Prediction time.....

M

MadRascal

Registered Users (C)
I expected SC to start approving Oct \'99 in March \'01. Now they are a month ahead and they have already started sending Fops for Nov 99, though we haven\'t seen a lot of that. And it is only mid Feb... eeehaaaa. Now let\'s put some positive thinking into this. Lets hope that most of the Oct cases would be over by mid-March and most of November cases by the end of March \'01. And according to our immitracker, Dec to May \'00 cases totalled were much less than Aug \'99 cases (So putting it all together, I will get my AC sometime in August.... )

Optimism.....

If all ODs become current soon - I dot even canna think about the consequences....
 
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MadRascal

The immitracker numbers are skewed downwards - because some people post ONLY after they get info like FP/Approval.

E.g. Oct cases looked like half of Sep cases - but now it is looking
like Oct cases are 3/4 of Sep cases. So the skew is like 33% or more

If Oct 99 to Sep 00 cases = Aug and Sep 99 cases now
Then after some time you will find that Oct 99 to Sep 00 cases =
1.33 times Aug and Sep 99 cases.

So we should take about 6 months * 1.33 = 8 months to finish
Oct 99 to Sep 00 cases ! This means that VSC should be processing
Sep 00 cases by Sep 01.

PLUS - after march the H1B workload will slow down
MINUS - Priority date movement will cause them to revisit older
Aug 99 Sep 99 cases which were bypassed due to PD
 
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question & comments for CNEB1VSC
(are you China EB1 VSC ??)
Thanks for the very interesting analysis:

The variable "k" used by you is an average of several effects.
Can you indicate which effects would be in the variable "k" when
its based on an average ?

- H1B flood during Oct YY thru to March YY+1
  (k will go up and the rate of increase will go down)
- PD not being current after March 00
  (k will go up and the rate of increase will go down
   assumption: these guys have been WAITING a LONG time and will be
   likelier to vist sites like this and happier to post!
    -- I tend to favor this
   OR
   k will remain unchanged
   )

- PD movement which causes 485s which were shelved earlier to be
  revisited (the INS has to have some policy for such cases)
  (k will fall and and rate of increase goes up)

- VSC starts to look at cases for a particluar month
  (k will fall considerably and rate of increase will go up)
   I am sure this is incorporated into the average to a large extent
   and this is the dominant factor which contributes to k
 
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Raju Krishnan: Yes, thanks for the enlightening comments. I did not consider those factors specifically, but the registered data should include those effects. I was just looking from the statistic side. Interestingly, if you look at k=[0.94 0.74 0.83 0.96 0.94 0.86 0.67 0.73 1.10 0.88] from 09\'1999 through 06\'2000, there is not much variation among different months. The number of cases predicted based on the formula is not far off the scale either. For the months from 10\'1999 through 06\'2001 they are: [83/k^2 25/k^3 8/k^4 51/k^5 38/k^6 18/k^7 9/k^8 5/k^9 9/k^10]/(83/k^2)*6600 =[6600 2289 843 6192 5313 2898 1668 1067 2212] assuming 6600 cases for 10\'99.

One assumption I made in the prediction is that VSC process cases based on FIFO, but I had a hunch that they might also go ahead and process later cases with good PD and FP done. What do you think the VSC people would do while sending out 10\'99 cases for FP? They can not just wait for those 10\'99 cases. I am especially encouraged to see that somebody with 11\'99 RD just got approved. In that case my waiting time will be much shorter than 7 months.
 
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I agree with you - VSC will probably send out Oct + Nov cases and
start approving non-RFE cases during Feb 01 and RFE cases will be getting their approvals in March/April 01.

Only question is: When they come to April 01 will they start looking at only December 99 cases - OR - will they say Dec 99 has much fewer cases (there are not too many: I think they were deep into H1B processing at that time in 1999)- so lets move the 485 dates up to Jan 15th or even Jan 31st 2000 !

I am expecting this to happen - lets wait and see.
 
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cneb1vsc and raju krishnan,

this is what i thought. the time frame can be shortened since people from march onwards have already done with their fingerprints so the whole process is shortened. also there are a lot of people who are way ahead of the cut off date and who have completed all the formalities so their cases automatically have become aged out cases. i think vsc will send out fp\'s at random for cases all the way up to march and at the same time process cases whose pd\'s are current and respond to rfe\'s as an when they come in. just my thoughts.
 
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Message for CNEB1VSC

You just mentioned in your post that RD 11/99 case got approved.
I don\'t see any posting on this board about this.
Did you see it on any other web site?

thanks
PS1199
 
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