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Hi Jack,
I regret to disagree with you this time, but cut-off dates from the past don\'t help to figure out the next possible cut-off date, they are not related. I\'ll give you an example, let\'s assume that 10000 I-485 applications were filed between mid-January 98 (last cut off date reported)and February 28, 1998, then the next cut-off date will be February 28, 1998 (moving only 1 month and a half).
But if, instead 10000 I-485 applications were filed between mid-January 98 and September 30, 1998, then the next cut-off date will be September 30, 1998 (moving eight and a half months instead). As you see, no relation with cut-off dates in the past. The key is to know how many I-485 applications were filed after mid January 98 on a monthly basis. Unfortunately, INS doesn\'t report this info; however, it can be figured out by making certain reasonable assumptions.
This excercise is not mathematics only, it is the result of using current information officialy released by INS and following the adjudication procedure followed by them as released by INS.
The big question we all have is when my application will be processed, and there are no answers for that, this exercise provides a relief to know if you have chances to be called in the next FY, but only the future will say if the prediction was accurate or not, meanwhile, also serves to provide material for a healthy and friendly discussion and exchange of opinions. Regards