Putting the CEAC data into words...

[SusieQQQ]

I'm not drawing any for now !

Sure but... You asked a question "how do you interpret it" ... You can't if you are only looking at the numbers in isolation. If these numbers are preceding at a slower pace than 2013 we have signs of big trouble for high CNs. If they are faster then it's more positive for high CN. We know the numbers do not go evenly over the year.

 

[vladek15425]

Exactly right.

Incidentally the original post contains a glaring in accuracy, the 34% of selectees responding was because at the time, I like some other, thought the 140k did not include family. It does. So, the number of responses in 2013 CEAC data was 66k. We knw that CEAC was about 10% short, so the real responses was around 70/75k out of the 110k. If the same pattern happens in 2014 (which I believe it will) around 45/50k will not respond at all.

Out of those that respond, around 20% will not show up for interview and around 15% will be denied visas. Those numbers are globally but regions and countries vary.

In the end, I believe around 60/65k people want visas and would get them if no limits were set, so about 10k will miss out. Some will miss out because of country cutoffs also (Nepal being the first and most definite country to hit the 7%)

So does this means you will readjust your predictions or does it still match with your initial ones?

 

[MalcomX]

All of that scares me as I think that this is the sad reality ...

Exactly right.

Incidentally the original post contains a glaring in accuracy, the 34% of selectees responding was because at the time, I like some other, thought the 140k did not include family. It does. So, the number of responses in 2013 CEAC data was 66k. We knw that CEAC was about 10% short, so the real responses was around 70/75k out of the 110k. If the same pattern happens in 2014 (which I believe it will) around 45/50k will not respond at all.

Out of those that respond, around 20% will not show up for interview and around 15% will be denied visas. Those numbers are globally but regions and countries vary.

In the end, I believe around 60/65k people want visas and would get them if no limits were set, so about 10k will miss out. Some will miss out because of country cutoffs also (Nepal being the first and most definite country to hit the 7%)

 

[vladek15425]

Sure but... You asked a question "how do you interpret it" ... You can't if you are only looking at the numbers in isolation. If these numbers are preceding at a slower pace than 2013 we have signs of big trouble for high CNs. If they are faster then it's more positive for high CN. We know the numbers do not go evenly over the year.

Let us wait 3 more months than we will may be have a better opinion of the data!
By the way I don't think sloner effect will have a bigger impact this year !.....

 

[vladek15425]

If purely based on CEAC data, it definitely a good news. As you pointed out 30k selectees interviewed only generate 16k visas. If the the same pattern continue, it need 90k selectees interview scheduled. 140k - 90k, we only need 50k non response selectees. So, all regions will be current. hope things are this simple.

Of course, Late responses to KCC and AP cases might destroy the all regions go current dream but possibility is stil there even is a very slim one.

Imagine the numbers are very realistic and with the readys number that is expending more and more !?