Predictions for Apr 2006 visa bulletin
- Thread starter PHSESAaug
- Start date
ranvir_usa
Registered Users (C)
I am very optimistic
I am very optimistic to predict movement in dates for Indian for simple reason is that from start of 2005 we are facing retrogression.Earlier the cut off dates was Jan-2002 and went upto June-2002 and suddenly went back to 98 in October 2005 bulletin. Now most of us sure that from Jan 2005, visa numbers for people having priority dates > June 2002 has not been used if not approved before Jan 2005 i.e. lot of visa numbers could be available if USCIS themself saying that the demand for numbers are less than expected. I am sure even if there are hurdles, priority dates could move upto end of 2003 by this year end.
I am very optimistic to predict movement in dates for Indian for simple reason is that from start of 2005 we are facing retrogression.Earlier the cut off dates was Jan-2002 and went upto June-2002 and suddenly went back to 98 in October 2005 bulletin. Now most of us sure that from Jan 2005, visa numbers for people having priority dates > June 2002 has not been used if not approved before Jan 2005 i.e. lot of visa numbers could be available if USCIS themself saying that the demand for numbers are less than expected. I am sure even if there are hurdles, priority dates could move upto end of 2003 by this year end.
Moves by year if...
If it moves...it is moving by an year. So my guess for EB3-India is the Jan 2002 (I like this for my PD) or Jan 2001.
It seems to me that It may leap years forward for a short period of time and/or may witness backward jumps too in future. This my personal wild guess based on my confusion due to not understanding all retro discussions correctly.
I value if I could see some explained guess by experts like Saras.
If it moves...it is moving by an year. So my guess for EB3-India is the Jan 2002 (I like this for my PD) or Jan 2001.
It seems to me that It may leap years forward for a short period of time and/or may witness backward jumps too in future. This my personal wild guess based on my confusion due to not understanding all retro discussions correctly.
I value if I could see some explained guess by experts like Saras.
Couple of scenarios
Rose101,
It is almost futile to guess but there is no harm in speculating if one does not get their hopes up to high. Anyway, I think the the April bulletin hinges on a a few factors that will probably determine the movement. The first factor is the number of PDs prior to Jan 01 for EB3 India. I presonally do not think there are to many so this is a good indicator that the dates will move forward. The second factor is the DOS projection of how many pending 01 EB3 India PDs are there in the system. My guess is that they will be a little tentative on this one and will probably move the date to April 01. If they get bold with their projections then they mighty push it past April 01. At this point I think Jan 02 is over optimistic. I hope it jumps to Jan 02 but I will be pleasantly surprised if this happens. The third factor is the projected 245i cases. I believe the DOS has ascertained that there aren't that many 245is in the system. If they see a lot of them this month (very unlikely) then the dates may get stuck in May for Rest of the World and will indirectly have a negative effect on India. What is most likely is that the DOS will not see to many 245i this month and will continue the forward movement.
I forsee major problems towards the end of fiscal year 06 (Oct 06) and beginning of the new fiscal year (beyond 06). 245i cases may flood the system and the dates may be thrown back before April 01 at that point.
regards,
saras76
Rose101 said:
Rose101,
It is almost futile to guess but there is no harm in speculating if one does not get their hopes up to high. Anyway, I think the the April bulletin hinges on a a few factors that will probably determine the movement. The first factor is the number of PDs prior to Jan 01 for EB3 India. I presonally do not think there are to many so this is a good indicator that the dates will move forward. The second factor is the DOS projection of how many pending 01 EB3 India PDs are there in the system. My guess is that they will be a little tentative on this one and will probably move the date to April 01. If they get bold with their projections then they mighty push it past April 01. At this point I think Jan 02 is over optimistic. I hope it jumps to Jan 02 but I will be pleasantly surprised if this happens. The third factor is the projected 245i cases. I believe the DOS has ascertained that there aren't that many 245is in the system. If they see a lot of them this month (very unlikely) then the dates may get stuck in May for Rest of the World and will indirectly have a negative effect on India. What is most likely is that the DOS will not see to many 245i this month and will continue the forward movement.
I forsee major problems towards the end of fiscal year 06 (Oct 06) and beginning of the new fiscal year (beyond 06). 245i cases may flood the system and the dates may be thrown back before April 01 at that point.
regards,
saras76
Hi Folks,
Keep up the positive thoughts.
I had a quick question though, my PD is Feb 2001 and my I485 was filed in Aug 2004, do you think i might be lucky under the next VISA Bulletin ???
Any thoughts please post it, i am really really hungry for your inputs.
Thanks in Advance,
BAGUSAC.
Keep up the positive thoughts.
I had a quick question though, my PD is Feb 2001 and my I485 was filed in Aug 2004, do you think i might be lucky under the next VISA Bulletin ???
Any thoughts please post it, i am really really hungry for your inputs.Thanks in Advance,
BAGUSAC.
skp19722003
Registered Users (C)
2002?
My guess is within next fiscal year starts all the cases will be approved whose PD was before 12/31/2002. They dosent' have much old cases waiting, so obviously they have to touch 2002 cases.
My guess is within next fiscal year starts all the cases will be approved whose PD was before 12/31/2002. They dosent' have much old cases waiting, so obviously they have to touch 2002 cases.
Thanks a ton akhil1000,
Sad part is looks like I will be stuck with the Name check issue because in the month of Oct 2005 I had requested to provide my status and INS had sent an document stating we are currently waiting on Security check / name check on your case - And in the end they had requested to wait for 6 Months before I call back them and request for status.
Now with all this going i guess I am still in the waiting train.
Sad part is looks like I will be stuck with the Name check issue because in the month of Oct 2005 I had requested to provide my status and INS had sent an document stating we are currently waiting on Security check / name check on your case - And in the end they had requested to wait for 6 Months before I call back them and request for status.
Now with all this going i guess I am still in the waiting train.
My "educated" guess would be either April 2001 or Jan 2002 for EB3 India.
The thing for everyone to conisder is that, unless there is a change in law, some people will get a short window of opportunity to get their 485 approved. For instance, my PD is Oct 2002. Now we know for sure that unless the quota or the law surrounding it changes, EB3 India is bound to stop moving or retrogress before the year is over. The actual quota is too tiny to assume anything better. So when and if EB3 India PD moves to Oct 2002, my case should be ready and approvable before it changes back to "Unavailable". Of course, next year it will become available again but we don't know for which month. Based on a poll I initiated here:
http://immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=199116
there are a lot of 2001 and 2002 PD pending cases for EB3 India and thats why its so critical not to miss this window of opportunity.
I am just waiting for my 485 RD (Jan 2005 VSC) to become current so that I can initiate a query and see if my Name Check is cleared. Fingers crossed.
The thing for everyone to conisder is that, unless there is a change in law, some people will get a short window of opportunity to get their 485 approved. For instance, my PD is Oct 2002. Now we know for sure that unless the quota or the law surrounding it changes, EB3 India is bound to stop moving or retrogress before the year is over. The actual quota is too tiny to assume anything better. So when and if EB3 India PD moves to Oct 2002, my case should be ready and approvable before it changes back to "Unavailable". Of course, next year it will become available again but we don't know for which month. Based on a poll I initiated here:
http://immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=199116
there are a lot of 2001 and 2002 PD pending cases for EB3 India and thats why its so critical not to miss this window of opportunity.
I am just waiting for my 485 RD (Jan 2005 VSC) to become current so that I can initiate a query and see if my Name Check is cleared. Fingers crossed.