Processing Analysis and Trends From Rupnet

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paulclarke1

Registered Users (C)
I have been collecting weekly snapshot information from Rupnet for about 7 months now. Here is a copy of my spreadsheet. My conclusions are as follows.

1/. The NSC has not slowed down. It is actually going at the same pace that it always had. Any impression of greater speed was only being created by the backlog of 'worked' cases due to the December - January freeze.

2/. NSC are working on Dec cases. Any Jan & Mar information that we have seen is suspect. I also am reluctant to trust the 'script' data we are seeing because what we have seen in Rupnet over the past 6 months has been consistent with people posting in this formum. I have not seen one of the owners of these more recent RD's stand up and be counted. This lead me to the conclusion that they are an entirely different population of applicants. Perhaps I-130 based.

3/. Processing times are increasing. It seems to be taking about 3 months to process 1 months worth of cases. This is only to get to the first RFE or if you are lucky approval with no RFE. After that then final approval will depend on two things when you respond to the RFE and luck.

I am a March 02 case. At this rate I do nto expect to see RFE or approval for about 9 months. While that may make be feel bad. I pity the poor bastards who file their cases now. Unless something significant happens, they could have 72 month wait ahead of them.
 
Paul. ALthough your analysis is good but I dont think we can trust rupnet data. It may just account for less than 5% of cases or approvals.

I dont think it will take 6 years to get 485 approved. But it def wont be less than couple of years unless NSC start moving the pace. Lets be optimistic and look at VSC and CSC. they have already reached Dec officially. So lets not lose hope.
 
Not a Question of Hope

I don't think it is a question of hope.

I think your estimate of 5% is generous. My take is it is in the range of 0.5 to 1%. Even still it should be enough of a sample size for us to get an idea. Also it has the benefit of being consistent with what we are seeing from this forum. I have yet to see anyone stand up and be counted who has one of these March RD approvals. This leads me to conclude these approvals are from a different population. I am however prepared to conceed that the very process of loading our information to Rupnet and following this forum, means that perhaps we are not entirely representative group. However even having said that I cannot believe that we do not have enough diversity here to a least get a sniff of the truth. Show me a real person (without special circumstances) who has a March 02 RD case approved and I would be quite happy to recant my analysis. (PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG).

My estimate of 72 months, while pehaps a tad dramatic is indicative of what would happen to an application with an RD of June 03 if it continues to take 3 months to process each RD month. I don't want this to be the case, but if you look at how Sept, Oct and Nov 02 were processed overtime, I think it is conservative assuming nothing changes.

I don't want to believe this is the case, but have a look at how long it takes to get a priority date if you are bringing in family and you will see that this sort of time is possible.
 
Paul. Agreed !! But still the only hope would be to look at the processing times of VSC and CSC. But I guess the downside would be to look at the TSC folks.

I think it will be more work for INS to renew the EAD and AP for 6 years so I am sure something would be done about it. ALso most senators come and help out if the case takes longer than 18 months.

Lastly due to the economy being down I dont think that many people are filing for 485 these days. Even that might reduce processing times.

I am an Oct 2002 filer and I hope that things start moving soon. In the good old days my 485 would have come close to being approved by now !!!!
 
I still Think They Are Working on Dec 02

From looking at this for the last 7 months, I think there is a magic window of opportunity for your case. For most people their cases will be pulled out of cold storage in about the order of their RD. From what I can see if you don't get worked within a couple of months of this time then you have entered into the twilight zone, where your case falls into the black hole never to be seen again without some intervention. Meaning they probably have lost it or it has been moved into someones bottom drawer.

We are seeing enough regular approvals and RFE's to say they are working on December 02, of course they are also working much older cases, although I think that the super old no RFE category cases are a minority.
 
look at VSC,

they are moving like crazy embarrassing NSC to eat mud.
They are the open-minded and best managed INS in the entire world. NSC hiring few new officers and depending on hourly temp workers and trying to find any good management within.

No way NSC is moving at the same pace as VSC. If rupnet shows good representation for VSC then it should show similar to NSC. Same bunch, same herd only locations different.
 
The reason why we see so few RFEs or approvals for '02 filers compared to '01 filers is because of the sheer number of filers in '01 who have registered in Rupnet as compared to '02 filers registered in Rupnet.

I have always maintained that Rupnet is not a correct representation of 485 approvals. I use Rupnet to understand the kind of situations a 495 filer expriences with NSC wrt to RFEs. That's about it. Regarding processing times, there are no accurate measures .

One of more accurate measures would be Sheela Murthy's website where she gives updates on the approvals she has recieved from NSC with the following disclaimer :

"This information is based on dates indicated on Approval Notices received by our Office only. These are NOT official INS timeframes. Please note that every case is different and it may actually take the INS a longer or shorter period of time"

http://www.murthy.com/pt_losm.html

Unfortunately , her data too points to a Dec processing period which is more accurate than NSCs official published times
 
Still NOt Sure You Have Convinced Me.

Ghee

VSC may well be processing more cases, with less RFE's, however they still only seem to be at December 01. They also seem to have more cases to process. I am therefore not sure they are more efficent, just busier. If VSC was more efficent than NSC then they should be working later case months, there is no evidence of this.

DT,
I understand the limitations of using Rupnet data. However I think it is a somewhat accurate dipstick of NSC's activity. From what I can see of the data mined by the scripts, it is not applicable to the population using this forum. If anything the data from Murthy only supports my argument. There is no doubt in my mind that the 'official' NSC processing report is wildly inaccurate.
 
paul, so basically

we don't have any accurate info to assume this or that.

I assume rupnet to be "somewhat" accurate, I think guesstimatig to around 20% of all actually comeback and post their results. This adds up to few hundreds. This rule applies to both VSC and NSC.
NSC does't have any number to prove for January cases in rupnet but if you look todays and yesterdays VSC we see a lot of January cases.
That is only 10% of what is actually approved so need to divide by 0.1 to get the actual number.
 
What Paul is trying to say is correct. As far as I know, NSC is processing DEC 01 cases. Rupnet may represent only a miniscule portion of the actual cases but it has been a very consistent indicator of the unofficial processing dates of INS/BCIS. I am a DEC'01 applicant(RD 12/11/01, ND 12/14/01). I checked about 100 numbers before and 100 after mine and atleast 80% of them have been processed within the last month and most of them in June. Several RFEs have been sent out and the at the same time many applications were approved without an RFE.
Also, even among Rupnet users some dont actually update their cases with the most recent information. There is a one rupnet user among the DEC cases(LIN-02-062-5034x) who received an RFE around June 10th but never updated Rupnet with this info. There may be many more such people who casually forget these boards once their cases are looked at. Inspite of all these, Rupnet has given us an almost accurate indication of the time line of 485 processing dates, though we cannot say the same about the number of cases.
 
Besides,

Rupnet also indicates that many of the Jan02-Jul02 filers' FP have a date that's set to expire by the end of this year, given the fact that prints have a shelf life of 15-16 months.

Even in these troubling times, it seems BCIS still acts upon cases (RFE) within this time frame (12-16 months) strictly.

Unless they decide to make a mockery of this policy (send out waves of 2nd FP notices, meaning additional financial and workload related burden for the already beleaguered agency) adjudication would have to pick up from now on.

This time frame of 450-480 days (on the notice) even for very recent filers (04/2003) may be one such indicator.

At this hour what we need is participation and right inputs/updates in Rupnet.

<our corporate attorney indicates receiving approvals for Jan-02 >
 
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Your Corp Lawyer May Well Be Right

dipc

I have no doubt that your corp lawyer may be seeing approvals for Jan 02. This is not wildly inconsistent with Rupnet, and given its relatively small sample size, is easy to understand. I take this to be a confirmation of what we are seeing in Rupnet.

Personally I do not think the BCIS is working slow out of malice or that they are just inefficent. From what I can see is that the their workload has been increase, while (at best) their resources have remained unchanged. This is what is causing our waiting times to elongate.

As for your 12-16 month comment. Lets assume your lawyer is correct and they are working Jan (which I would love to be true), then those cases are now 17 months old. In my opnion many of us will get the 2nd FP and medical requests.
 
dipc are those from NSC?

I went and did my 2nd finger print before they even generated one, even in this case I see no indication that my case is moving ahead of everybody else!
 
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Paul,

U are absolutely right on your conclusions about LIN, as it is now.

If they indeed start sending out FP notices on a regular basis, it will be a moment of truth about virtually abandoning the EB 485 process. My take on this is, given their antipathy towards refinancing a procedure, they are going to come out with some workarounds.

About my assumption of the 15-16 month time frame, it's strictly based on the RFE dates till now.

It will be interesting to see how these Dec-01/Jan-02 filers who have a FP date of Jan-02/Feb-02 (17-16 mths) are handled, assuming these individuals understand the need and participate in the forum/Rupnet.
 
Ghee

On an update from my corp. lawyer about what was going on in Nebraska he replied

"
Right now, we are seeing BCIS approve cases filed in the November 2001 to January 2002 range. Yes, there are some older cases that are not yet approved, and some newer cases that are approved, but generally BCIS is running about 18 months on I-485 applications.
"

So I guess he meant Lincoln Jan-02 cases.
 
PaulClarke1 / Ghee.., I know for sure...

of at least one case from March 2002, that was approved.

This was a coleague of mine from my previous client's site. He got married after he applied I-485. He submitted his wife's petition some time in Oct. 2002.

He got his approval, however, his wife's is still pending.

So the data on Rupnet may not be wrong 100% (even if it is not correct 100%).

BCIS (formerly, INS) is as random as "Life Itself" (was just reading that book - by Francis Crick - last night).

StillWaiting...
 
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Stillwaiting2,
Just curious.... Did your friend's wife recieve the reciept notice before your friend was approved of GC? Hope she would have..

Paul, Gee and others,
All the above discussion is by taking statistics upto dec 01 and predicting for the months of 2002....
But early 2002, there were reduced number of I-140 approvals. Is it possible to guess that once BCIS starts approving 2002 cases, the RD's will roll faster than they are rolling now...
 
Peace...,

I did not happen to specifically ask him, neither did he tell.

But, the fact that his wife's case was initiated in Oct. 2002 (or around that timeframe), would mean that they did receive receipt (i.e. RD and ND information) before his approval (which was early this month).

StillWaiting...
 
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