Originally posted by niladri30
Anyone figure out a pattern?
Can someone with a pattern recognizing brain (or software), therefore, predict probable dates for WAC 02-XXX, based on Kashmir's data?
Hi, S/W experts:
The statistics is a very valuable source. However, there is a gap that you should address somehow (I am not pretty sure that it is possible). You have found the gap. See the thread above.
I have come up with some statements that may or may not lead to a wrong conclusion.
1. I do not believe that the troubles have originated from lack of funding. Look at the other centers. They demonstrate better performance than CSC.
2. I do not believe that the troubles result from “bad guys” in the service. The System would have found a solution. Officers that are more active and who are probably trying to get a promotion would have found a way to pull out the bad ones.
3. I do not believe that the delays happened due to the reorganization. Let us assume that the system has not worked for 6 months of the reorganization. After six months, it starts working with the same speed. The overall delay would have been exactly six months for each case. The statistics says that the speed is not adequate.
Conclusion: The System considers the delays as necessary.
I have learned from your forum how painful the delay might be at this time. Companies disappear; people are laid off, losing their status and their application case. Now, it is simple to tell who an employer is. If the employer has not left the market or has not fired the applicant in these two tough years, the candidate will probably not be standing in line for Social Security benefits. The officers cannot make decisions on a personal basis. It is impossible for them to go through the case and to decide that this guy will be fine, but this might be not. They can check only the availability of necessary documents and the security background.
4. Why is CSC the worst guy? California is the mecca of high-tech. Cleaning the bay area now can help future employment prospects of American made gurus that have been laid off. It would then be accompanied by restrictions on H1’s revocation of I-140 etc to make citizens more marketable.
5. Your statistics say that there are a small percentage of cases through 2002 that keep moving even at this time. I do not believe that there are officers picking up cases out of the pile and going through them during their lunch time to estimate amount of expiring FPs (or to teach new officers). They are the System! My speculation is that they pick cases based on the employer, not the person.
The deficiency of your statistics is associated with this minute segment of fast cases. Who are their employers? Answering this question would help understanding the overall trend. A sophisticated Software will not help you. The spikes are deterministic.
Summary: Your statistics provide a good basis for a preliminary analysis. However, to understand what is going on, you should target these few fast cases to evaluate the trend.
Hopefully, the above is a pure speculation. Otherwise, the trends in the economy will be mirrored by trends in the immigration process and in our prospective very soon.