivory Coast ----- 29 273 ----- 759 ----- 2.59283298602808%

Bahrain ----- 1 920 ----- 15 ----- 0.78125%
Lebanon ----- 12 846 ----- 214 ----- 1.665888214230111%
Syria ----- 7 092 ----- 132 ----- 1.861252115059222%

Ukraine ----- 723 972 ----- 6000 ----- 0.828761333311233%
Bangladesh ----- 5 418 800 ----- 5999 ----- 0.1107071676385916%
Nigeria ----- 1 634 692 ----- 6000 ----- 0.3670416200727721%

As seen, chances are not equal even from the same region, with usualy the country with lesser entries getting more chances... from my aditional calculations, i found out that in africa, countries with less than 1 500 entries usualy get between 4 to 5%.
High entries countries participans have a very slim chance that is why sometimes you see peoples applying for 10 years without winning... so the former 2012 selected from low percentage countries have a good reason being mad because they might have seen their only chance vanishing just like that...
Some people on this forum (apparently baned) were making fun of them for being mad but with the chance they got, they have all the right being mad because they were applying for years, found out they won, been so exited, sent the forms & then "sorry our bad you lost... but we won't refund you the money our error made you spend, see you on july 15"... Although it was the fairness action to take, understand thoses from low percentage countries...
 
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You are comparing apples to oranges.
For instance, for Angola there are 55 winners including family members, but 1039 entries (not including family members). You are trying to divide 55 by 1039 that makes no sense.
Your second terrible mistake is you are ignoring rule #1 of DV lottery - that all entries within the same region have equal chance to be selected.

Those two crucial mistakes lead to incorrect results.
 
Clearely you do not know what the hell you are talking about...
this is the participants, deriviatives has a special status... they have the deriviatives status meaning they can't pursue any further... this is the applicants that can pursue further... you are just trying to have the last word but you are dead wrong... callculate the total & you will find :
51 004 for africa
14 999 for asia
30 999 for europe
18 for north america
1 600 for oceania
2 001 for central & latin america
now combined that makes : 100 621 selected... Now mister I know it all, during the interview, the KCC said 22 000 peoples knew their status + their deriviatives so in reality more than 22k, he didn't say 22k including deriviatives knew their status"...
that mean they select main aplication, not deriviatives... & here another mistake you made in your superb wikipedia false article... you said that among the selected, Senegal have the lowest percentage of getting a visa with 14%... WRONG again, angola has 12%... 55 selected & only 7 visa...
I never saw someone as hard headed as you... All you do is making up fact with no data at all, it's just something that come in your brain that somehow you think it is real... YOU DO NOT HAVE NO CLUE OF WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT...


raevsky said:
You are comparing apples to oranges.
For instance, for Angola there are 55 winners including family members, but 1039 entries (not including family members). You are trying to divide 55 by 1039 that makes no sense.
Your second terrible mistake is you are ignoring rule #1 of DV lottery - that all entries within the same region have equal chance to be selected.

Those two crucial mistakes lead to incorrect results.
Click to expand...

- that all entries within the same region have equal chance to be selected
Click to expand...
Use your brain for once... I know it can hurt thinking, & you want to avoid a headeache but when you use the OFFICIALS number, you find out that the chances are not the same... You have the number under your blind eyes but still, you act like a dummy...
You allready did enough damage by LYING on wikipedia, do not come here & spread your errors
 
now combined that makes : 100 621 selected...
Click to expand...
Those are including family members, Mr. I know nothing and do not want to know anything.
Now mister I know it all, during the interview, the KCC said 22 000 peoples knew their status + their deriviatives so in reality more than 22k, he didn't say 22k including deriviatives knew their status"...
Click to expand...
But those 22000 are just entrants, that means not including family members, Mr. I know nothing and do not want to know anything.

that mean they select main aplication, not deriviatives... & here another mistake you made in your superb wikipedia false article... you said that among the selected, Senegal have the lowest percentage of getting a visa with 14%... WRONG again, angola has 12%... 55 selected & only 7 visa...
Click to expand...
Your numbers are wrong for Angola, Mr. I know nothing and do not want to know anything:
DV-2007 13 winners including family members, 4 visas including family members
DV-2008 27 winners, 4 visas
DV-2009 38 winners, 14 visas
DV-2010 46 winners, 6 visas
DV-2011 55 winners, not published visas
I never saw someone as hard headed as you...
Click to expand...
That is because you do not want to know anything, and also because you know nothing.

All you do is making up fact with no data at all, it's just something that come in your brain that somehow you think it is real... YOU DO NOT HAVE NO CLUE OF WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT...
Click to expand...
I know what I am talking about. You do not know what I am talking about.

Use your brain for once... I know it can hurt thinking, & you want to avoid a headeache but when you use the OFFICIALS number, you find out that the chances are not the same... You have the number under your blind eyes but still, you act like a dummy...
You allready did enough damage by LYING on wikipedia, do not come here & spread your errors
Click to expand...
All that goes because of your lack of education. Do you have high school education? Or do you use work requirement instead?
 
oh brother you won... but for your record... yes I made a mistake with 55 selected for 7 visa... but still, even using your wikipedia propaganda, for 2010, angola had a visa ratio of 13.04% still lower than senegal... So, argue with that mister i spread lie on wikipedia
raevsky said:
Those are including family members, Mr. I know nothing and do not want to know anything.
But those 22000 are just entrants, that means not including family members, Mr. I know nothing and do not want to know anything.

Your numbers are wrong for Angola, Mr. I know nothing and do not want to know anything:
DV-2007 13 winners including family members, 4 visas including family members
DV-2008 27 winners, 4 visas
DV-2009 38 winners, 14 visas
DV-2010 46 winners, 6 visas
DV-2011 55 winners, not published visas
That is because you do not want to know anything, and also because you know nothing.

I know what I am talking about. You do not know what I am talking about.

All that goes because of your lack of education. Do you have high school education? Or do you use work requirement instead?
Click to expand...
 
yes I made a mistake with 55 selected for 7 visa
Click to expand...
or 2010, angola had a visa ratio of 13.04% still lower than senegal...
Click to expand...
the highest chance to get a visa per winner in DV-2009 was Nepal, Asia (85.4%) and the lowest was Senegal, Africa (14.05%)
Click to expand...
It is good you are learning something, and it is good you can acknowledge mistakes. However, it is bad you are comparing apples to oranges again - do not mix data for 2009 and for 2010.
 
jayo2k bro....

with due respect and no offense intended.....

Some of your basic understanding of the DV drawing is statistically wrong.
The stats ARE NOT as simple as you want it to be, take my word for granted.
Can you take your time and try understand some of the intricacies of DV. Do not be jumpy and post right away things that you think you UNDERSTAND on a daily and or hourly basis.

I see that you joined this forum just a month ago and I assume your DV knowledge only that much old as well. Many of us have been here for years and seen MANY MANY types of 'arguments' related to DV. I can see your next step.....figuring out how KCC/DoS assign regional CNs to winners...good luck with that as well!

Like I said before, floor is yours.....roll and jump you may do. But I advise take it slow be patient.

Thats my only 2c for this (or any future) your NEW thread !!

Best!


PS: Just for the record, a very BASIC..........the appx. 100-110k TOTAL WINNERS they declare every year country wise ARE including derivatives. (probably only about 50-60k principals)
The total 50-55k DVs they INTEND to issue at the end for each year, that too is for PA+derivatives.
 
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ok, let say they count deriviatives... that would mean 2.2% for africa... still, how comes there is no much more nigerian selected?
& here some paradox as well
7% of the visa per countries that means 3500 visas per country... ok
0.68% of selected for asia that makes 52 000 bangladesh aplicans
30 000 nigerian & 13 000 for ukraine, thak makes a total of about 95 000 selected for just 3 countries & 5 000 for the rest (I will follow your strick logic & concider than no one get disqualified because the rules does not state that each year a certain percentage of entries per country will be disqualified).
so 95 000 selected for 10 500 visa that leave a huge amount of 39 500 visas for the 5 000 other selected (becausee no single country can get more than 7% meaning 3 500 visas, so 10500 visas for 3 countries)... so, is that too hard for you to see that something does not match? the rules was writen without disqualifying everyone each years...following YOURR strick rules, we come to this results of 39 500 remaining visas... how do u explain that wikipedia nobel price winner?
raevsky said:
It is good you are learning something, and it is good you can acknowledge mistakes. However, it is bad you are comparing apples to oranges again - do not mix data for 2009 and for 2010.
Click to expand...
 
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case number : first asian getting selected ifor DV 011 = 2011AF00000001
in my previous post i strickly followed "your" rules & I came to conclusion that there is a paradox somewhere because if we strickly follow the rule, that mean 95 000 selected will be from just 3 countries...
& also, because I didn't posted before so I wasn't following the DV...? Do you know some have life outside a forum right?

Could you just please explain my previous post which show lot & lot of hole in your DV rule
NuvF said:
jayo2k bro....

with due respect and no offense intended.....

Some of your basic understanding of the DV drawing is statistically wrong.
The stats ARE NOT as simple as you want it to be, take my word for granted.
Can you take your time and try understand some of the intricacies of DV. Do not be jumpy and post right away things that you think you UNDERSTAND on a daily and or hourly basis.

I see that you joined this forum just a month ago and I assume your DV knowledge only that much old as well. Many of us have been here for years and seen MANY MANY types of 'arguments' related to DV. I can see your next step.....figuring out how KCC/DoS assign regional CNs to winners...good luck with that as well!

Like I said before, floor is yours.....roll and jump you may do. But I advise take it slow be patient.

Thats my only 2c for this (or any future) your NEW thread !!

Best!
Click to expand...
 
Let me put it here more detailed & simpler :
OK, I count deriviatives.
The rules does not state that each year a certain percentage of winner should be disqualified thus 52 000 selected for bangladesh is possible.
But the rule says no more than 7% of all visa for a single country meaning no more than 3 500 visa.
ok
In theory :
Bangladesh can get 52 000 selected
Nigerian can get 30 000
& ukraine can get 13 500
that makes 95 500 selected for just 3 countries
no more than 7% so each of thoses 3 countries has a 3 500 visa limit that mean out of 50 000 visa, only 10 500 will be given...
95 500 selected for just 3 countries & 5 000 for the rest... that would mean (strickly theorical) 39 500 visa avaiable for just 5 000 selected...

Now, Could you see that something is wrong?

Sure the initial rule state what you say but seeing some huge hole in it, they probably adjusted it to avoid situation like the one i just mentionned...

Or keep being hard headed & believe that this situation can happen
 
30 000 nigerian & 13 000 for ukraine, thak makes a total of about 95 000 selected for just 3 countries & 5 000 for the rest (I will follow your strick logic & concider than no one get disqualified because the rules does not state that each year a certain percentage of entries per country will be disqualified).
so 95 000 selected for 10 500 visa that leave a huge amount of 39 500 visas for the 5 000 other selected (becausee no single country can get more than 7% meaning 3 500 visas, so 10500 visas for 3 countries)... so, is that too hard for you to see that something does not match? the rules was writen without disqualifying everyone each years...following YOURR strick rules, we come to this results of 39 500 remaining visas...
Click to expand...
As I said. Huge percentage of those are disqualified at KCC for obvious violation of DV instructions. They are not selected, not scheduled an interview.
The percentage is about 86% for Bangladesh. That is a lot. And the reasons for disqualifications are:
1. Using invalid photos (like empty images or image of a dog instead of a person)
2. Using completely duplicate images (coinciding as files) which means duplicate entries
3. Using images from previous years (violation of 6 month rule)
4. Might be other legitimate reasons.

For instance, #3 is likely to be the reason when a fraudulent company submits the same entries from year to year.
#2 could be the case when a company splits in 2, and both submit the same set of entries.
 
Tom-ate-o Tom-art-o

It's random if you're selected or not, there's no difference between having a 2% chance to win opposed to a 0.6% chance to win. The person with the 0.6% chance could be selected while the other person with the 2% chance would not of been selected at all. It's just all pure random people...
 
nah nah nah.. I am talking purely theorical... why is that you never answer a question when you find it against your thinking...?
Since you are right, then this situation I describe could happen right?
speak THEORICALY... Start calling a cat a cat & start answering 2+2 by 4 instead of by "well i saw ect..."
You do know that if you are right, a such situation can appear right?
Or maybe I wasn't simple enough... Let me add this :
Noboby posted duplicate entries, no photo error, no name errors no nothing & all entries were valid... (that is what theory is)
raevsky said:
As I said. Huge percentage of those are disqualified at KCC for obvious violation of DV instructions. They are not selected, not scheduled an interview.
The percentage is about 86% for Bangladesh. That is a lot. And the reasons for disqualifications are:
1. Using invalid photos (like empty images or image of a dog instead of a person)
2. Using completely duplicate images (coinciding as files) which means duplicate entries
3. Using images from previous years (violation of 6 month rule)
4. Might be other legitimate reasons.
Click to expand...
 
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I think I did answer all your questions. You just do not have 95000 selected, because 86% of those 95000 are disqualified.
 
I am talking purely theorical... why is that you never answer a question when you find it against your thinking...?
Click to expand...
So, that is a purely theoretical possibility - that I never answer questions? You mean practically I do? Does this resolve the question?
 
forget it... No wonder american want to cancel the DV, seeing your high level of inteligence, i would have wanted this DV to be canceled as well if I was an american & saw what kind of genius this lottery bring to this country...
 
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